It Was One Election That Dornan Lost, Not One Race

To outsiders, what happened to Bob Dornan this year in the 46th Congressional District may have seemed inevitable. Representing a Democratic district dominated by Santa Ana, with its increasing Latino voter registration, Dornan, the fiery Republican from the party’s right wing, would seem to have been ripe for the fall that now appears all but complete. All that was needed, it seemed, was an appealing Democratic, Latino-surnamed candidate who could put up a fight.

In fact, the warning signs were there as far back as November of 1992, when no-name Democratic candidate Robert Banuelos pulled 40,000 votes, or 41% to Dornan’s 50%. In other words, just a few percentage points in either direction, and Dornan could have been history then.

Enter Loretta Sanchez, a young, attractive candidate with lots of party money behind her.

The truth of the matter, though, is that Bob Dornan never thought he would lose his district. He thought he would retire undefeated. And while Sanchez looks, on paper, like just the kind of candidate who could beat him, Dornan didn’t perceive her as a legitimate threat.

What people outside the district forget, according to those who know the 46th, is that despite its Democratic leanings and growing Latino registration, it is a conservative enclave that doesn’t play to outsiders’ stereotypes.

“That’s a common misunderstanding about Santa Ana,” says former mayor Dan Young. “Some of my most difficult neighborhood meetings were in Hispanic neighborhoods where they were demanding an end to gang violence because they were the victims, demanding an end to illegal aliens living in garages because they were the ones affected by it.”

Another misconception, Young says, is that a Latino majority means Latino candidates automatically win, noting that in his last race for mayor in 1992 he beat John Acosta.

Brian O’Leary Bennett, a former Dornan chief of staff and campaign manager, says, “I don’t think he [Dornan] envisioned a day when he would be taken out by the Hispanic vote.”

Dornan always believed the Republican messages of small-business entrepreneurship and family values would serve him well with Latino voters, Bennett says. Dornan’s main concern was whether the Democrats would import a strong candidate someday to take him on.

On election night, Dornan seemed to hint at his vulnerability to changing demographics. But there was less there than met the eye. While predicting Sanchez couldn’t beat him, Dornan said someone like Santa Ana Mayor Miguel Pulido could do it. What the sly congressman knew, but didn’t say, was that Pulido would never run against him because of a personal loyalty. Years ago, before Pulido was either a household name in Santa Ana or considered a comer in local Democratic Party circles, Dornan helped save his family’s muffler shop business.

In the Dornan-Sanchez race, Pulido stayed neutral. Pulido credits Sanchez with running a strong campaign but notes that of the city’s registered voters, most of the “high-propensity” voters are politically conservative. Like Bennett, Pulido thinks Dornan’s whimsical and time-consuming bid for the presidency may have cost him the congressional seat.

Besides watching demographic trends among Latinos in recent years, Dornan also has had to monitor the district’s Vietnamese American population. Once staunchly Republican because the party was perceived as the anti-Communist party, the Vietnamese vote in the district--centered in Garden Grove--is no longer automatic.

Mai Cong, president of the Vietnamese Community of Orange County Inc., says a large voter registration drive in recent years weakened the Republican grip on Vietnamese votes.

“Since 1992, there’s been a big shift,” she says. “Today, people are better informed than they were in 1992. They know that the Democratic Party is also anti-Communist, not just the Republican Party. Today, voters are concerned with issues that affect them directly, right here [in Orange County], such as economic issues, civil rights, domestic issues and immigrant bashing.”

Dornan can no longer count on 80% to 90% of Vietnamese American vote, Cong says. Given the closeness of his race with Sanchez, “if he has all the Vietnamese votes [he used to get], he wins,” she says. “And he is not getting that, because Vietnamese are now [registering] either independent or on both sides.”

There is a bottom line to this: While tempting to suggest that Sanchez has broken through and ended not only Dornan’s hold on the district but the Republican Party’s, don’t bet the farm.

“This was a Democratic presidential year and the messenger [Sanchez] put enough of a conservative spin on the Democratic message to make the Orange County Hispanic conservative voter stay with the Democratic Party,” Young says. “There is a clear trend line, but I wouldn’t exaggerate it, because I think this is an exaggerated year.”

Adds Bennett: “Sanchez is right in everyone’s scope. She’s going to be the darling of the liberals throughout the country, if she wins. . . . And those associations are going to hurt her if she comes back and runs in that district.”

Dana Parsons’ column appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by writing to him at the Times Orange County Edition, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, CA 92626, or calling (714) 966-7821.