3 Strikes Caused Drop in Crime Rate, Lungren Says

Thank the three-strikes law for a 25-year low in the California crime rate, Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren said Monday.

The state’s 1995 crime rate--the number of violent or serious property crimes per 100,000 residents--dipped to 2,808, the lowest since 1970, Lungren said.

There were 2,897 such crimes per 100,000 residents in 1970, and 3,019 crimes per 100,000 residents in 1994, he said.

The total number of crimes in 1995 was 938,972, down 7.2% from the year before.

“In the three-strikes era--that is, since 1994--crime has dropped dramatically, with double-digit drops in virtually every single category,” Lungren told reporters at a Capitol news conference.

But some observers questioned whether three strikes deserved much of the credit, and warned that crime numbers could easily swing upward again.

The three-strikes law mandates a minimum 25-year sentence for criminals with two previous violent or serious felonies on their record and a third felony of any kind.

A recent ruling by the California Supreme Court softened the law to give judges more discretion in sentencing. But moves are underway in the Legislature to restore the law’s limits on judicial discretion.

Violent crimes--such as murder, rape, robbery and assault--fell 4.4% from the year before to 209,903. Burglary and car theft, both property crimes, totaled 718,394, an 8.5% decline from 1994.

Experts cautioned that the numbers do not tell the entire story.

“There’s a whole lot of crime out there that’s never reported,” said Craig Cornett, director of criminal justice and state administration in the legislative analyst’s office.

And even when reported, crime statistics can’t always be trusted, said Ron Adamik, president of the California State Police Assn.

“If a police chief wants to keep his job, he’s going to underreport crime,” he said. “Statistics are nothing but a game.”

The word from the street was also skeptical.

“Our officers are probably facing a more dangerous time than they did in the ‘60s or even 1970,” said Jon Hamm, executive manager of the California Assn. of Highway Patrolmen. “It’s not uncommon for our guys to get shot when they’re pulling someone over for a traffic stop.”