Building Poses Risk to Farms, Report Says

With urban development relentlessly chipping away at farmland, a pillar of the Ventura County economy stands in danger of faltering, according to a report on the local agricultural industry released Wednesday.

The two-year study--conducted by University of California researchers, the California Coastal Conservancy and two local agricultural organizations--depicts an industry that pumps more than $2 billion annually into the local economy but is steadily losing some of its most productive cropland.

“This is a reality check,” said Larry Rose, president of the Ventura County Agricultural Land Trust and Conservancy, one of the groups that compiled the report.

Although farmers have adapted to the shrinking acreage by increasing their efficiency and planting more profitable crops, Rose said, such efforts will not solve the underlying problem.

“We are up against the wall, with a diminishing base,” said Rose, sales manager for Brokaw Nursery in Ventura. “We’ve done real well in terms of efficiency, but there’s not much else we can do.”

The study steers clear of recommending ways to protect the industry. But it does illustrate the cost of allowing development on farmland and shows how, by keeping development within or adjacent to city limits, communities could save as many as 1,500 farm-related jobs and protect $80 million in annual agricultural sales.

The report, funded by a local trust, was designed to take a snapshot of the county’s agricultural economy and, in so doing, answer questions crucial to the industry’s fate:

* What is agriculture’s full impact on Ventura County’s economy? How much money does the industry bring to local businesses, such as feed stores or pesticide services, that rely on farmers?

* At what point does the loss of farmland hurt agricultural-related businesses? If too many acres fall to development, will some of those businesses fold, driving up the price farmers must pay for goods and services?

* What are the costs to cities of allowing the construction of houses and shopping centers on farmland?

Despite the slow loss of land, the local agricultural industry remains economically powerful, the report found. Agriculture provides more than 8% of Ventura County’s jobs and 8% of the personal income earned in the county. In 1992, local farmers earned an average of $1,143 for each irrigated acre, almost three times the statewide average.

But the same mild climate that makes Ventura County farms so productive draws new residents. The county’s population increased 484% between 1950 and 1960 and is expected to reach 776,000 by 2000, the report said.

Just how those new arrivals will affect the agricultural industry depends on where cities put them, according to economic consultant David Strong.

As part of the study, Strong examined the effects of two growth scenarios. In one, cities concentrate development within or near their borders and increase the density of new housing. In the other, essentially an extension of current trends, more development takes place on farmland and features the kind of low-density neighborhoods of which Californians are so fond.

The result: If current development trends continue, housing for new residents will consume about 10,000 acres, much of it farmland, by 2010. With that cropland out of commission, about $192 million in agricultural sales would be lost.

If local cities opt for more compact development, however, only 5,900 acres would be needed to house the newcomers, the report predicts.

The number of acres in cultivation is important not just to farmers but to the many businesses they patronize. Strong also surveyed local agriculture-related businesses, trying to find the point at which shrinking cropland could force some of them into bankruptcy. On average, the businesses surveyed estimated that they would face bankruptcy if the cultivated acreage fell below about 63,600.

Although that seems a steep drop from the present figure of 101,483 acres, Strong said those businesses would start to feel the pinch far earlier and possibly lay off workers in response. The figure of 63,600 acres, he said, marks the point of collapse.

“That represents death,” he said. “So at a third of the way along, you’re pretty sick.”

The project manager for the study, Peter Brand, said that although the report includes some grim projections, it should not be taken as a prediction that the county’s agricultural industry is doomed. Ventura County is sufficiently aware of the importance of its farms that the industry should survive, he said.

The purpose of the study, he said, was to give local decision-makers a factual base for deciding how best to preserve farmland.

“If you’re going to start saving the best farmland in the country, what better place than Ventura County,” he said.