Triple Crown Gauntlet

Future-book betting on the Kentucky Derby is among the worst propositions in Nevada. A case in point is Swiss Yodeler, whose future-book price will plummet after his Hollywood Futurity victory, even though his own camp isn’t sure if the chestnut colt can graduate from 1 1/16 miles to the 1 1/4 miles required of a Derby winner at Churchill Downs next May.

“All I know right now is that I got a legitimate mile-and-a-sixteenth horse,” trainer Mike Harrington said of Swiss Yodeler. “But I always say that speed is dangerous. Can he run a mile and a quarter? Who knows? But if he gets the lead, he might go a mile and a half.”

Swiss Yodeler’s front-running upset, under jockey Alex Solis at 19-1, enabled owner Heinz Steinman’s $60,000 yearling purchase to re-enter the big picture. He joins hundreds of other 3-year-olds under consideration for the gauntlet that is the Triple Crown: The Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, all run at different distances over different track surfaces, during a five-week grind in May and June.

As usual, Wayne Lukas trains an inordinate number of these candidates. Lukas has won seven of the last eight Triple Crown races--the Preakness and Belmont with Tabasco Cat in 1994; the Derby and Belmont with Thunder Gulch and the Preakness with Timber Country in 1995; and the Derby with Grindstone and the Belmont with Editor’s Note this year--and he says he’s in a better position to deliver another big bang to racing’s most visible showcase in 1997.

In the Hollywood Futurity, Lukas saddled longshots Mellifont and Leestown and they ran the way they were bet, but they are colts who are in the back room of his arsenal. Thanks to big spending by his clients at auctions all over the country, Lukas has dozens of young horses at his disposal, including the expected champion 2-year-old male, Boston Harbor.

“It’s easy to get up in the morning,” he says.

Trainer Bob Baffert got his first sniff of glory in the Kentucky Derby this year. For several minutes, Baffert knew how it felt to train a Derby winner. Then the placing judges at Churchill Downs looked at the photo of the finish, saw that Grindstone’s nose was bigger than Cavonnier’s, and dropped Baffert’s horse into the second-place spot.

Baffert is back for more, and he considers his best 2-year-olds to be In Excessive Bull and Silver Charm. In Excessive Bull, bet down to 9-10 after yawning his way to victories in two of his first three starts, ran third behind Swiss Yodeler and the one-time claimer Stolen Gold in the Hollywood Futurity, but Baffert was disappointed in the track condition, not the colt.

“He got beat by the track,” Baffert said. “My congratulations to the winners, but we shouldn’t have had a track that was only scraped from the inside. My horse was lucky to even finish third, but at least he showed that he could finish. He was swimming in this stuff going down the backside, and I gave him no chance. If they had scraped the whole track we would have had a better chance.”

Running inside and on or near the lead were the best tactical positions all day, and Swiss Yodeler’s profile was a perfect match. He broke from the No. 2 post and shot to the front. In Excessive Bull, ridden by Corey Nakatani, drew the No. 9 post.

“I’m happy with the way he ran, because he was stuck on the outside in 10 inches of mud,” Nakatani said. “The winner was running over an inch [of mud] on the inside.”

The track was gummy-fast, and Swiss Yodeler reached the wire in 1:42 3/5 for his sixth victory in nine starts. Membership in his fan club had dwindled, however, because after five straight wins at sprint distances, he ran third in the Del Mar Futurity, third in the Norfolk and seventh in a mile grass race at Hollywood Park last month.

“I never lost faith in him,” Mike Harrington said after the race, “and I still think he’s the best 2-year-old in California. You guys used to hound me. This week, nobody called me. Horses have their ups and downs, and this one has ability.”

Nick Zito, the trainer who interrupted Lukas’ Triple Crown streak when he saddled Louis Quatorze to win this year’s Preakness, feels that he has four Triple Crown candidates for next year. One of them, Acceptable, was beaten by a neck against Boston Harbor in the Breeders’ Cup. The others, less accomplished, are Shammy Davis, Tejano Couture and Jack Flash.

Zito won the Derby with Strike The Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994. Lukas’ incredible run started after the Go For Gin Derby.

“These four horses are all nice 2-year-olds, and you hope that they come around,” Zito said. “But you can never tell. Some horses, when they become 3-year-olds, they just stay the same, and others pass them.”

It has gotten to be a Triple Crown curse to go into a year with a horse who has too many credentials. Of the 13 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners, none has won the Derby and Timber Country was the first to win a Triple Crown race. A 2-year-old champion hasn’t won a Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

In a survey of the last 15 winners of Triple Crown races, only Pine Bluff, winner of the 1992 Preakness; Go For Gin and Timber Country won more than they lost as 2-year-olds and also won more than one stake. Lukas has been talking lately about finding another Grindstone. As a juvenile, his 1996 Derby winner started only twice, winning a maiden race and earning $23,510.

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Early Favorites

An alphabetical list of leading contenders for the 1997 Triple Crown races:

* Acceptable--Second in the Breeders’ Cup, this George Steinbrenner-owned colt will winter at Gulfstream Park. Trainer: Nick Zito.

* Boston Harbour--Winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this earner of $1.9 million (a record for a 2-year-old) will begin his 3-year-old campaign at Gulfstream. Trainer: Wayne Lukas.

* In Excessive Bull--Trainer Bob Baffert was encouraged by the colt’s first trip around two turns Sunday and feels he’ll do better on dry tracks.

* Jules--First or second in four starts, he was second in the Remsen after a bad start and will run in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on Feb. 22. Trainer: Alan Goldberg.

* Just A Cat--After winning the Cowdin, beating Jules, he was bought for more than $2 million by Michael Tabor, who also bought Thunder Gulch as an experienced 2-year-old. This colt is at Santa Anita and is expected to compete in mid-January. Trainer: Wayne Lukas.

* Ordway--Third with excuses in the Breeders’ Cup, he’ll pick up the chase at Gulfstream Park. Trainer: David Donk.

* Silver Charm--The winner of the Del Mar Futurity will be cranked up at Santa Anita after a fever curtailed his 2-year-old season. Trainer: Bob Baffert.

* Swiss Yodeler--Distance is still a question for this heavily raced colt, the first horse since Glorious Song in 1988 to win the Hollywood Juvenile and the Hollywood Futurity. Trainer: Mike Harrington.

* The Silver Move--A two-turn winner in the Remsen on an off-track, he’s at a farm in Ocala, Fla., and will take the New York route to the classics. Trainer: Linda Rice.

* Traitor--Second to Ordway in the Champagne, he’s a Maryland-based colt who won the Belmont Futurity at 15-1. Trainer: Mary Eppler.

How They Fared

What winners of the Hollywood Futurity have done in Triple Crown races:

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Year Horse How Fared 1996 Matty G 17th Derby 1995 Afternoon Deelites 8th Derby 1994 Valiant Nature 13th Derby 1993 River Special Did not run 1992 A.P. Indy Won Belmont 1991 Best Pal 2nd Derby 5th Preakness 1990 Grand Canyon Did not run 1989 King Glorious Did not run 1988 Tejano Did not run 1987 Temperate Sil Did not run 1986 Snow Chief 11th Derby Won Preakness 1985 Stephan’s Odyssey 2nd Derby 2nd Belmont 1984 Fali Time 4th Derby 1983 Roving Boy Did not run 1982 Stalwart Did not run

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