A Panther Upset and 49ers Must Paws for Thought

Week 15 and the questions:

1. Why is Carolina in position to shock the world?

2. How can Carolina even think it has a chance to beat the 49ers?

3. So the Panthers are this week’s pick for the upset special?

And the answers:

1. San Francisco quarterback Steve Young says Carolina is “supremely coached,” and if the Panthers win today, they will be tied with the 49ers, but will have the tiebreaking edge because of an earlier victory over San Francisco.

“They are not an expansion team,” Packer General Manager Ron Wolf said. “They are a free agency team. A person should crawl before they walk. They didn’t even have to walk. They are strutting. It’s like playing a game of cards. We got 40 in our deck and they got 52. It’s supposed to be the other way around.”

Sour grapes? Why, sure. Many NFL people object to the concessions made to the expansion teams, including additional draft picks and salary cap advantages.

2. Since the NFL went to the 16-game schedule in 1978, only four teams have limited their opponents to fewer than 200 points in a season. That’s playing defense, and Carolina is in position to do the same.

The 1985 Chicago Bears, the 1978 “Steel Curtain” Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver’s “Orange Crush” in 1978 and Chicago again in 1986 were successful in staying below 200 points. The Panthers have given up 164 points with three games to play.

3. Forget it. The 49ers win going away, waltzing off with the NFC West.

THE TV GAMES

* PACKER BOOST

Denver (12-1) at Green Bay (10-3), 10 a.m., Channel 4: The Broncos will not risk John Elway to further injury, allowing his hamstring to heal, and so the Packers can not only clinch the NFC Central Division title, but can take a bow for beating the best team in football--shallow victory that it might be. But can they beat the Broncos in New Orleans in the Super Bowl with Elway throwing the football?

--Say what: Denver has clinched everything it needs to advance to the Super Bowl. In addition to winning the AFC West, the Broncos will be playing in Mile High Stadium throughout the playoffs.

--Player to watch: Quarterback Bill Musgrave. The Broncos will ask him to stay out of the way of Reggie White, hand the ball to Terrell Davis and not get anyone killed.

--Finally: The Packers have won 25 of their last 26 games at Lambeau Field, and if they don’t make it 26 of 27 with Elway out, the local taverns will be doing a booming business.

* BIG-TIME FLOPS

New York Giants (5-8) at Miami (6-7), 10 a.m., Channel 11: Football fans might have expected the Giants to flounder this season, but Coach Jimmy Johnson’s Dolphins have failed to live up to expectations. Now Johnson is threatening to fire any veterans who appear disinterested. Does that include Dan Marino?

--Say what: Marino has beaten every NFL team in existence before 1995 except for the Giants.

--Player to watch: The Giants have the 30th-ranked passing attack, and when you consider that Trent Dilfer is in the NFL and playing for Tampa Bay, that tells you how bad Dave Brown is.

--Finally: The Giants have had 10 interceptions and recovered eight fumbles in the last six games, and oh could New York have some fun: Nothing gets Johnson angrier than turnovers.

* POTENTIAL SHOCKER

Carolina (9-4) at San Francisco (10-3), 1 p.m., Channel 11: If the Panthers defeat the 49ers, they become America’s Team. The Panthers have the defense to befuddle the 49ers, but how can the Panthers possibly score enough points against the San Francisco defense to win the biggest game in the franchise’s short history?

--Say what: The Panthers defeated the 49ers, 23-7, early on with Steve Beuerlein throwing two touchdown passes. Another victory gives the Panthers the tiebreaker edge over San Francisco.

--Player to watch: Quarterback Kerry Collins will be matched against the NFL’s No. 3 defense.

--Finally: The 49ers can clinch a fifth consecutive NFC West title, but can they dent a defense that has given up only 46 second-half points? With ease.

* FONTES FAREWELL TOUR

Minnesota (7-6) at Detroit (5-8), 5 p.m., ESPN: Lion Coach Wayne Fontes can’t be saved by a mad rush to make the playoffs.

--Say what: The Vikings, who are fighting to stay in the playoff picture, opened the season with a four-point victory over the Lions.

--Player to watch: Brad Johnson has established himself as the Vikings’ quarterback of the future.

--Finally: The Lions have scored more second-quarter points (114) this season than in the entire second half (104).

RENT A MOVIE

Baltimore (4-9) at Cincinnati (5-8): Raven Coach Ted Marchibroda said his team turned the corner last week after beating Pittsburgh. So what’s around that corner? Baltimore cannot make the playoffs, cannot finish .500 and still has Vinny Testaverde at quarterback.

--Say what: The Bengal defense ranks No. 28 against the pass, and the Ravens stand No. 2 throwing the ball--Testaverde throws for a million yards and Ravens still lose.

--Player to watch: Cincinnati kicker Doug Pelfrey is the most accurate kicker in NFL history. To date he has made 101 of 123 attempts.

--Finally: Bengals won in Baltimore earlier this season, 24-21.

Atlanta (2-11) at New Orleans (2-11): The Saints will be without quarterback Jim Everett, who has a concussion, and you can write your own punch line.

--Say what: Check out the turnstiles. The 26,310 who came to the Superdome to watch the Rams and Saints last week was the lowest crowd of the year. The Saints have already played before six sub-46,000 home crowds this year.

--Player to watch: Doug Nussmeier, the guy who hasn’t been good enough to knock Everett out of the starting lineup.

--Finally: The Falcons rank No. 28 running the ball, the Saints No. 30, and that makes for a long game with so many anticipated incomplete passes.

St. Louis (4-9) at Chicago (5-8): The Bears’ motivation is to reach .500, the Rams’ to end the season and start working for a new coach.

--Say what: St. Louis punter Sean Landeta has 299 consecutive kicks without having one blocked--a most valuable statistic for a team that punts a lot.

--Player to watch: Ram running back Lawrence Phillips did not dress for last week’s game because of a sore knee. How embarrassing.

--Finally: With Tony Banks at quarterback for the Rams, Chicago cornerback Donnell Woolford should pad his stats. Woolford has 31 career interceptions--most in club history--and five this season.

TRAPS EVERYWHERE

Dallas (8-5) at Arizona (6-7): The Cowboys took a tumble against the Giants in a similar situation a few weeks ago, and after all the hullabaloo surrounding Leon Lett’s suspension for drug use, Dallas might be vulnerable again.

--Say what: Arizona quarterback Boomer Esiason is 26-7 in games in which he throws three or more touchdown passes.

--Player to watch: Tony Casillas will replace Lett, the leading candidate to be defensive player of the year, but it’s not as if he has to worry about stopping the Cardinal running game. By the way, whatever happened to LeShon Johnson?

--Finally: The Cowboys have defeated the Cardinals 12 consecutive times.

Buffalo (9-4) at Seattle (5-8): Looks like a romp for the Bills, but Buffalo has traveled across the country, has a limping Thurman Thomas at running back and quarterback Jim Kelly is trying to fight through a hamstring injury. Watch out.

--Say what: Seattle receiver Joey Galloway needs 30 yards to become the fourth player in NFL history to top 1,000-yard mark in his first two seasons.

--Player to watch: Thomas needs 109 yards to join Detroit’s Barry Sanders for an NFL-record eighth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season.

--Finally: Chris Warren has averaged 4.6 yards a carry the last eight games, and if the Seahawks are to spring an upset, they will need an effective Warren.

New York Jets (1-12) at New England (9-4): The Patriots are coming off a huge victory on national TV in San Diego. Do they take the Jets for granted? And even if they do, does it matter?

--Say what: The Patriots sweated out a four-point victory over the Jets a few weeks ago.

--Player to watch: Quarterback Glenn Foley will make his first NFL start for the Jets.

--Finally: The Patriots have defeated the Jets four consecutive times, and can clinch a playoff berth with a victory.

Washington (8-5) at Tampa Bay (4-9): The Redskins were 7-1 at one time and cannot afford another slip as they look forward to a season-ending NFC East showdown against the Cowboys.

--Say what: The Redskins have outscored their opponents, 50-22, in the first quarter this year.

--Player to watch: Cornerback Tom Carter has four interceptions to lead the Redskins but is also the defensive back that every team sets out to beat.

--Finally: The Redskins’ defense continues to rank No. 30, but the Buccaneers’ offense is no threat, ranking No. 27.

PUT UP OR SHUT UP

San Diego (7-6) at Pittsburgh (9-4): The Chargers make the playoffs if they win their last three, and the Steelers remain in position to grab home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

--Say what: The Steelers can clinch the AFC Central title with a victory, although they have lost to each of the teams in their division.

--Player to watch: Sean Salisbury starts for Stan Humphries (concussion), and the Chargers are going to need a big effort from their inconsistent offensive line to give Salisbury a chance against the NFL’s No. 5 defense.

--Finally: The Chargers went to the Super Bowl with a big victory in Pittsburgh two years ago, but last season the Steelers won by 15 at home.

Jacksonville (6-7) at Houston (7-6): The Jaguars are talking playoffs, which is ludicrous, but the Oilers remain in position to grab a spot. Houston will start Steve McNair again at quarterback, which has caused a stir in the locker room because Chris Chandler is also ready to go.

--Say what: The Jaguars have gained 4,766 yards in 13 games, a year after gaining 4,495 yards in 16 games.

--Player to watch: Jacksonville quarterback Mark Brunell has thrown for at least 200 yards in 15 consecutive games.

--Finally: The Oilers rank No. 2 in stopping the run. That’s great, but the Jaguars pass, and have the No. 1 air attack in the NFL.