11% Decline in Violent Crime Continues Trend

Reported crime has continued to decline in Los Angeles this year, following a trend at work locally and across the nation, according to statistics released Thursday by the Los Angeles Police Department.

Reports of murder, assault, rape and robbery fell during the first 11 months of 1996, contributing to an overall 11% drop in reports of violent crime. Reported property crimes were down 12% during the same period, according to the Police Department.

Crime also decreased in the San Fernando Valley, although not as steeply as it did citywide. Violent crimes in the Valley fell 7.5% while property crimes dropped 8.9%.

There have been 33 fewer homicides this year, a drop of 33%. Robberies fell 11%, aggravated assaults 7.5% and rapes 2%.

“We are very happy with these numbers,” said Lt. Dan Hoffman, spokesman for the LAPD’s Valley Bureau. “This is the fifth year in a row that we’ve seen a decline.” Hoffman said he could not explain why crime did not decrease as much in the Valley as it did citywide.

The drop has emerged as a significant issue in Police Chief Willie L. Williams’ campaign to win a second five-year term as the chief of the 9,250-officer department. Williams’ backers cite the falling crime rate, as well as a decline in citizens’ complaints against police officers, as evidence of the chief’s effectiveness.

“Certainly, the Police Department is getting out there in larger numbers, and we’re also more deeply involved in community policing,” said Lt. Tony Alba, a spokesman for the Police Department. “[Residents] know they need to help direct us in our efforts and point out the criminal element in their communities, and that’s happening more.”

Others question the appropriateness of crediting police with pushing down crime. Some criminologists argue that police can only marginally affect crime rates--a view that Williams has advanced in the past.

Those experts emphasize demographics and other factors such as drug availability, access to weapons and the state of the economy. According to those observers, much of the national decline in crime is the result of a relatively small number of teenagers and young adults in the nation today. Those same experts warn that crime may begin to rise as today’s children begin reaching their so-called crime-prone years, roughly ages 18 to 26.

Other LAPD statistics raise questions about how much credit the department can claim for the falling number of crimes in the city.

For instance, the annual numbers of LAPD arrests, traffic citations and field interviews have fallen dramatically since the early 1990s, suggesting that Los Angeles officers are not as productive as they once were. And if LAPD officers are making fewer arrests, some observers argue, then they may not be having much direct impact on crime.

In March, Mayor Richard Riordan asked the LAPD to report to him within 60 days with an explanation for why arrests are down, particularly in light of the rapidly growing size of the Police Department. In a preliminary draft, the department cited such things as its shift to community policing, but the LAPD still has not produced a final report.

At the same time that Los Angeles has seen crime dip, the nation has been experiencing a decline in violent crime.

In 1995, FBI statistics showed that 7.4% fewer murders were reported than in the previous year. Those statistics also show that Los Angeles experienced a small uptick in 1995, increasing from 845 reported killings in 1994 to 849 the next year.

At the same time, some cities, particularly New York, were recording huge drops.

Among other things, New York recorded a 40% drop in murders over two years--1994 and 1995. Today, reported violent crime in New York stands at its lowest level in a generation. According to the statistics released Thursday, reported murders have fallen 12.8% in Los Angeles over the last two years.

Williams has resisted comparing Los Angeles to other cities, particularly New York, in part by stressing that the problems facing various cities are profoundly different. But others say comparisons help put Los Angeles’ statistics in perspective.

“I think it’s a responsibility to compare our statistics to other urban areas,” said Art Mattox, vice president of the city’s Police Commission. “The concern is, as it should be for all of us . . . are we getting the most bang for our buck.”

Although experts differ on the significance of Los Angeles’ falling rates of reported crimes, the statistics do suggest that far fewer people have been victimized in 1996 than in previous years. So far this year, 670 people have been slain, down from 796 last year and from more than 1,000 just a few years ago.

Aggravated assaults, a category that includes domestic assaults, also have continued their two-year drop, and property crimes are likewise down across the board, with fewer burglaries, car thefts and other thefts.

Mattox, who will join other police commissioners in considering whether to appoint Williams to a second term if the chief formally applies by early next year, declined to comment on how heavily the commission would weigh the crime rate. But copies of the chief’s 1996 goals obtained by The Times list the city’s crime rate as one criteria for evaluating Williams, and Mattox agreed that it would be considered.

Mattox said: “It is a factor in the evaluation of the performance of a chief of police in all areas, in leadership, in changing the image of our department, in crime statistics and in integrity.”

LAPD Statistics

Reports of murders, assault, rape and robbery in Los Angeles fell during the first 11 months of 1996, contributing to an overall 11% drop in reports of violent crime.

Source: Los Angeles Police Department