The Message and Messenger Hurt Dole

Let’s face it, the impolite truth is that the vast majority of us think this presidential race is all but settled. Bob Dole will make one last lunge for the tape--or maybe the jugular--in the final debate next Wednesday. Then, if present polls are on target, it’s a matter of TV networks falling all over themselves to project the obvious. There will be the congratulatory phone call to President Clinton, the gracious concession speech and White House gloating. Followed by the ugly inevitable--a Republican autopsy to affix blame. Was it the message or the messenger?

It is both, particularly in California. But it will be interesting to see how many Republicans--strategists, leaders, politicians, activists--see it that way.

Party die-hards will cut up the messenger, arguing that he did not forcefully articulate conservative principles. Others will blame the message, not just the campaign message--whatever that is--but the louder, more boisterous message beamed by Republicans in recent years, especially since their 1994 “revolution.”

Both message and messenger have turned off mainstream swing voters, polls have shown. Much of the basic GOP message was beyond Dole’s control, but not all. Similarly, while he’s the messenger, a lot of what Dole is he cannot help.

His age, for example. A Times poll last March found that 43% of California voters thought Dole was too old to be president; 56% of those over 65 felt that way. The former Senate leader may be quick with a quip, but his rough voice and oft-annoying speaking mannerisms--”Bob Dole, Bob Dole”--are constant reminders of his 73 years.

However, his biggest problem as a presidential candidate is a message that has confused and scared voters.

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Who is Bob Dole? Is he the respectful gentleman we saw in Sunday’s debate, or--what most people always suspected--the bomb thrower he now hints at being in the San Diego debate?

Is he the NRA panderer who will lead the fight for repeal of the assault weapons ban, or somebody who really doesn’t care? Is he afraid to accept campaign money from gay rights groups or not? Is his first priority balancing the budget or cutting taxes? Is he against affirmative action or is he ambivalent? Does he have “tolerance” for people--most Americans--who believe in abortion rights?

The powerful national leader or some old retired guy in a light sport coat looking for a job?

It’s hard to keep up. And the more we try, the more we figure it’s a waste of time. As Dole once told some GOP leaders, half jokingly, he could be anybody they wanted, even a Ronald Reagan.

But Reagan knew what he believed. No polls or focus groups necessary. (And, yes, that’s one reason Clinton is no Reagan either.)

Besides the confusion, there’s a blaring part of the message that scares voters and this is Dole’s biggest burden. It’s the message of extremism that has dogged the GOP off and on for 32 years. Reagan could talk around it with warmth and humor. From the mouths of Newt Gingrich and company, however, it sounds arrogant and signals alarm.

“We on the inside carelessly threw around certain words that scared the American people--words like ‘revolution’ and ‘radical’ change,” concedes GOP consultant Sal Russo. “To Americans, that sounds extremist.”

It’s a right-wing tone that Dole’s TV ads have not been able to change. It’s an unpopular sound of guns and wilderness degradation, of attacking Medicare benefits and a woman’s right to an abortion.

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Observes Susan Pinkus, acting director of The Times Poll: “The Republicans should have learned their lesson from Clinton and his health care proposal. People don’t want radical change. They want gradual change.”

Consider these results from various Times surveys of California voters:

* 65% favor abortion rights.

* 67% oppose carrying concealed handguns.

* 61% think Dole’s proposed 15% tax cut is unrealistic.

* 45% favor protecting the environment even if it costs jobs and tax money. Only 27% prefer jobs over the environment. By 2 to 1, Clinton is considered best on this issue.

* Voters would look much more kindly on a member of Congress who opposed Gingrich than one who supported him.

* By 2 to 1, they believe Clinton better understands the average American.

* 92% think tobacco is addictive. (Dole wasn’t sure.)

Republicans began this century with Teddy Roosevelt, the Bull Moose who carried a big stick abroad and took on big business at home. He was an environmentalist, a reformer and a landslide winner. Somewhere within the GOP, there must be a modern-day TR to open the next century.