Economy Gives O.C. a Chance to Make Good

Orange County’s economy is one of the most dynamic in the nation, but it should consider steps now to avoid the social divisions and urban decay that have befallen older urban centers, according to a study to be released this week.

Report author Joel Kotkin, a fellow at Pepperdine University and expert on the Southern California economy, said Orange County has emerged as a “leading post-suburban economy” thanks to growing high-tech companies and thriving ethnic businesses.

Still, older sections of the central county risk being left out of the boom and face some of the same demographic and economic shifts that have already affected part of Los Angeles.

“Orange County has an opportunity now to lessen and avoid some of the class and ethnic divisions that have hurt traditional cities,” Kotkin said. “It’s not too late for this area. But in 20 years, I could see driving down there and seeing the same kind of chasms you see between West L.A. and East L.A.”

While South County is thriving with new residential and commercial construction, working-class immigrant neighborhoods in Santa Ana and surrounding communities are still struggling with a lack of good jobs and the exodus of aerospace and manufacturing jobs.

“In the past, the term ‘Orange Curtain’ has referred to the county’s border with Los Angeles,” the report’s executive summary states. “But now, it may be better understood as a psychological, political and sociological barrier that separates the prosperous parts of the county from the economically challenged core.”

The county’s governments and private sector could improve working-class communities like Santa Ana and Westminster, he said, by providing more job training and education so that unskilled workers can gain the high-paying jobs that are coming to the area.

Kotkin said the county would benefit from promoting its high-tech, multiethnic economy to outsiders while shedding its reputation as a bastion for hard-core conservatism.

“I don’t expect it to be the center of liberalism in the world,” Kotkin said. “But it can position itself as progressive technologically and sociologically--diverse, sophisticated and globally oriented. The economy is already there.”

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The full 24-page report will be released this week and was prepared by the La Jolla Institute, a Claremont-based public policy institute where Kotkin is also a fellow. The study was sponsored by several organizations including the Orange County Business Council, the James Irvine Foundation, Orange County’s United Way, the Orange County Human Relations Commission, the Orange County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and Orange County Korean Chamber of Commerce.

Some community leaders expressed support Tuesday for Kotkin’s findings, saying the county would ultimately suffer from higher crime and greater social upheaval by neglecting struggling communities.

“A gated community can only hold back so much,” said Becky Esparza, vice chairwoman of the Orange County Human Relations Commission.

Kotkin’s report, “Orange County: The Fate of Post-Suburban Paradise,” said the local economy has witnessed a “remarkable turnaround” after suffering a long recession in the early 1990s and county government’s plunge into a bankruptcy in 1994.

Unemployment is at the lowest level in a decade, and total employment is reaching the highest point in the county’s history, the report said.

Kotkin credits Orange County’s growing Latino and Asian communities with helping drive the recovery. But he said the increased diversity will require elected officials to focus more on the needs of ethnic businesses.

“As a critical component to the region’s . . . success, Orange County’s leaders must fully understand the diverse assets and contributions of its ethnic population,” Kotkin says in the report.