Voters Backing Riordan for Mayor by 2-1 Margin

Amid a growing perception that things are looking up for Los Angeles at last, the city’s likely voters favor Mayor Richard Riordan over challenger Tom Hayden by a 2-1 margin, the Times Poll has found.

They prefer City Atty. James K. Hahn to challenger Ted Stein by an even greater margin--52% of likely voters said they would vote for Hahn if the election were held today, while only 13% would choose Stein, an Encino attorney and developer with close ties to Riordan. However, 35% said they have yet to decide how to mark their ballots during the April 8 municipal primary.

Registered voters strongly support a Riordan-backed campaign to overhaul the City Charter but do not agree with him that Los Angeles’ top elected official should have more power. They want the job of rewriting the 680-page document to go to an elected panel of residents, the method sought by Riordan and his allies, rather than by an advisory group appointed by the City Council.

The poll, conducted Wednesday through Sunday by telephone, was overseen by acting Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. It surveyed 1,143 city residents, including 854 registered voters, and has a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points in either direction.

The poll found Riordan leading Hayden 54%-26% among likely voters, with 20% undecided. At the same time, 57% of residents citywide said they approved of the way Riordan is handling his job while only 22% disapproved. Last summer, just 46% of residents gave the mayor a favorable rating while 30% gave him low marks.

Still, Riordan’s support is uneven. His popularity drops among low-income blacks and Latinos. And men approve of his job performance at a much higher rate than do women.

At least some of Riordan’s strength can be attributed to a dramatic turnaround in residents’ perceptions about the city’s economy, their own circumstances and other facets of life here. A majority of Angelenos surveyed--52%--felt things are going well in their city, while 44% felt they are not. In the most recent previous survey, those numbers were reversed.

“When people are feeling good about the city and their circumstances, those positive feelings tend to show up in their attitudes about their elected officials and institutions,” Pinkus said.

Even the City Council, which typically scores below Riordan, rose in residents’ esteem. Angelenos who said they approved of the way the City Council is handling its job outnumbered those who disapproved 42% to 35%, giving the 15-member panel of lawmakers its strongest positive rating since June 1994.

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The sunny outlook about Los Angeles, however, was not shared by all groups within the city. Among racial groups, majorities of whites (55%) and Latinos (54%) both said things were going well. But only 32% of blacks and 44% of women held that positive view. Sixty percent of men viewed the state of the city favorably.

Sixty-one percent of residents surveyed deemed their personal financial situation secure, up from 53% last summer; 31% said they expect the city’s economy to be better three months from now, 56% expect it to be about the same, and just 11% expect it to be worse. Residents were definitely more optimistic than they were in late June, when only 18% predicted improvement, 63% said things would remain the same, and 16% expected the economy to worsen.

While crime is still the overriding concern among Los Angeles residents--72% said it was the biggest issue facing the city today--67% said they feel safe in their own communities; 32% said they do not. That is an improvement from a year and a half ago when 56% reported feeling safe in their neighborhoods while 43% said they did not.

But not all is rosy for Riordan--he still has been unable to position himself as a unifying leader of the diverse, sometimes racially polarized city.

While 66% of white residents and 52% of Latinos gave Riordan a thumbs up on the job he is doing, only 38% of blacks approved. Indicating the gender gap that first revealed itself during Riordan’s 1993 election, 64% of men approve of him compared with 48% of women. He got good marks from majorities of residents in all parts of the city except its southern sector, home to large numbers of economically struggling blacks and Latinos. Only 40% of residents there said they approved of the job he’s doing while 32% disapproved and 28% offered no opinion.

Among registered voters, Riordan is favored over Hayden by whites, 52% to 25%, and, to a lesser extent, by Latinos, 41% to 32%. But blacks favor Hayden slightly, 37% to 33%. The 66-year-old multimillionaire entrepreneur-turned-mayor does best among older voters, but he still outpolls Hayden in every age group.

Not surprisingly, 72% of Republicans go for fellow GOP member Riordan.

“I’m voting for Riordan because I’m a staunch conservative,” said R.D. Humphrey, 59, a quality control engineer from Canoga Park. “I’d never vote for the other guy . . . what’s his name?

“And I’m more optimistic about the economy in L.A. than I was three, four years ago,” Humphrey added. “I think Riordan has contributed to that. Some of the jobs seem to be coming back. Things seem to be going fairly well.”

Democrats split evenly--36% to each candidate--highlighting the difficulty the liberal Hayden is going to have in appealing even to members of his own party in this officially nonpartisan race.

“I think Riordan is trying to improve the city,” said Margaret Knuth, 70, who mentioned Riordan’s taking only $1 a year in salary as an indication that he is sincere about “trying to make the city better.”

Adriana Franco, 29, of Sun Valley, who is an administrative assistant for an urban planning firm, is also a Riordan supporter.

“Now that he’s been mayor for a while, he’s got some experience,” Franco said. “I think that’s a positive. And L.A. seems to be doing better now. So that’s a plus for him.”

Yet despite his strong poll numbers and climbing job approval rating, Riordan still presents a somewhat fuzzy image to voters.

“After nearly four years in office, people still do not have a strong impression of Riordan, and that is one of the city’s enduring political enigmas,” Pinkus said. “They like him, but they have to rack their brains to say why.”

That is in sharp contrast to Hayden, a liberal Westside state senator with a national reputation stretching back to his days as a student activist against the Vietnam War and his former marriage to actress Jane Fonda.

“Hayden evokes strong feelings in both directions,” Pinkus said. “He’s going to have a rough road. He has two months to overcome his considerable negatives, and he will have to find something that people are unhappy about. Voters do not fire incumbents if they are basically satisfied.”

When asked who would do a better job of promoting prosperity, holding down crime and understanding the city’s needs, voters surveyed picked Riordan. Respondents split evenly over who would be better at improving the public schools. But all groups thought Hayden would do better at improving race relations.

“I think Hayden’s life experience has proven that he is in touch with different [groups],” said Linda McGibney, 35, a television writer who lives in Sylmar. “Obviously he’s controversial, but I find him to be very intelligent, and I believe he has been a good representative for his area.”

The poll shows that Hayden, an avid campaigner who has aggressively attacked the mayor on several issues, has his work cut out for him. For instance, people do not blame the mayor for Peter O’Malley’s decision to sell the Dodgers, as Hayden has charged.

But they don’t agree with Riordan on everything--an administration-backed plan to build a taxpayer-assisted professional sports arena downtown was opposed by residents 55% to 34%. Younger respondents were evenly divided, while those 65 and older opposed the arena project 75% to 17%.

Sixty-four percent of voters surveyed do, however, agree with Riordan that the heavily amended, 72-year-old City Charter needs to be tossed out and a new one written in its place. Majorities of most racial groups and from all parts of town favor rewriting the charter. But the idea found its strongest support among whites and Latinos and in the San Fernando Valley (69%), where dissatisfaction with City Hall has fueled a secession debate and generated interest in rewriting the document that acts as the city’s constitution.

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Riordan spent more than half a million dollars of his own money to get a charter revision proposal on the April 8 ballot, and he has helped raised $556,000 to date to support candidates for a 15-member elected commission that would write a new charter if voters approve the plan this spring.

Although Riordan and his allies have often complained that the mayor’s office needs more authority, poll respondents don’t agree. Only 31% of voters said the mayor’s office should have more power, while 54% said it had about the right amount under the current charter; 7% said it should have less, while 8% said they didn’t know.

A clear majority, however--58%--said the job of writing a new charter ought to rest with an elected commission. Just 22% would leave the job to elected officials, which is the method that the City Council prefers. It has appointed a citizens committee that will offer its proposals for a new charter to the council, which will review--and could alter--them before putting them on the ballot. Any new charter proposal, no matter who writes it, must be submitted to voters.

Besides mayor, the only strongly contested citywide race on the ballot this spring is the battle for city attorney.

Stein, a former senior policy advisor and Airport Commission president for Riordan, has the better bankroll. According to the latest campaign finance documents filed at City Hall, Stein had raised $896,178 to Hahn’s $468,833, by Dec. 31. And, based on the poll results, he probably will need every penny and more.

“People aren’t paying attention yet,” Pinkus said, noting the large undecided bloc in the poll. “City attorney is a low-profile office, especially compared with district attorney. There are no O.J. Simpson, no Menendez brothers cases, nothing that voters are likely to know about.”

Robert Calatrello, 44, a real estate appraiser who lives in San Pedro, said he plans to vote for Stein because he believes that “Mr. Hahn is just too much a part of the good old boy network.

“While I am not taken with Mr. Stein, I would do anything to shake those people up there at City Hall,” Calatrello said.

Mostly, though, Hahn benefits y from his incumbency and from his last name. His father, former Los Angeles County Supervisor Kenneth Hahn, was a popular political fixture in Los Angeles for generations. A white man who still lives in South-Central Los Angeles, he was especially liked by his mainly black constituency.

Both Hahn and Stein are Democrats. But, in this survey, Hahn was favored over Stein by members of that party 43% to 13% and also led Stein among liberals, moderates and conservatives. Blacks favored Hahn by a margin of 65% to 10%.

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Key Issues in Race

With about two months until the election, Mayor Richard Riordan holds a comfortable lead over his chief opponent. Voters view Tom Hayden as the candidate who would improve race relations in the city, but Riordan gets the nod for promoting economic prosperity and holding down crime.

If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? (among likely voters)

Riordan: 54%

Hayden: 26%

Don’t know: 20%

WHO WOULD DO THE BETTER JOB OF...

- Promoting Prosperity

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All voters Whites Blacks Latinos Riordan 58% 66% 33% 54% Hayden 19 14 34 28

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- Holding Down Crime

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All voters Whites Blacks Latinos Riordan 48% 53% 27% 52% Hayden 23 20 33 26

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- Improving Race Relations

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All voters Whites Blacks Latinos Riordan 29 31 17 33 Hayden 41 41 45 47

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Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Note: Columns do not add up to 100% because some categories are not included.

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THE TIMES POLL

The Mayor’s Job Rating

* Mayor Riordan’s approval rating among all city residents:

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10/93 6/94 6/95 6/96 Now Approve 45% 59% 46% 46% 57% Disapprove 17% 24% 28% 30% 22%

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Among registered voters

* Do you think (Richard Riordan/Tom Hayden)...

...has honesty and integrity?

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Yes No Don’t know Riordan 71% 13 16 Hayden 49% 18 33

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...is a strong leader?

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Yes No Don’t know Riordan 62% 24 14 Hayden 32% 27 41

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,143 adults in the city of Los Angeles, including 854 registered voters, by telephone Jan. 29 through Feb. 2. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges citywide. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, area of city and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults, registered voters and likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.