And the Winner Will Be . . .

By BRIAN LOWRY

Sept. 11, 1996 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

Television executives frequently use war analogies when discussing the prime-time ratings. If so, the 1996-97 season’s “battle” can be broken down to nightly skirmishes on seven different fronts.

Networks approach the schedule night by night, hoping to establish successful programming blocks and eventually attack elsewhere by redeploying those troops throughout the week.

Prime-time leader NBC has used that strategy by spinning shows from TV’s most valuable real estate, its Thursday lineup, to Tuesday, Sunday and now Wednesday, where the network is launching another two-hour block of sitcoms anchored by the well-traveled “Wings” and “NewsRadio.”

NBC appears virtually certain to repeat as the ratings champ, buoyed by its Thursday murderer’s row of “Friends,” “Seinfeld” and “ER.” ABC may actually win more nights, but the Peacock network’s overwhelming Thursday strength--combined with serious challenges on Tuesday and Friday, nights ABC once dominated--is expected to result in a substantial victory margin each week.

With some of its long-running hits losing steam, ABC figures to be a more distant second and challenged in overall ratings by CBS, which still figures to finish well back in the key demographics that dictate advertising rates. Fox can make inroads thanks partly to televising major sports events such as the Super Bowl and World Series.

To analyze the new season, The Times asked two former network presidents and a pair of advertising agency handicappers to appraise how the schedules stack up.

Fred Silverman oversaw programming at all three networks before forming his own company, producing such shows as “Diagnosis Murder” and the “Perry Mason” movies. Kim LeMasters headed CBS Entertainment from 1987-89 during a 13-year tenure at the network and is currently president of producer Stephen J. Cannell’s company. Mike Clark and Chuck Bachrach monitor prime-time viewing trends for Leo Burnett USA and Rubin Postaer & Associates, respectively.

In general, after a season in which combined viewing of ABC, CBS and NBC fell, the network alumni offer little optimism about stemming that tide.

“I don’t see a major change in the rankings, nor do I see a show that’s going to go on the air and become a smash hit,” Silverman said. “By and large, my overall reaction is there’s too much of the same. I don’t see any attempts to really try to shake things up a bit.”

LeMasters agreed, citing a shortage of risk-taking programs despite the addition of new networks and a proliferation of shows. “Nobody is developing counter-programming,” he said. “Everybody has the exact same template.”

Bachrach and Clark were slightly more enthusiastic. They each called ABC’s Michael J. Fox comedy, “Spin City,” “the hit of the season,” and both are high on the Fox network’s “Millennium”--the latest show from “The X-Files” creator Chris Carter--and CBS’ new sitcom “Everybody Loves Raymond.” The latter may be a true longshot by airing Fridays, a night on which CBS has traditionally struggled.

Of the 39 new prime-time network programs, it’s assumed certain shows--particularly the Brooke Shields NBC comedy “Suddenly Susan” (which is sandwiched between “Seinfeld” and “ER”) and “Spin City” (scheduled after “Home Improvement”)--will perform well because of their time periods.

The question is how well. Bachrach suggested that expectations for Shields’ show will be high based on NBC’s promotional barrage during the Olympics, which could result in a letdown if the series doesn’t live up to the hype.

The networks clearly need some breakthrough hits to sprout from the new series crop, with “The Simpsons” and “Seinfeld” beginning their eighth seasons; “Roseanne,” “Coach” and “Murphy Brown” entering their ninth; and “Married . . . With Children” starting season No. 11.

Another question is how key gambles involving returning shows pan out with more than two dozen series in new time periods (in some cases on different networks). Silverman and LeMasters credit CBS with the best move by flying “Touched by an Angel” from Saturdays to Sundays, inheriting the post-”60 Minutes” slot that once belonged to “Murder, She Wrote.”

In a sign of TV’s crowded times, the new season features six-network nights on Mondays and Wednesdays, thanks to UPN and WB, which also program Tuesdays and Sundays, respectively.

The following is a night-by-night look at the new TV season, which officially begins Monday:

Monday

All eyes will be on Bill Cosby’s new sitcom, “Cosby,” leading off a revised CBS lineup that includes “Murphy Brown” and “Cybill.” (“Ink,” the Ted Danson show initially scheduled for 8:30 p.m., will be replaced by Rhea Perlman’s “Pearl” until at least mid-October.)

Bachrach thinks viewers will sample “Cosby” out of curiosity but questions how many will stay with the show. “I think long-term they’ve got a problem,” he said.

NBC leads into its 9 p.m. movie with “The Jeff Foxworthy Show,” a transplant from ABC, and new sitcom “Mr. Rhodes.” ABC offers a drama based on the movie “Dangerous Minds” after old standby “Monday Night Football,” and Fox introduces new comedies after “Melrose Place,” “Lush Life” and “Party Girl,” which Bachrach sees as prime candidates to be the season’s first cancellations.

LeMasters forecasts “Cosby” performing well with older viewers but says it will have a hard time attracting younger audiences, among whom “Melrose Place” should remain the favorite. “It’s a coin flip among the rest of it,” he said. “They’re all scrambling for what’s left over.”

“I don’t see a clear-cut winner,” said Silverman, who added that CBS should benefit somewhat by moving “The Nanny” and “Dave’s World” to Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

Tuesday

NBC, with “Mad About You” and “Frasier” at 8 and 9 p.m., has mounted a legitimate challenge to ABC’s lineup, anchored by “Roseanne” and “Home Improvement.” CBS and Fox continue with movies, while UPN has a modest success on its hands with “Moesha.”

“Roseanne” is “starting to show some signs of fatigue,” as Bachrach put it, and could be vulnerable against “Mad About You” leading off the night; still, most agree “Spin City”--playing opposite “Caroline in the City”--will make the difference overall, seeing the matchup between Michael J. Fox’s show and the second-year NBC series starring Lea Thompson (who played his mom in the “Back to the Future” movies) as no contest.

“They’re going to hurt ‘Caroline in the City’ and then keep [viewers] for ‘NYPD Blue,’ ” Clark said.

Similarly, LeMasters foresees “a fairly dead heat between ‘Roseanne’ and ‘Mad About You’ ” but thinks ABC has considerable growth potential with “Spin City.”

Silverman calls the night “a horse race between NBC and ABC. To me it’s too close to call.”

Wednesday

With 16 comedies scheduled from 8 to 10 p.m. on ABC, NBC, CBS and WB, Bachrach sees ABC, led by “Grace Under Fire,” retaining its No. 1 position on a night characterized by mediocrity all around.

NBC seemingly ran out of its strongest shows when it reached this night, so “Wings” and “NewsRadio” get the call against ABC’s “Ellen” and “Grace Under Fire.” Six new comedies are scheduled, making the confusion that much greater.

“It’s just too much,” Silverman said of the comedy logjam. “It’s totally going to confuse everybody. The clear beneficiaries are going to be the people who have dramas there”--namely, Fox, with “Beverly Hills, 90210,” and UPN, which beamed “Star Trek: Voyager” onto that night.

Clark and LeMasters see many viewers abandoning the networks and going to cable instead. Among the networks, “the winner will be ‘90210,’ since everyone else is battling for the same audience,” said LeMasters, who pegs NBC’s “Men Behaving Badly” as perhaps the season’s most distinctive new comedy.

Thursday

In a nutshell, it’s NBC by a mile. The other networks have punted at 10 p.m. by scheduling two news programs, “Turning Point” and “48 Hours,” against “ER.” Fox holds its own with “Martin,” “Living Single” and “New York Undercover,” but ABC--even with a revised “Murder One” at 9 p.m.--and CBS are left to wrestle for what’s left over.

For ABC and CBS, LeMasters said, “It’s just going to rain. There’s nothing you can do.”

CBS offers one new show, “Moloney,” with Peter Strauss as a police psychologist. “If you like him, watch it quickly, because it isn’t going to be on that long,” Bachrach said.

Friday

CBS moves “Dave’s World” here and introduces a new spy drama starring Scott Bakula, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” leading into the Don Johnson show “Nash Bridges.” ABC will try to invigorate its “TGIF” comedy block with “Clueless” and “Sabrina, the Teenage Witch,” while Fox has taken the biggest gamble, moving “The X-Files” to Sunday and replacing it with “Millennium.”

With all that movement, Silverman sees NBC’s unaltered roster of “Unsolved Mysteries,” “Dateline NBC” and “Homicide” as a possible beneficiary. “I think NBC, by standing pat, will actually improve. You could see their news hour get numbers that are comparable to ‘20/20,’ ” he said.

As for Fox’s decision to relocate its top-rated show, LeMasters said, “This is really an interesting/questionable move. You’re betting the franchise that ‘Millennium’ can draw equally to ‘The X-Files.’ That’s a huge bet.”

Both Clark and Bachrach, however, think the gamble will pay off, with “Millennium” retaining most of the “X-Files” audience. Clark is also high on ABC’s “Clueless,” which “could enamor a lot of the young audience,” and “Everybody Loves Raymond,” featuring comic Ray Romano. “I think it’s got a shot,” Bachrach said.

Saturday

CBS has owned Saturday with “Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman” and “Walker, Texas Ranger.” Silverman thinks the network will remain on top but could lose some steam with a new show, “Early Edition,” bridging the gap left by “Touched by an Angel.”

In a slugfest between aging comedies, Fox moves “Married . . . With Children” to 9 p.m. and ABC counters with “Coach.” At 10 p.m., ABC serves up “Relativity,” a new drama from the creators of “thirtysomething” that the network hopes will capture fans of NBC’s “Sisters,” which aired in that time period before being canceled. According to Bachrach, it’s “a very nice show, [but] it’s a two-hour movie with nowhere to go.”

NBC will try three new dramas in the mold of “The X-Files” that Clark said may suffer from “too much ‘me-too-ism.’ ”

“NBC proved last year with ‘JAG’ they’re pretty damn good about opening a show,” said LeMasters, who forecast that NBC’s heavily promoted leadoff show, “Dark Skies,” will open reasonably well. The problem, he noted, is that the younger viewers NBC is after may not be available that night.

LeMasters added that ABC’s schedule--shifting from drama to comedy and back again--is probably too incompatible to succeed, and Clark concurred, calling the night “kind of a quasi-disaster all the way around.”

Sunday

With the addition of “Touched by an Angel,” CBS is viewed as the likely choice to reliably win this night in overall homes, as the network did for years before moving “Murder, She Wrote” last season. “There are indications based on the initial ratings [that] CBS made the right choice and has strengthened themselves” with the move, Silverman said.

ABC was the only network to stand pat. LeMasters thinks NBC has the edge with younger viewers thanks to moving the comedies “3rd Rock From the Sun” and “Boston Common” into the 8 to 9 p.m. hour, while “Dateline NBC” continues opposite “60 Minutes.”

Fox, meanwhile, is hoping men watching its football games will hang around for “The Simpsons,” “Ned & Stacey” and “The X-Files,” which will go up against stiffer competition in facing the three Sunday movies.

“ ‘The X-Files’ has such a strong cult following, it’s a show that people will seek out,” Clark said.

LeMasters wouldn’t be surprised to see the other networks throw some big guns against the show’s first Sunday telecast in October. “If I was competing with Fox, I would do everything I could do to destroy its opening there,” he said.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Main Event

“Roseanne” versus “Mad Aout You” Tuesday nights a 8.

“ROSEANNE: TALE OF THE TAPE

Network: ABC

Beginning Season No.: 9

Ratings Average (last season): 12.4

Best Ratings Season: 1988-89 (23.8)

Knockouts: “Reasonable Doubts” and “Wolf”

Emmy Nominations: 25

Emmy Wins: 4

Intangibles: John Goodman’s presence diminished