Waiting to Hail

Babyface can count on getting quite a workout at the 39th annual Grammy Awards Wednesday night.

The red-hot musician could easily be called up to receive five awards, including for album, record and producer. Grammys for best pop album and R&B; song are also likely to end up on his shelf.

One of Babyface’s productions, the “Waiting to Exhale” soundtrack, is in a tight race with the Smashing Pumpkins’ “Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness” and Beck’s “Odelay” in the best album category. Another, Eric Clapton’s “Change the World,” is the heavy favorite for best single record. And Babyface is a cinch to become the first back-to-back winner of producer of the year honors.

Even if the Pumpkins lose in the best album race, they aren’t likely to go home empty-handed. The alternative-rock band has a good chance to win in four other categories.

Those are some of the predictions made by about a dozen industry insiders about this year’s Grammy Awards, which will be announced Wednesday. (The show, emanating for the first time from Madison Square Garden in New York,will be broadcast on CBS at 8 p.m.)

The following is a consensus view of 10 key categories by a group of industry insiders polled by Paul Grein, one of the 9,200 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences who select the winners each year. Times pop music critic Robert Hilburn counters with who he thinks deserves to win. The eligibility period was Oct. 1, 1995, through last Sept. 30.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Nominees: Beck’s “Odelay,” Celine Dion’s “Falling Into You,” the Fugees’ “The Score,” the Smashing Pumpkins’ “Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness” and the “Waiting to Exhale” soundtrack.

“I just think it’s the year of Babyface,” said one of the four experts who predicted a victory for “Exhale,” which is also my pick to win. Though Babyface’s songs for the movie were ignored at the Oscars last year, they were embraced by both music fans and critics.

The Pumpkins received equal support, with a little less going to Beck. Of “Odelay,” one Grammy-winning producer said, “Everybody I talk to in the business--even those who have little to do with alternative music--says that’s a great record.” Of the Pumpkins, another source said, “They’re the band of the moment.”

The problem is that both of these acts appeal to the same alternative-minded voters. If just one had made the finals, it would have had a good chance of winning. As it is, they may well split the academy’s growing “hip” vote, which last year pulled together behind Alanis Morissette. That works to the advantage of the more traditional finalists: “Exhale,” featuring Whitney Houston, and Dion.

There is also a sense that some Grammy voters are still discovering Beck, whose album has sold about 1 million copies--compared to 5 million or more for each of its rivals. “I don’t know that Beck has ‘penetrated’ yet, despite all the magazine covers,” one Grammy voter said.

Will win (industry poll): “Waiting to Exhale” and the Smashing Pumpkins (tie).

Should win (Robert Hilburn): Beck. “Waiting to Exhale” is a wonderfully classy work, but “Odelay” is one of those rare leaps of imagination that stretches the boundaries of modern pop.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Tracy Chapman’s “Give Me One Reason,” Clapton’s “Change the World,” Dion’s “Because You Loved Me,” Morissette’s “Ironic,” the Smashing Pumpkins’ “1979.”

“This is a no-brainer,” said one of the majority predicting a Clapton win. “Eric appeals to the complete voting body. He’s old-guard, but he’s very hip old guard.”

“Change the World,” which was featured in the movie “Phenomenon,” represents a rare and welcome rock/R&B; collaboration. As one executive said, “As much as Clapton is respected, it’s Babyface who’s going to carry the day there. You combine the two, and you have a very strong following.”

Chapman, who won three Grammys in 1989 and then faded from view, finished second in the survey. “Giving the award to her would be a way for the academy to say that we were right when we named her best new artist,” said one source. Another saw her winning almost by default. “Dion would be too much of a step back. It would make last year seem like a fluke. And the Clapton record is too much of a one-shot deal. It’s from a soundtrack to a so-so movie--and he didn’t even write it.”

Dion’s high-gloss single, which was written for the movie “Up Close & Personal,” received one vote. “Grammy voters love big, oomphy ballads,” that voter said, before adding with a chuckle, “I hate to underestimate them. They have been getting hipper.”

Will win: Clapton.

Should win: “1979,” the Smashing Pumpkins’ ambitious salute to teen restlessness and anxiety.

SONG OF THE YEAR

“Because You Loved Me” (Diane Warren), “Blue” (Bill Mack), “Change the World” (Gordon Kennedy-Wayne Kirkpatrick-Tommy Sims), “Exhale (Shoop Shoop)” (Babyface), “Give Me One Reason” (Chapman).

“Change the World” is a lock, according to the sampling.

“It’s a positive message song,” said one voter. “And Wynonna recorded it, in addition to Clapton, which will boost its chances. There’s a huge Nashville voting bloc.”

But four participants are betting on “Because You Loved Me,” which is also my pick. The song is more dynamic than “Change,” which one source described as “an expanded riff.” Besides, if only half of the performers who have recorded Diane Warren songs in the past 10 years vote for her, she’ll win in a landslide.

Will win: “Change the World.”

Should win: “Exhale (Shoop Shoop)” has the most sparkle in a less-than-satisfying field.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Garbage, Jewel, No Doubt, the Tony Rich Project, LeAnn Rimes.

“Of these five acts, Jewel is the one with the best chance of having a long and meaningful career,” said a film music executive who was part of the majority who predicted a victory for the young singer-songwriter. Another source added, “Great songs, great face, great story, great voice.”

No Doubt, whose “Tragic Kingdom” album topped the charts during the entire voting period, received three votes. “Six million sales have to count for something,” one voter reasoned.

Will win: Jewel.

Should win: In a slight nod over Garbage, Tony Rich appears to be the newcomer with the deepest talent.

BEST POP ALBUM

Toni Braxton’s “Secrets,” Chapman’s “New Beginning,” Shawn Colvin’s “A Few Small Repairs,” Dion’s “Falling Into You,” Sting’s “Mercury Falling.”

Dion led the pack. “They have to find a way to reward her for as many records as she’s sold,” one voter said. But my pick is Braxton, who was close behind in the poll. A Braxton victory would put Babyface, who produced most of the album, in line to win another award. “And she was more immediately on academy members’ lips during the voting period,” one source said.

Will win: Dion.

Should win: Braxton’s “Secrets” is a vocal tour de force.

BEST POP PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP WITH VOCAL

The Beatles’ “Free As a Bird,” Gin Blossoms’ “As Long as It Matters,” Journey’s “When You Love a Woman,” the Neville Brothers’ “Fire on the Mountain,” the Presidents of the United States of America’s “Peaches,” Take 6’s “When You Wish Upon a Star.”

“Who wouldn’t give the Beatles their last chance at a Grammy?” said a member of the near-unanimous Beatles bloc. But many lamented that “Free As a Bird” wasn’t up to the group’s standards, and said that it will win only because of their name power and the lack of even a moderately strong challenger.

Will win: The Beatles.

Should win: The Beatles, but only if they promise us no more reunions.

BEST ROCK ALBUM

“Sheryl Crow,” the Dave Matthews Band’s “Crash,” No Doubt’s “Tragic Kingdom,” Bonnie Raitt’s “Road Tested,” Neil Young with Crazy Horse’s “Broken Arrow.”

The Matthews Band, which received six votes to four for No Doubt, specializes in the kind of well-crafted, yuppie-targeted pop-rock that the Grammys have long favored.

Will win: Dave Matthews Band.

Should win: Even in an off year, Neil Young tops this field.

BEST R&B; ALBUM

Oleta Adams’ “Moving On,” Maxwell’s “Maxwell’s Urban Hang Suite,” Curtis Mayfield’s “New World Order,” Me’ShellNdegeocello’s “Peace Beyond Passion,” the Tony Rich Project’s “Words.”

Mayfield, who edged Rich by a hair in the sampling, is a sentimental favorite for two reasons: The R&B; legend has never won a Grammy in regular competition, and he has been paralyzed since a 1990 accident. Noted one observer, “It’s a sympathy vote, but it’s also a good album in a somewhat weak field.”

Will win: Mayfield.

Should win: Ndegeocello. She should have been nominated for album of the year.

BEST RAP ALBUM

Coolio’s “Gangsta’s Paradise,” the Fugees’ “The Score,” LL Cool J’s “Mr. Smith,” A Tribe Called Quest’s “Beats, Rhymes and Life,” 2Pac’s “All Eyez on Me.”

“The Fugees are the kind of rap that Grammy voters can get behind--friendly rap,” said one of the eight respondents who picked the hip-hop trio to win. The late 2Pac received three votes, though most viewed his gangsta music and persona as too hard core for the Grammys. “2Pac is too dangerous--and it wasn’t like the Fugees didn’t make a great album,” is the way one executive put it.

Will win: The Fugees.

Should win: The Fugees, for their variety and ambition.

BEST COUNTRY ALBUM

Brooks & Dunn’s “Borderline,” Vince Gill’s “High Lonesome Sound,” Patty Loveless’ “The Trouble With the Truth,” Lyle Lovett’s “The Road to Ensenada,” Trisha Yearwood’s “Everybody Knows,” Dwight Yoakam’s “Gone.”

Brooks & Dunn, Loveless and Yearwood each received three votes. Gill, who has won eight Grammys in the past six years, is also a contender. Loveless, who was voted female vocalist of the year by the Country Music Assn. in October, is the nominee whose star is most clearly on the ascent, and she’s my pick. “I just think it’s her time,” said one label executive.

Will win: Brooks & Dunn, Loveless and Yearwood (tie).

Should win: The best album here is Lovett’s, but is it country?

*

Paul Grein, a Los Angeles freelance writer and voting member of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences, has predicted the Grammy winners for Calendar since 1981.