60% of State’s Voters Say They Back Prop. 209

By a wide margin, California voters continue to support Proposition 209, the initiative on the Nov. 5 ballot that prohibits the use of affirmative action in government hiring and contracting, and in college admissions, a Los Angeles Times poll has found.

The poll also delivered a mixed message on affirmative action programs generally. A plurality of those surveyed said they support public and private programs to help women and minorities, but a plurality also said they think the programs have gone on too long.

Registered voters favor Proposition 209 by 60% to 25%. That is virtually unchanged from July, when a Times poll found voters backed it by a 59%-29% margin.

“Right now, its support looks very solid and it looks like it’s going to win,” said Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Times Poll. She added, however, that if the opponents of Proposition 209 raise enough money to wage a major campaign, the numbers could change.

On other issues, the Times poll found that voters favor an initiative to increase the minimum wage in California by an even bigger margin than the anti-affirmative action measure, and favor a ballot measure to permit medicinal use of marijuana.

They oppose two measures to increase health care regulation, and another to expand the right to sue. Opponents are attacking those three initiatives in a high-priced advertising campaign.

The poll showed that few people are aware of the specifics of any of the measures, but had opinions once the propositions were explained.

The poll surveyed 1,333 Californians, including 1,059 registered voters, over a four-day period ending Tuesday. Half of those surveyed were asked about three of the measures, and half were asked about the other three initiatives. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

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Californians heading to the polls Nov. 5 will find a ballot loaded with a dozen initiatives and three bond acts. Six weeks from election day, slightly more than half the voting population is unaware of the specifics of the measure stirring the most debate, Proposition 209.

Proposition 209 would add a state constitutional amendment banning affirmative action in state and local government hiring, contracting and college admissions. The measure would prohibit government programs that boost education and employment specifically for women and minorities.

When Proposition 209 was described to voters polled by The Times, Proposition 209 led by 59% to 28% among likely voters, with 13% undecided.

The initiative was supported by most groups, including young voters, the elderly, high school graduates, people with college degrees, men, women, Democrats and Republicans. Even liberals favor the measure, but by a slight margin, as do Latinos.

But African Americans continue to oppose it, and there is a gender gap, Pinkus said. The poll showed that 67% of men supported the measure, while 54% of women surveyed back it.

Pollsters asked people surveyed which of three statements was closest to what they believe: Affirmative action should be continued because discrimination is common; discrimination is common but affirmative action has gone on too long, or affirmative action no longer is necessary because discrimination largely has been eliminated.

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The poll showed that 41% of registered voters believe that although discrimination is common, affirmative action programs have simply gone on too long.

An additional 13% believe affirmative action no longer is needed. People convinced that affirmative action has gone on too long or is not necessary overwhelmingly support Proposition 209.

By contrast, 37% of registered voters favor continuing affirmative action, believing discrimination remains common. This group, however, is divided over its support for the measure.

Support for Proposition 209 has dipped only slightly from 1995 and early this year, when The Times first polled on the issue. Then, 66% of registered voters backed the proposed constitutional amendment.

Gov. Pete Wilson and other GOP leaders tout Proposition 209, hoping it will generate interest in the election and draw voters to the polls who will support Republican candidates.

Although the poll showed substantial support for Proposition 209, Californians generally support the goals of affirmative action, the poll found.

The poll showed 43% of registered voters said they supported both public and private affirmative action to help women and minorities get better jobs and education, while 37% oppose it.

The poll also shows that nearly half the voters who say they favor affirmative action programs nonetheless intend to vote for Proposition 209. And 36% say they will vote against it.

Just as the GOP hopes to use affirmative action to elect Republicans, Democratic Party leaders and organized labor are counting on the minimum wage measure to draw occasional voters to the polls, and help Democrats reclaim legislative seats lost to the GOP in the 1994.

The minimum wage initiative, Proposition 210, has even wider support than the affirmative action measure, leading among likely voters 71% to 22%, the poll showed.

Proposition 210 lost some of its luster--but not support--when Congress approved an increase in the federal minimum wage to $5.15 an hour. The California measure would boost the state minimum wage in two steps, from the current $4.25 to $5.75 in 1998.

Democrats overwhelmingly support the wage boost, 80% to 9%. But even 62% of self-described conservatives support it. Registered Republicans endorse it by a similar margin.

In a series of questions about the environment, the Times poll found voters are willing to protect the environment even if it means some job loss.

The poll showed that 45% of California voters surveyed favor protecting the environment, even if it means some people would lose their jobs, while 27% believe jobs should take precedence over the environment.

The issue has significance in Sacramento, where Wilson and Republican lawmakers often call for reductions in environmental protections, saying such regulations cost Californians jobs.

On one environmental issue--protection of California’s coastline--the poll found that only 6% of voters believe the state is doing too much to protect the coastline.

Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed believe California government is not doing enough to protect the coast, while 40% believe it is doing about what it should be doing.

Voters also are at odds with many elected officials over the issue of medicinal use of marijuana.

The Times poll showed that by a 53%-31% margin, likely voters are supporting a first-in-the-nation initiative to permit marijuana use by people suffering from diseases such as AIDS, cancer, glaucoma and other chronic or fatal conditions.

The measure, Proposition 215, has support among most groups surveyed, except Republicans, who are split.

The marijuana measure is opposed by Wilson, Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole, and President Clinton’s drug czar, Barry McCaffrey.

Meanwhile, the poll found that two complex union-backed initiatives to increase regulation of the health care industry were trailing.

The poll showed that when the measures were explained, 37% of likely voters would vote against both, with 20% unsure how they would vote.

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The poll suggests a likelihood that voters will be confused by the competing health care measures, Propositions 214 and 216. It shows 17% of likely voters say they will vote for both, while 13% say they will vote for Proposition 216, and 11% say they will vote for Proposition 214.

Propositions 214 and 216 have common features, including provisions to protect the jobs of doctors who give patients their best medical advice and establish higher staffing standards at hospitals.

Proposition 216 goes further, authorizing taxes on health care companies, and setting up an agency to oversee the health care industry. The California Nurses Assn. is the main backer of Proposition 216. The Service Employees International Union, which also represents nurses and health care workers, backs Proposition 214.

Led by insurance companies and health care corporations, foes of Propositions 214 and 216 have been airing television ads featuring “twins” deriding the two measures. Supporters have not responded with ads.

The poll also found little support for Proposition 211, which would make is easier for attorneys to sue corporations in state court over stock fraud. Forty-two percent of likely voters oppose the measure, with 26% in favor. An additional 32% are unsure.

The initiative is sponsored by San Diego lawyer Bill Lerach and his law firm, which specializes in stock fraud lawsuits. Lerach helped devise the initiative after Congress last year approved legislation limiting securities litigation in federal court.

Opponents include securities dealers, insurance companies, accountancy firms and high-tech corporations, all of which are targets of shareholder lawsuits. The opponents raised $5.2 million in the first half of 1996, and have launched a major television and radio campaign attacking Proposition 211.

A Mixed Message

California registered voters continue to support Proposition 209, which would ban discrimination and preferences in state and local hiring, public education and public contracting.

How do you think you’ll vote on Prop. 209?

Vote for: 60%

Vote against: 25%

Don’t know: 15%

However, a plurality still say they support affirmative action programs generally.

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Do you favor or oppose public and private affirmative action programs?

Favor: 43%

Oppose: 37%

Don’t know: 20%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll