County Sees Air-Passenger Demand Doubling by 2020

Arming themselves with more statistics that they say demonstrate the need for a commercial airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, county planners Wednesday released a new aviation forecast suggesting that passenger demand in the region will nearly double by 2020.

In unveiling the findings, the county’s aviation experts said they need to rely on their own information to ensure accuracy when they draw up the airport master plan, scheduled to be completed in the fall of 1999.

“This is just another step in the process,” said Ron Ahlfedt of P&D; Aviation of Orange, the county’s lead consultant for the master plan. “It allows us to completely understand and defend the numbers we are using.”

County planners say passenger demand in Southern California will increase from 91.8 million travelers in 1996 to 178.6 million in 2020. That number is about 15 million more passengers annually than the estimate by the Southern California Assn. of Governments, which also compiled studies on the air passenger needs of the region.

To handle regional growth, airports in Ontario, Burbank and Los Angeles are expanding, while March Air Force Base in Riverside County and Palmdale Airport in the Antelope Valley plan to develop airports. SCAG officials have said they see the LAX expansion and development of El Toro as critical to accommodating growth.

Even El Toro airport opponents don’t dispute the projected increase in passenger demand. But they argue that a new airport should be built in a community where there is solid support.

“How do we meet that demand? There are other options available like Palmdale, Ontario and March,” said Richard T. Dixon, chairman of the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority, a coalition of seven anti-airport cities.

Not every community needs an airport if fast and economical transportation, such as light rail systems, is developed to get passengers to the terminal, he said.

“Airports should not be built in communities that are opposed to it,” said Dixon, a Lake Forest City Council member. “Why continue to try to shove a square peg in a round hole? It doesn’t fit, and it’s not going to fit.”

The county’s data, based on population and income reports in six Southern California counties, estimates that the number of domestic passengers will grow from 77.6 million in 1996 to 128.1 million annual passengers by 2020. International travelers will increase from 14.2 million in 1996 to 50.5 million by 2020. Cargo use will increase from 2.5 million tons shipped in 1996 to 8.9 million in 2020.

“I think these figures demonstrate yet again the strong need in Orange County for additional air service that can be provided at El Toro,” said Courtney Wiercioch, who heads the county’s El Toro project. “The rest of the region is not interested in stepping up to serve traffic that can and should be served within our own boundaries.”

Explaining the reason for their higher numbers in comparison with SCAG’s, county officials said they included San Diego’s Lindbergh Field airport in their calculations, whereas SCAG did not.

Southern California is home to more airports per capita than any other region in the world, according to SCAG.

A study by SCAG found that by 2020, the region’s 14 biggest airports could accommodate as many as 170 million passengers annually, assuming that El Toro is built and LAX is expanded.

If El Toro plans are scrapped, according to SCAG, the regional capacity would drop by 4% to 163 million passengers a year--a number that is still more than the 157.4 million annual passenger demand SCAG estimates by the year 2020.

The regional planning organization found in 1993 that El Toro was the best site for a new airport of the five closing military bases in Southern California, including March. Palmdale and March sit on the fringes of the region and lack the population and job base of El Toro and LAX, aviation and economics experts have said.

The county is scheduled to release more detailed Orange County aviation forecasts with four preliminary airport alternative plans on April 17, Ahlfedt said.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Air Traffic Demand

P&D; Aviation projects general aviation travel and cargo shipments in Southern California to increase across the board over the next few decades, with international travel and cargo undergoing the biggest percentage growth. Changes in millions of annual passengers or tons:

Regional

1996: 91.8

2020: 178.6

*

Domestic

1996: 77.6

2020: 128.1

*

International

1996: 14.2

2020: 50.5

*

Cargo

1996: 2.5 tons

2020: 8.9 tons

Source: P&D; Aviation; Researched by LORENZA MUnOZ/Los Angeles Times