Hits and Misses : Raiders Earn a Dubious Spot Over Free Agents and Contenders Get Sized Up for the Stretch Run

NFL owners have convened here at the halfway mark of the season, and although awards will not be passed out at the Hotel Intercontinental, they will be here.

Worst Free Agent Signing By An Owner Who Should Know Better: No suspense, but a tie between two guys most likely to field last-place fantasy football league teams: the New York Jets’ Leon Hess and the Oakland Raiders’ Al Davis.

Only eight regular-season games after Pittsburgh’s Neil O’Donnell threw footballs to Larry Brown in Super Bowl XXX--and remember, Brown was playing for the Dallas Cowboys--both players are parked on the bench, a giant waste of money.

“Every year it becomes more and more evident that free agency is not the answer,” said one AFC executive, who does not wish to remind Davis of his inability in recent years to evaluate talent. “The talent pool is getting smaller and smaller because teams believe it’s better to lock up players--players they might not even be all that infatuated with--rather than overspend on the free-agent market.”

The exception, of course, is San Francisco, where the 49ers continue to pluck free-agent gems. This year’s addition of defensive ends Roy Barker and Chris Doleman demonstrates that some people in the Bay Area know something about football.

“What we saw this year on the free-agent market were two players who were overpaid to play in systems that do not suit them,” the AFC executive said. “Frankly, it doesn’t make sense.”

What makes sense, apparently, is hiring the right coach--sorry about that, St. Louis--and having a woebegone quarterback like Gus Frerotte or Jim Harbaugh or Ty Detmer or Mike Tomczak.

Staking a team’s fortunes on a guy like O’Donnell is ludicrous. Hand him $25 million after he single-handedly loses the most recent Super Bowl with three interceptions? Now you know why Leon Hess has Rich Kotite coaching his team.

Davis’ thought process is much more jumbled. He signed a pair of Cowboys, Brown and Russell Maryland, for $31.5 million, as if hijacking a little Dallas magic was going to inspire greatness in lugs like Harvey Williams, James Jett and Pat Harlow.

Neither Brown nor Maryland fits the Raider mold. Besides being a nice guy, Maryland is a small, slashing defensive tackle on a team that employs bulk up front. Brown was a zone cornerback in Dallas, who had lost his starting job before Kevin Smith went down with an Achilles’ tendon injury. Brown lacks the speed to play the aggressive man-to-man defense the Raiders rely on so heavily.

How bad has Brown been? He didn’t play a down in one game earlier this season because San Diego wide receiver Tony Martin had embarrassed him a week earlier. It was the first time in his high school, college or pro career that he had stood on the sideline without getting into a game.

“I just don’t know the plays,” Brown said in his own defense.

Imagine his problems if he played for a team with a sophisticated defense.

Could the Raiders have been so gullible as to sign Brown based on one performance in a Super Bowl?

“Anybody who knows sports knows that’s ridiculous,” Brown told reporters recently.

But what about anyone who knows Al Davis?

“Nobody sees one game and says now, ‘I’m a great player,’ ” Brown said. “I started five years at Dallas. I picked off six balls last year and took two back [for touchdowns]. I picked off another in the NFC championship game that helped us to win. I started 85 straight games in Dallas. Anybody who says that is wrong.”

But that’s the only way to explain away this blunder.

Recently, the Raiders have begun playing Brown more, although he has been bothered by a sore foot. Still, he wasn’t deemed good enough to start ahead of James Trapp when Albert Lewis was hurt.

Sports Illustrated recently exaggerated, calling Brown “perhaps the worst free-agent signing of all time,” but the magazine obviously overlooked Nate Odomes, signed by Seattle after playing in the 1994 Super Bowl for Buffalo. Odomes never played a down for the Seahawks after tearing up his knee in a charity basketball game.

But second place as the all-time worst free agent signing ain’t bad--especially coming so soon after being named the Super Bowl’s most valuable player.

How this season will finish and other halfway awards:

NFC WEST

San Francisco (6-2) brings back John Brodie to play the final game after going through Steve Young, Elvis Grbac, Jeff Brohm and Gino Torretta. The 49ers’ loss to Green Bay earlier this season leaves them standing in the cold if tied with the Packers for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Huge games ahead with Dallas and Washington may determine the first-round home-field edge. Projected finish: 11-5.

Carolina (5-3) may stay close to San Francisco in the next three weeks with games against opponents with a combined record of 5-19, but the Panthers have shown no inclination to win on the road, and they have four trips remaining. Projected finish: 9-7 and a wild card.

St. Louis (2-6), New Orleans (2-6) and Atlanta (0-8) will all be looking for new coaches.

Division MVP: The 49ers’ offensive system. It doesn’t matter who plays quarterback, Bill Walsh’s offense works just fine.

Division Flop: The Ram organization. The team studied videotape, had meetings, had months of time in the off-season and picked Steve Walsh and his wet-noodle arm as its quarterback, Lawrence Phillips as its running back and then traded Jerome Bettis and Sean Gilbert.

NFC CENTRAL

The Packers (7-1) are 0-6 against Dallas and will be there on a Monday night in three weeks. Quarterback Brett Favre has lost his top two receivers, and the Pack still has to play at Kansas City and at home against Denver. Projected finish: Rest easy, Cheeseheads, 12-4 and the frozen tundra throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota (5-3) loses running back Robert Smith, a yearly habit, gets a 40-year-old performance from Warren Moon, and needs to win in Green Bay on the final day of the season to make the playoffs. Projected finish: 9-7 and out of the playoffs.

Detroit (4-4) ran off seven consecutive victories at the end of last season to make Wayne Fontes look smart. This is no easy task. This year the Lions have two games remaining with the Packers and games in San Diego and San Francisco. Projected finish: Pack those bags, Wayne--8-8 and out of the playoffs.

Division MVP: Now who’s taking the pain pills? That’s right, the defensive coordinators who have to stop Favre each week.

Division Flop: Fontes. His own players are now questioning his ability to coach, and this time around the Wayne Watch should result in a new coach for the Lions.

NFC EAST

Best race in the conference. Do the upstart Redskins (7-1) hold on, or do the Cowboys (5-3) catch them at the wire? Something extra to consider: The Redskins beat the Cowboys twice a year ago. Washington has two games remaining with the Cowboys, including the season finale in RFK Stadium.

If they split their regular-season meetings and tie for the division lead, the team with the best division record wins the title. The Redskins have lost one division game, and despite three overall losses, the Cowboys have yet to lose a division game.

The Redskins’ remaining schedule, which includes only three home games, features opponents with a combined record of 26-22. The Cowboys have it far tougher, playing teams with a 37-19 mark. Projected finish: Dallas 11-5 and the title, Washington 10-6 and a wild card.

Philadelphia (6-2) has the jockey, as one writer calls him, at quarterback in Ty Detmer, and one of the easiest schedules down the stretch to make a run of its own for the division title. Projected finish: 11-5 and the home-field advantage as a wild card.

Division MVP: Washington Coach Norv Turner, who has his team playing playoff-like football on offense: No chance for mistakes from quarterback Frerotte and a game-controlling running game from Terry Allen.

Division Flop: Cowboy wide receiver Michael Irvin’s invincible attitude led to a five-game suspension and a season-long sweat for what is still the best team in football when all hands are available.

AFC WEST

Denver (7-1) has the quarterback in John Elway, the runner in Terrell Davis and--isn’t this a kick?--the defense to have a fighting chance if they make it to the Super Bowl. They have a death march to negotiate first, however, with games at Oakland on Monday night, and then in New England, Minnesota, Green Bay and San Diego. Projected finish: 12-4.

Kansas City (5-3) has to get by the Vikings in Minnesota this week, and then it gets three consecutive home dates to right itself for a stretch run. Projected finish: 10-6 and wild-card home-field advantage.

Oakland (4-4), which has five home games remaining, also has the fifth-place schedule, which means two games with Seattle and one at Tampa Bay. Projected finish: 10-6 and a wild card.

San Diego (4-4) spends Christmas on the beach.

Division MVP: Denver’s defense, which ranks in the top five, even though it’s manned with bottom-five-like talent in some positions.

Division Flop: The Chargers’ running game, which was going to revolve around Aaron Hayden. Bobby Ross’ teams like to run, but this one can’t.

AFC CENTRAL

Pittsburgh (6-2) remains an amazing story. Coach Bill Cowher annually loses some of his best players to free agency and then more to injury, and acts as if none of it ever happened.

The Steelers have an easy schedule the rest of the way, the toughest road game at Carolina, and that should keep the Steelers in Three Rivers Stadium for the playoffs again. Projected finish: 11-5.

Houston (5-3) may have to win in Miami to gain a wild-card tie-breaking edge on the Dolphins, but the only team with a winning record on the Oilers’ schedule is Carolina, and the Oilers get them at home. Projected finish: 10-6 and a wild card.

Division MVP: Tomczak, who started the season behind Jim Miller, has been just what the Steelers needed to make Jerome Bettis so effective.

Division Flop: Running back Ki-Jana Carter, who was supposed to energize the Cincinnati Bengals’ attack.

AFC EAST

Throw a dart: OK, Buffalo (5-3). The popular choice might be New England (5-3) after the Patriots’ offensive explosion in recent weeks, but they already have three division losses--a tie-breaking nightmare.

Indianapolis (5-3), which continues to play beaten up, has road games in Miami, New England, Kansas City and Cincinnati.

The Bills will need Jim Kelly to return to form, and they still must play at Miami on a Monday night and then at home against Kansas City. The winner wins the division title. The loser may miss the playoffs. Projected finish: Buffalo 10-6, New England 10-6 and Indianapolis 9-7 with the Bills winning the tie-breaker and the Patriots and Colts missing the playoffs.

Division MVP: Knock him down, and Colt quarterback Harbaugh continues to get right back up.

Division Flop: If the Bills had any semblance of an offense--any kind of play from Kelly--this race would already be over.

MISCELLANY

Top first-half coach: Washington’s Turner, who has compiled a 10-2 mark in the last dozen games.

Honorable mention: Carolina’s Dom Capers, Houston’s Jeff Fisher, Denver’s Mike Shanahan and Pittsburgh’s Cowher.

Worst first-half coach: Atlanta’s June Jones. You just don’t dump your starting quarterback because he calls you a bad name.

Honorable mention: St. Louis’ Rich Brooks, Seattle’s Dennis Erickson, Detroit’s Fontes and the Jets’ Kotite.

*

Top six remaining games:

Nov. 10: Dallas at San Francisco.

Nov. 18 (Monday): Green Bay at Dallas.

Nov. 24: San Francisco at Washington.

Nov. 28 (Thanksgiving) Washington at Dallas.

Dec. 8: Denver at Green Bay.

Dec. 22: Dallas at Washington.

*

Peyton Manning Derby:

Atlanta (0-8): *20-29

Tampa Bay (1-7): *30-26

New York Jets (1-8): *32-17

*Combined record of remaining opponents.

Projected winner: The Jets. They don’t face a team with a losing record the rest of the way.