Major Parties Losing Grip on O.C. Voters

The fastest growing political party in Orange County is “None of the Above.”

A surge of new voter registrations in Orange County this year found a growing number of citizens spurning both the Republicans and the Democrats and opting for other parties--or no party at all.

While the Republican and Democratic parties together still attract most newly registered voters, new data from the Orange County registrar of voters office suggest that the major parties’ grip is beginning to slip.

Consider: Of the 237,460 people who registered or re-registered to vote this year in Orange County, one in five chose a minor party--such as the Green or Libertarian--or no party at all.

The Republican Party, though still dominant in Orange County, drew fewer than half of the new voters, a development that bodes ill for its ability to maintain a clear-cut majority. The Democrats attracted fewer than a third.

Independents and smaller parties now account for 16% of all Orange County voters.

This trend was even greater elsewhere in California, where 28% of the voters who registered over the past seven months chose a minor party or no affiliation at all. The result is that neither party can now claim the allegiance of more than half the voters.

Statewide, Democrats now comprise about 47% of the electorate, and Republicans represent 37%. The remaining 16% are either independent or belong to other parties.

In Orange County, the shift away from the two major parties is even more pronounced among members of the two largest ethnic groups.

Twenty-nine percent of the Vietnamese Americans registering this year declared themselves independent or affiliated with a smaller party, according to an analysis of Orange County voter data done for The Times by Dick Lewis, a local political analyst. Among Latinos, Lewis found, that figure was 20%.

“I don’t trust either one of the parties,” said Conrad Moreno, a 50-year-old disabled veteran from Orange who recently switched his registration from Democrat to Libertarian. “I listen to what the Republicans and the Democrats say, and it’s the same thing.”

Increasing numbers of voters are going the way of Moreno. Many of those leaving the major parties are saying the same thing: They no longer see much difference between the Republicans and Democrats, and they no longer have much faith that either party can solve the country’s problems.

And many voters complained that both the Republican and Democratic parties were in the sway of the individuals and corporations that give them the money to run their campaigns.

“I don’t even remember what party I was in--it doesn’t make any difference,” said Mark Burton, 30, of Seal Beach, who recently registered Libertarian. “They’re both controlled by big business.”

Experts agree that the march away from the major parties reflects a growing alienation with big political institutions.

‘We get a lot of people who have given up on the political system,” said Mike Feinstein, a co-founder of the California Green Party.

“Some people feel that there’s no place else to go,” said Bruce Cain, professor at the UC Berkeley.

Exactly what the trend means for Tuesday’s presidential election is unclear. None of the candidates nominated by one of the smaller parties, like Ross Perot and Ralph Nader, has managed to capture much more than a few percentage points in the polls.

And because Tuesday’s vote is a general election, any voter of any party affiliation may vote for anyone on the ballot.

Over the long term, though, experts and party activists say the trend away from the major parties portends a more unpredictable electorate--unburdened by party allegiance.

“There are so many people leaving the major parties that a new party could spring up--or a whole bunch of them,” said Mike Mang, the chairman of the Orange County Green Party.

Mang said the Greens are drawing many new voters from the major parties, especially the Democrats.

Come 1998, the gradual decline of the major parties could accelerate. Last March, California voters removed one of the last major incentives to join a major party--the exclusive right to vote in the party’s primary.

The new law allows voters to participate in any primary regardless of their party affiliation. That means, for instance, that registered Democrats will be able to vote in the Republican primary, or vice-versa. Or that Green Party voters can vote in the Democratic primary.

“It will definitely weaken the two-party system,” Mang said.

Despite the shifting loyalties, leaders of the Republican Party don’t seem terribly concerned--yet. The Orange County GOP claims 52% of the registered voters, against 33% for the Democrats. Their margin over the Democrats in Orange County, as of Oct. 7, stands at 240,976 voters. It’s the most Republican county in California.

Bill Christiansen, GOP party director, believes that many of the voters registering independent or with a minor party are young. He thinks they’ll soon chuck their independence in favor of a political party once they start paying taxes.

“You’re young and you want to be bipartisan,” Christiansen said. “But as you get older, you realize the world doesn’t work that way.”

And in the meantime, Christiansen takes heart in voters who are leaving the Democratic Party to join the GOP.

“The Republicans better reflect the way we feel the country ought to be run,” said Karen Blankenship, a Huntington Beach resident who left the Democratic Party last year. “My kids were already Republicans.”

Despite the overall growth of minor parties, one grass-roots group has actually begun to shrink: Ross Perot’s Reform Party. At the end of 1995, the Reform Party in Orange County had 12,828 members and comprised 1.1% of the electorate. Today, the party has 11,268--fewer than 1% of the county’s voters.

Bad news for Perot?

No, says Judy Duffy, local spokeswoman for the Reform Party. Duffy thinks many voters switched to the Republican Party so they could vote in the GOP primary. At the time, Duffy says, Perot’s intentions were still unclear.

“A lot of people didn’t know who was going to run,” Duffy said.

The news that people are fleeing the major parties is probably bad for the Democrats, who haven’t succeeded in electing one of their own to a local state or county office in recent years. Jim Toledano, the party chairman, said the Democrats have their work cut out for them.

“I try to tell our supporters: Just because people leave the Republican Party does not mean they will become Democrats.”

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Breaking Away

Converts to alternative parties and independents (those with no preference) make up the bulk of the 3% increase in voter registration in Orange County since 1992. Ross Perot’s Reform Party virtually did not exist before he stepped into the political picture four years ago.

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Party 1992 1996 Change Republican 648,996 657,995 1% Democratic 428,035 417,019 -3% No preference 127,563 144,693 13% American Independent 20,461 23,093 13% Reform 14 11,268 -- Libertarian 7,294 7,709 6% Green 3,274 3,878 18% Other parties 5,141 10,118 97% Total registration 1,240,778 1,275,773 3%

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Source: Orange County registrar of voters office