WESTERN CONFERENCE

In the East, they have the pursuit of Michael Jordan. In the West, they have a competition to see if there’s anyone worthy of meeting him in the NBA finals.

Aside from the Houston Rockets’ twin miracles in 1994 (the year Jordan was gone) and 1995 (when he reappeared rusty), no Western team has won a title since the Lakers in 1988; the conference is still waiting for its next great power.

The Lakers have lots of players and unresolved issues. The San Antonio Spurs will be good but are probably a year away. The Utah Jazz is old. The Rockets are older. The Seattle SuperSonics are the SuperSonics.

Here’s a team-by-team breakdown, listed in order of predicted finish:

PACIFIC DIVISION

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Last season: 56-26, second place.

On the plus side, they’re the same gifted, young crew whose mere presence scares all of the other teams in the West.

On the minus side, they’re the same volatile, young crew that went bust in the playoffs.

Better health (Shaquille O’Neal sat out 31 games) and better cohesion (Robert Horry arrived out of shape at midseason, then was injured) will help, as will Rick Fox. The real question, however, concerns their character.

Can Shaq really lead? Can Nick Van Exel fall in behind Coach Del Harris after three years of rolling his eyes at him? Will the players who get left out of Harris’ ever-changing rotations start that “I don’t know my role” stuff? Will Elden Campbell nod off when he’s not getting the ball? Can Eddie Jones be the No. 2 option they need? Can Kobe Bryant harness his talent?

If the answers aren’t positive, no amount of raw talent will save them.

Prediction: First place, or more heads than Harris’ will roll.

SEATTLE SONICS

Last season: 57-25, first place.

Some season, peace will return to the SuperSonics.

But not this one.

Of the Three Whackos who propelled them to the ’96 finals, only Gary Payton has mellowed and been signed long term. Shawn Kemp blew up and had to be traded for the more amiable but less-explosive Vin Baker, who led Milwaukee to an average of 26 victories in four seasons.

That leaves Coach George Karl, who turned the SuperSonics around (after going 82-82 for two seasons, they have averaged 59 victories with him) and who has been alternately looking over his shoulder and eyeing greener pastures since owner Barry Ackerley fired his sponsor, General Manager Bob Whitsitt.

Karl complained all fall Ackerley won’t extend his contract, worrying aloud his players will realize he’s a lame duck and go for their shotguns.

The rest of the cast--Sam Perkins, Detlef Schrempf, newly reacquired Dale Ellis--is able but old. Somehow, it doesn’t look like progress.

Prediction: Second place, then Karl splits for big money elsewhere.

PORTLAND BLAZERS

Last season: 49-33, third place.

In three years since bailing out of Seattle, Whitsitt has brought in and revived the careers of Rasheed Wallace, Kenny Anderson and Isaiah Rider. This fall, he and owner Paul Allen’s money netted promising Brian Grant, the former Sacramento King.

It took three years to run off P.J. Carlesimo, whom Allen had hired before he got there, but now Whitsitt has his own man, former Laker Mike Dunleavy, an NBA-style coach in contrast to Carlesimo, who yelled at players as if he was still at Seton Hall. Of course, as last season’s “Jail Blazer” string of arrests suggests, some had more problems than Carlesimo. If they don’t kidnap Dunleavy and hold him for ransom, they’ll be a contender. They’d better get to it. Arvydas Sabonis, their 7-foot-3, 290-pound center, is 32, so they don’t have much time.

Prediction: Third. Ask the Lakers if they weren’t a handful last spring, and next spring they won’t be any easier.

PHOENIX SUNS

Last season: 40-42, fourth place.

After an 0-13 start, 40 victories seemed like a miracle, their thrilling playoff loss to Seattle like the NBA finals and their trades for Jason Kidd and Antonio McDyess like the deals of the century.

However, it’s not going to be a blithe stroll to a title. They’re going to try Clifford Robinson, a small forward, at center. McDyess is still an alluring prospect who doesn’t rebound much (7.3 last season) rather than a star. Kidd still has to learn to shoot, and playing with Kevin Johnson, a commanding figure who needs the ball, might not promote his development. Danny Manning looks ready to crash the lineup, looking for the first time like the player he was before his ’95 knee surgery.

Oh, yes, and they’ll be $8 million to $9 million under the salary cap next summer.

Prediction: Fourth again, then a shopping opportunity.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Last season: 36-46, fifth place.

No one predicted a playoff finish, and experts aren’t lining up to forecast an encore.

Bill Fitch just became the first coach Donald Sterling ever rehired, getting a two-year, $4-million extension, giving the Clippers unusual stability at the top. Now to see if they can take advantage of this harmonious moment.

Their chances depend on Brent Barry, who has been brilliant, if only in flashes, in jaunts out of Fitch’s doghouse, and Stojko Vrankovic, the 7-2 Croatian who couldn’t meet modest expectations in Boston and Minnesota. If they work out, the Clippers can be right there.

However, the Spurs are back and the other playoff teams look all right, so it appears they’ll have to beat out Minnesota. They’re rooting for Stanley Roberts to do for the Timberwolves what he did for them.

Prediction: Fifth place in the Pacific, No. 9 in the West unless Roberts falls on Kevin Garnett and squashes him.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Last season: 34-48, sixth place.

The good news is, Mitch Richmond says he’s not going to hold out to protest the Kings’ failure to move enough people to renegotiate his contract.

The bad news is everything else.

Richmond still wants out. Grant, their best young player, left, as did Tyus Edney, a surprise as a rookie who signed with the Celtics after a disappointing second season. Coach Garry St. Jean, who took them to their first playoff berth in 11 seasons, was fired and took a (better-paying) job as general manager of the Warriors.

Eddie Jordan is the new coach, but the cast--Olden Polynice, Michael Smith, Billy Owens, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Bobby Hurley--is the same old one and it isn’t good enough.

Prediction: Sixth again, unless they lose it altogether and fall to seventh.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Last season: 30-52, seventh place.

The meltdown continues.

Three seasons after the big bang under Don Nelson, the Warriors have not resumed playing with any purpose, other than collecting a check.

They quit on Nelson after the Chris Webber trade, persuading Nellie his future lay elsewhere (such as Maui). They won 26 games that season, then 66 in two seasons under the Dave Twardzik-Rick Adelman management team, persuading ownership to bring down the curtain on yet another era.

Carlesimo, fresh from his triumph in Portland, gets the whip and chair. At least Carlesimo has a strong hand: a $3-million salary and control of the basketball operation. He’ll need it. Latrell Sprewell is talented but willful, last season putting the freeze on Mark Price. Joe Smith seems to want out. Oh, and if they finish in the bottom three, Orlando gets their No. 1 pick, part of the Penny Hardaway-Webber deal.

Prediction: Seventh place. Wait till Carlesimo yells at Sprewell.

MIDWEST DIVISION

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Last season: 57-25, second place.

The Rockets are warming up for another Last Hurrah too gingerly to suit Barkley, who railed at teammates during the exhibition season for being out of shape.

This is when you know you’re in trouble: Barkley, who used to scrawl “Give Chuck a day off” on Paul Westphal’s chalkboard in Phoenix, comes in weighing 275, gets arrested in yet another late-night incident and complains the other players aren’t serious enough.

When Barkley (34), Hakeem Olajuwon (34) and Clyde Drexler (35) were sound, the Rockets were great, but it didn’t happen often--only 40 games, of which they won 32.

Injuries ended the seasons of guards Brent Price and Emanual Davis, obliging the Rockets to find more help, like Eddie Johnson. A year later, everyone is injury free, if not exactly lean and mean, and the roster is deeper.

In case they need prompting, Drexler and Barkley are coming to the end of their contracts, so this looks like their last tango in Houston.

Prediction: First place, if Barkley, Olajuwon and Drexler play 70 games together.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Last season: 20-62, sixth place.

For years, they tried to find players to complement David Robinson, and the best they could come up with was Dennis Rodman.

Last season, fate stepped in. Robinson missed all but six games because of a bad back. They fell into the lottery and leapfrogged the Celtics to get Tim Duncan.

They couldn’t have found a better partner for Robinson if they had drawn one up. The hard-nosed Duncan is 6-11, 250, defends, scores, rebounds and passes so well, Coach Gregg Popovich already is comparing him to Bill Walton. Not since Walton has anyone seen a young center with such fundamentals and grasp of the game.

However, Robinson struggled in the preseason, a long way from his old high-bounding self. Sean Elliott, a 30% three-point shooter before they moved the line in, is struggling, now that they’ve moved it back out. The starting guards were picked off the waiver wire.

Oh, yeah, they went 7-1 in exhibitions, anyway.

Prediction: Second place. Duncan isn’t ready to take over, but the time may not be far off. Like Thanksgiving.

UTAH JAZZ

Last season: 64-18, first place.

After enduring years of scorn for their postseason fades, they went to the finals, even testing the Bulls, making a belated storybook season for some consummate pros.

Unfortunately, they’re consummate old pros.

Karl Malone remains bionic at 34, but John Stockton, 35, who had sat out four games in a 13-season career, underwent knee surgery and is out for two months. Ominously, the Jazz doctor says he doesn’t know whether Stockton will be able to return at his old level.

The other key players--Jeff Hornacek, Greg Ostertag, Bryon Russell--are solid, but there are better, younger teams out there waiting for them.

Prediction: Third place. They’re still a 55-win team, but in this division that might not get you any higher.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Last season: 40-42, third place.

Once a civic embarrassment, the Timberwolves vaulted to respectability, breaking their team record by 11 wins (after a 7-14 start), making the playoffs and then re-signing the 21-year-old Garnett to a $128-million contract.

This season, their mission is to keep improving and then re-sign Stephon Marbury.

It wasn’t all good news, though. Agent Eric Fleischer, who seemed bent on taking Garnett elsewhere, did take another client, center Dean Garrett, to Denver. The Timberwolves needed size even before losing Garrett. Now their centers are spindly Cherokee Parks, sleepy Cliff Rozier and the rarely activated Roberts. Another problem: Fleischer also represents Marbury.

Prediction: Fourth place, another playoff berth and Marbury re-signs.

VANCOUVER GRIZZLIES

Last season: 14-68, seventh place.

Young and clueless, the Grizzlies needed their anonymity in their Pacific Northwest outpost, slumping from 15 wins in their first season to 14, the worst start any NBA team has ever had.

However, last season’s top pick, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, was the real deal, averaging 18.7 points. Bryant Reeves may become a top-10 center, though he’s pricey at his new $11-million salary. This season’s No. 1 pick, point guard Antonio Daniels, is highly regarded. Ex-Laker Anthony Peeler averaged 14.5 points after a slow start.

Needing veterans and leadership, the Grizzlies imported power forward Otis Thorpe and Coach Brian Hill. The dour Thorpe may not take over the clubhouse and Hill had his own problems with his young Magic players, but in Vancouver they look like welcome additions.

Prediction: Fifth place, as they finally pass the elusive 20-win barrier.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Last season: 24-58, fourth place.

Only two Mavericks remain from last season’s opening-day roster, Samaki Walker and Coach Jim Cleamons. Of the two, Walker is favored to have the longer career in Dallas.

Nelson, the general manager who was hired at midseason to take over from minority owner Frank Zaccanelli, a Realtor who traded Kidd while watching the office, seemed ready to fire Cleamons until owner Ross Perot Jr. decreed the coach would return.

Perot didn’t say how long Cleamons has to stay, though. The betting around the league is still that Nellie axes him and makes himself coach.

In the meantime, Nelson said they should challenge for the playoffs (what, in the CBA?). Cleamons gulped when he heard that one. Since, Robert Pack, Kurt Thomas and Eric Strickland have suffered injuries that are expected to keep them out of the opener.

Any way you cut it, it doesn’t look good for Cleamons.

Prediction: Sixth place, because the Nuggets are in the division.

DENVER NUGGETS

Last season: 21-61, fifth place.

After a brief rebuilding program, ending when they let Dikembe Mutombo go in some unwise downsizing, they’re back to kindergarten, with two rookies starting.

Hoping for some good PR, they hired popular ex-Nugget Allan Bristow as the new general manager, replacing Bernie Bickerstaff, who bolted before they could fire him. Bristow never did much in Charlotte except finish well in draft lotteries and he started his second Nugget career inauspiciously, trading McDyess for three No. 1 picks, none of which may be in the lottery, and two No. 2 picks.

They’ll start newly arrived Tony Battie at power forward and Bobby Jackson at point guard. In three seasons, they figure to have lost 150 more games and Battie and Jackson can go somewhere as free agents, if someone wants them.

Nice guy Bill Hanzlik, another popular former Nugget, makes his coaching debut. He’d better think up some funny things to say after losses.

Prediction: Seventh place amid speculation of the coming of Karl, or Phil Jackson or Isiah Thomas or. . . .

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HOW THEY FINISHED IN 1996-97

PACIFIC DIVISION

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Team W L Pct. GB Seattle 57 25 .695 -- Lakers 56 26 .683 1 Portland 49 33 .598 8 Phoenix 40 42 .488 17 Clippers 36 46 .439 21 Sacramento 34 48 .415 23 Golden State 30 52 .366 27

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MIDWEST DIVISION

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Team W L Pct. GB Utah 64 18 .780 -- Houston 57 25 .695 7 Minnesota 40 42 .488 24 Dallas 24 58 .293 40 Denver 21 61 .256 43 San Antonio 20 62 .244 44 Vancouver 14 68 .171 50

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