It’s Heavy Traffic Ahead as Far as They Can Foresee

If you expect to be working in Orange County 23 years from now, better plan on spending a lot more time in your car.

That’s the message in a report released by the Orange County Transportation Authority last week that paints a dire picture of Orange County’s freeway future. Unless something is done, the report concludes, commuters will spend 81% more time driving to work at speeds 26% slower during rush hours in the year 2020 than they do now. That’s because there will be 42% more traffic on the road.

“It sounds like we definitely have a problem,” Mike Ward, a member of the OCTA’s board of directors, said of the report, which predicts an average increase in commuting times from 26.4 minutes to 47.7 minutes per day. The report also forecasts a decrease in average peak-hour speeds from about 25 mph to about 19 mph, and an increase in the number of miles driven daily in the county from about 61,000 to about 86,000.

Among other projections in the report:

* A 120% increase in the number of hours that commuters are delayed, from about 532,000 to about 1.168 million per day;

* Dramatic increases in the number of workers commuting to places of employment in Orange County from locations outside the county;

* A 29% increase in the average number of miles driven to work, from 12.1 to 15.6 miles each day.

“We really need to get serious” about solving these problems, Sarah Catz, another OCTA board member, said.

In fact, that was the purpose of the report. Titled “Fast Forward: Transportation Solutions for the Next Generation,” it was published by the transportation agency as sort of a wake-up call designed to kick off a yearlong discussion of transportation issues.

The OCTA will begin the process later this month with several full-page newspaper ads inviting public input. And after a series of forums, surveys and hearings, the agency hopes to come up by next June with a set of specific recommendations designed to stave off the county’s projected motor-clogged future.

“What we want to do is make sure that our transportation system is moving at the same rate as the county’s economy,” OCTA spokesman John Standiford said.

From 1995 to 2020, the report points out, the county’s population is expected to grow by 22%--from 2.67 million to 3.24 million. During the same period, the number of jobs in the county is expected to increase by 70% and the number of housing units by 24%.

“We’ve already accomplished a lot in Orange County regarding transportation,” Standiford said, “but given all the growth that’s projected, we’re going to have to do even more.”

The latest report assumes completion of all the transportation improvement projects currently approved and at various stages of development, OCTA officials said.

Thus, while it took into account the improvements brought by such projects as the widening of the Santa Ana Freeway, the addition of car pool lanes at various locations countywide and completion of numerous transit ways, freeway connectors and the Eastern toll road, it did not consider the potential impact of a light rail system currently being discussed but not yet approved.

In fact, some board and staff members say, it may be such alternatives to the automobile that prove to be the county’s salvation.

“This will be the first time we are going to have to really take some hard looks at trains in Orange County because we’re becoming more urban,” said OCTA Executive Director Lisa Mills. “And when you’re urban, you don’t have the land to keep building more roads.”

Ward agrees. “There are people who believe that the only way to solve this problem is to build more roads,” he said, “but I don’t believe that. There has to be a solution other than to just keep concreting over the land; there have to be alternative means of transportation.”

More than likely, board members say, the area’s future congestion will be eased by a combination of transportation solutions, including buses and trains.

“What we really need,” Catz said, “is to provide a transportation system giving people choices that make sense. We need everything from highways and transitways [elevated carpool and bus lanes] to light rail and commuter buses--a whole smorgasbord.”

Providing such a system will require creativity, according to board member and County Supervisor Todd Spitzer. “We will have to look at innovative ways of building more roads not at public expense,” he said. “Toll roads are certainly something the region has bought into. And we have to look at alternative forms of transportation such as buses and rail.”

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Cars, Still

Well into the next century, Orange County commuters will still be mostly driving to work alone. Projected commuting choices in 2020:

Drive alone: 76%

Carpool: 11%

Mass transit: 5%

Bike: 1%

Work at home: 7%

Source: Orange County Transportation Authority

Congestion Ahead

By the year 2020, Orange County will be serving as even more of a job magnet than it is now. From 1990 to 2020, the number of commuters arriving from or going to neighboring counties daily will increase by a projected 117%; the number leaving the county each day will jump 57%. Here’s how that change is expected to vary to and from each of the surrounding counties:

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To O.C. From O.C. County from to Los Angeles 98% 72% Riverside 172% -43% San Bernardino 115% 5% San Diego 119% 58%

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If Nothing Changes

Should the county’s transportation facilities and infrastructure not change from present, including those projects that are already approved and funded, commuters will face a more troublesome drive. The changes from 1995 to 2020:

Measure: % Change

Daily miles driven: 42%

Daily hours driven: 64%

Hours of delay: 120%

Delay as % of hours driven: 9%

Daily average speed (mph): -13%

Peak period speed: -26%

Commute time (minutes): 81%

Commute distance: 29%

Source: Orange County Transportation Authority