Suddenly, Airport Vote No Sure Thing After All

By most accounts, it should be a done deal. Nearly everyone expects a pro-business Orange County Board of Supervisors to rubber-stamp a plan to redevelop El Toro Marine Corps Air Station as a commercial airport on Tuesday.

But some changing dynamics on the board, including an unprecedented turnover, may combine to alter the vision of an ambitious international airport at the retiring military base.

Even in the face of heavy lobbying from pro-airport forces from Disneyland to local business leaders, South County residents are clinging to a glimmer of hope.

Consider:

* Gov. Pete Wilson last week appointed Laguna Niguel Councilman Thomas W. Wilson--a proclaimed airport foe--to fill the 5th District vacancy on the Board of Supervisors.

* Supervisor William G. Steiner and outgoing board member Don Saltarelli appear to be softening their stances on an El Toro airport, with one suggesting scaling back the project and the other considering rejecting a controversial environmental impact report.

* Two incoming supervisors, Todd Spitzer and Charles V. Smith, have views that may be more favorable toward South County residents, with Spitzer vowing to fight it and Smith acknowledging that some compromise may be in order.

* Most surprisingly, outgoing Board Chairman Roger R. Stanton--long considered an avid airport ally--is sounding more and more like an airport opponent these days, questioning the key arguments in favor of the facility.

“I think the arguments for an airport are going to have to be a little stronger than just the economic advantages,” said Stanton, who leaves office at the end of the year and is expected to return to teaching.

“We have to look at the quality of life, we have to look at the nature of this community and what we want this community to be,” Stanton said. “These narrow arguments about economic advantages are wearing a little thin on me.”

Even high-ranking county officials, who pride themselves on predicting how board votes will go, say uncertainty is in the air.

“There’s a squirrelly feeling around here,” one top official said. “There’s a perception that Roger is loose on this deal.”

There may also be a slight possibility that, because of the change in the makeup of the board, the crucial vote could be postponed until next year. Wilson and Spitzer late last week called for such a delay, saying the new board shouldn’t be saddled with the previous board’s decision.

“It’s going to be the next board that is going to make all the important decisions,” Spitzer said. “If I am going to make decisions down the line, I should make the decision on the EIR. It shouldn’t even be a question for a project of this magnitude.”

Smith and Steiner, however, don’t share their new colleague’s view.

“They’re up to speed [on the environmental report] and should vote on it,” Smith said of the current board. “I wouldn’t want to delay things.”

Steiner agreed, saying the existing board has put in countless hours studying the issue.

“Everything that could have been said has been said and heard,” Steiner said, referring to the several thousand comments the public and other interested parties have already raised about the plan.

Furthermore, a delay would force the county to once again ask the federal government to extend its deadline for receiving the county’s base reuse plan, which must be considered before the Pentagon can certify that it is in the public interest to give all or part of the base to Orange County.

Base closure coordinator Pete Ciesla said the military may be willing to grant a short delay. But a lengthier extension would hamper the federal government’s efforts to launch its own lengthy environmental impact study that must be completed before the 4,700-acre base can be retired by 1999.

“We of course would like to have the reuse plan submitted on time,” said Ciesla, who added that the county must formally request permission to extend the Dec. 30 deadline. “If we delay any further, it could impact our ability to begin disposing of the property at the base. But there may be some wiggle room.”

An extension, however, may only delay the inevitable, some onlookers say.

Until recently, it was believed that Stanton, Steiner and Supervisor Jim Silva would provide the majority vote in favor of an airport. That majority could shift if Stanton changes sides and if Saltarelli makes good on his threat to reject the plan because of an inadequate environmental report.

“There are aspects of the EIR that I am not satisfied with,” said Saltarelli, who added that he is wavering between refusing to certify the report or giving it a conditional approval.

The new board is also expected to hold a pro-airport majority with Smith, Silva and Steiner. But the new board members are also seen in some corners as more willing to scale back plans to make an El Toro airport more palatable for South County residents.

Smith, for example, said planning for an airport at El Toro must address the concerns of South County residents who fear a civilian airport’s impact on noise, traffic, pollution and safety.

“Certainly, South County should have an input,” Smith said, adding that he is willing to work with the affected areas to achieve that goal.

Coming up for a vote Tuesday is an environmental impact report that analyzes three reuse options for the base:

* Option A: An international passenger-cargo airport, capable of serving up to 38.3 million passengers a year, surrounded by compatible uses. Such an airport could average 50 flights an hour, around the clock. This option would keep John Wayne Airport open just for general aviation needs.

* Option B: A cargo airport, capable of moving 960,000 tons of cargo a year and serving local general aviation needs, surrounded by compatible uses. Such an airport could also average 50 flights an hour, around the clock. This could allow for expanded commercial passenger operations at John Wayne.

* Option C: Non-aviation, mixed uses, including a visitor-oriented attraction and an institutional or educational facility, such as a college campus, surrounded by residential and recreational areas and land for light industrial businesses and research and development. This would make John Wayne the county’s only airport.

The supervisors must decide whether to endorse the environmental impact report and which reuse options to pursue in the future. The county’s Planning Commission, Airport Commission and El Toro Citizens Advisory Commission have already given their approval to the report and plans for an airport at El Toro.

The supervisors’ vote on the base’s future may be one of the most sobering tasks ever to come before the board. Recycling the base will leave an indelible mark on the landscape and will help define Orange County’s profile in the 21st century.

Coming out in favor of an airport means putting economic interest ahead of the concerns of thousands of South County residents, who fear an airport’s noise and its effect on their home values, opponents say. To reject it ignores the will of Orange County voters who have twice endorsed an airport at El Toro, supporters say.

Either decision risks further fracturing an already divided county, pitting North County proponents against South County opponents. And both sides are poised to turn to the courts if they lose.

“It would be really admirable if they could decide how to recycle this base and have everyone agree,” remarked Sabina Deitrick, an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh, who has written extensively on military spending and base closure issues. “But it doesn’t sound like that’s going to happen. They have a difficult balancing act ahead of them.”

County officials stress that this is not the final vote on El Toro’s future. Choosing a base reuse plan will trigger a new round of impact studies that could take as long as two years to complete and will entail public hearings and yet more votes by the Planning Commission and the Board of Supervisors.

But critics fear that if the county sets its focus on an El Toro airport, there will be little chance that a future board will reverse course and decide to use the land for something else.

With the outcome of this week’s board vote less certain than it was before, the lobbying has been going on in earnest. Absent a recently enacted ordinance banning any gifts, large or small, to county officials, supervisors would be getting wined and dined in an effort to get their vote.

Now, interested parties wait patiently in the lobby for an audience with a supervisor, while faxes and letters pour in each day and the phones ring constantly. Each contact is an urgent plea for why an airport will or won’t work, and in most cases only vaguely disguises vested interests.

Pro-airport cities such as Villa Park and Newport Beach--which hope an El Toro airport will curb traffic at John Wayne--have their emissaries lined up. Disneyland--which envisions planes landing at El Toro loaded with tourists--has made its feelings known.

Airport foes from South County-based Taxpayers for Responsible Planning and the cities of Irvine and Lake Forest, as well as business leaders who oppose an airport, have also made the rounds on behalf of those who fear their home values are in jeopardy.

Both sides are also taking the opportunity to remind outgoing board members Saltarelli and Stanton that the vote will also define their reputation as board members.

“The supervisors need, and I fully expect them to take, leadership in making a decision that may not be the consensus decision today, but will be viewed in the future as an enlightened example of their fiduciary responsibilities,” said Tim Cooley, an executive vice president with the pro-airport Orange County Business Council.

But former Irvine Mayor Larry Agran, now leading the anti-airport group Project ‘99, sees things differently. “I think the timing of this may work out for us. The question of legacy is weighing heavily on the mind of at least some of the supervisors, and that’s good, because they don’t, I think, want to leave a legacy of certifying an inadequate EIR for an unneeded, unwanted and unaffordable project.”

Also contributing to this report was Times staff writer Shelby Grad.