The Race For Second Place? : Record-Setting Bulls Are Clearly the Team to Beat, but Never Underestimate the Power of the Rodman Factor

Shaquille O’Neal to the Lakers?

Michael Jordan to the Knicks?

Dennis Rodman to Las Vegas?

The NBA faces a cataclysmic realignment and the impending playoffs will go a long way toward deciding who’s happy and who’s sad, who’s leaving and who gets left.

In this year of the free agent, woe betide the team that is upset early, loses its glow and finds itself unable to sign players it had hoped for, or keep the ones it needed.

The Bulls, solid favorites to win it all, depend on Jordan, Rodman and Coach Phil Jackson, whose contracts are up July 1, as are those of Magic Johnson, Elden Campbell, Reggie Miller and Gary Payton, to name a few.

Of course, with Rodman the Bulls face myriad possibilities. As a San Antonio Spur in 1993, when Madonna was attending games to cheer for him, he hip-checked John Stockton and was suspended during a first-round upset loss. Last year, Madonna was history, but he got himself suspended during a third-round upset loss.

Traded to Chicago, he lulled everyone to sleep with good behavior before head-butting a referee and waking them up. Bull fans are entitled to be edgy, even if he looks as if he’s back on the bus. His contract with Dell for his forthcoming book, “Bad As I Wanna Be,” has bonuses for reaching and winning the finals, but he’s Dennis Rodman, so one never knows.

The other teams have more prosaic worries, but those will keep them busy, nevertheless.

A look at the playoff series:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Chicago Bulls (72-10) vs. No. 8 Miami Heat (42-40)

* Season series: Chicago, 3-1.

The Bulls are clearly the class of the league, but did they burn themselves out in that drive to 70 victories? Scottie Pippen admits he would have rested sooner otherwise.

“Yes, I probably would have,” he says. “But it didn’t happen that way, so I can’t go back and say I’m going to do it now.”

On Feb. 20, Pippen was averaging 22 points and shooting 49%. Since, banged up and limping, he has averaged 16 points, shooting 40%, with only five 20-point games.

The Heat stumbled down the stretch (5-5 in its final 10 games), edging out the Charlotte Hornets (4-6). Coach Pat Riley is overmatched but has a history of firing up teams like his ’85 Lakers, who broke the Celtic jinx, or his ’91 Knicks, who almost upended the Bulls.

Oh, by the way, look for Riles’ guys to do anything they can to get Rodman upset.

No. 2 Orlando Magic (60-22) vs. No. 7 Detroit Pistons (46-36)

* Season series: Orlando, 3-1.

Detroit Coach Doug Collins’ no-longer-Bad Boys are a tough first-round matchup, but, as conference general managers note, you’re lost without a hulk to play against O’Neal.

Collins starts Mark West, who is two inches smaller than Shaq, 60 pounds lighter and 11 years older.

This is only the third postseason appearance for the Magic, who are 3-4 in first-round play, having been swept by the Pacers and lost a home game to the inoffensive Boston Celtics, a loss that turned last spring’s opening round into a harrowing experience. On sheer talent, the Magic is tops, but experience counts now. There are also continuing reports of dissension.

The Nice Boys are still over their heads in this one.

No. 3 Indiana Pacers (52-30) vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks (46-36)

* Season series: Indiana, 3-1.

The Pacers, Eastern finalists in Coach Larry Brown’s two seasons, are vulnerable with Miller out, but the Hawks were indiscreet enough to say they wanted to play them.

“I guess so,” said a Pacer official. “The alternative was Orlando.”

Atlanta Coach Lenny Wilkens still has a matchup problem with 6-10 Christian Laettner facing 7-4 Rik Smits and the huge Pacer front line: 6-11 Dale Davis, 6-10 Derrick McKey and 6-9 Antonio Davis.

When Miller goes unconscious, the Pacers go from a solid team to something special. Club officials hope he can make it back from his eye injury this series. However, TNT’s Cheryl Miller, who has good sources within the family, reported he might not be back at all.

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (47-35) vs. No. 5 New York Knicks (47-35)

* Season series: Cleveland, 3-1.

It’s hard to picture a team that starts Danny Ferry, Chris Mills, Michael Cage, Bobby Phills and Terrell Brandon in the playoffs, let alone with home-court advantage, but Cleveland Coach Mike Fratello pulled off his second annual miracle.

The Knicks, who ripped Coach Don Nelson (34-25), returned to form under Jeff Van Gundy, who started 11-6 but saw his honeymoon run out in a 2-4 stretch finish.

With the Knicks, the best fights are internal. After a loss to Seattle, Patrick Ewing said they were still a better title hope than the SuperSonics, to which Charles Oakley replied, “We talk a lot, but talk is cheap.”

Having returned to Slowtime, the Knicks have to slug it out against the Cavaliers’ Slowertime. The Cavaliers believe in what they’re doing; the Knicks are more talented but don’t.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Seattle SuperSonics (64-18) vs. No. 8 Sacramento Kings (39-43)

* Season series: Seattle, 4-0.

At least, after two consecutive first-round upsets, overconfidence is no longer a problem for the SuperSonics.

Maturity still is. While everyone else was on cruise control Sunday, Shawn Kemp threw a punch and got himself suspended for a game, suggesting they’re in playoff form.

The SuperSonics lost to the Denver Nuggets and Lakers, who had such big shot-blockers as Dikembe Mutombo, Vlade Divac and Elden Campbell. The Kings don’t have anyone that good, but Coach Garry St. Jean saved his job with a 9-5 finish, starting 7-footers Duane Causwell and Olden Polynice.

The SuperSonics may not survive another disappointment. Six of them are free agents.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs (59-23) vs. No. 7 Phoenix Suns (41-41)

* Season series: San Antonio, 3-1.

The Suns keep telling themselves they haven’t seen their team on the floor together all season. However, previews have indicated a dud.

If they can keep Hot Rod Williams sound--he was in and out the last two weeks--they will still have a creaky 33-year-old against David Robinson, who has something to prove after Hakeem Olajuwon ran over him last spring.

The Suns have enough firepower, but something good had better happen fast. Charles Barkley, who recently said he was hoping to be traded, isn’t cut out for bad times.

No. 3 Utah Jazz (55-27) vs. No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)

* Season series: Utah, 3-1.

The Jazz slipped from 60 victories to 55. The Trail Blazers caught fire. Hence, this is everyone’s upset special.

The Trail Blazers were 26-34 when embattled Coach P.J. Carlesimo, who was being advised to take the St. John’s job (and a $1-million cut in annual pay) negotiated another truce with Rod Strickland, started rookie Arvydas Sabonis and finished 18-4.

Carlesimo has the necessary bodies--Sabonis (7-3, 290), Chris Dudley and Buck Williams--to throw against Karl Malone, but the Jazz still has its wise old backcourt, Stockton and Jeff Hornacek. The Trail Blazers have to prove they aren’t still the Trail Blazers.

No. 4 Lakers (53-29) vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets (48-34)

* Season series: Houston, 3-1.

The most ballyhooed first-round series--witness the double-Saturday schedule to give NBC two weekend games--it’s also the hardest to predict.

What did the Lakers’ weeks of turmoil do to them?

What do the return of Clyde Drexler, Mario Elie and Sam Cassell mean to the Rockets?

The Lakers finished short-handed, beating nearly everyone they faced. With everyone back, the Rockets wobbled in, giving up an average of 112 points in their last six games.

Rocket Coach Rudy Tomjanovich baits opponents into double-teaming Olajuwon to get open three-point shots for other Rockets. Del Harris would like to play Olajuwon one on one and make the rest work for their shots. The Lakers will be on the beach early if they can’t keep the center matchup respectable.