So Far, the Year Sounds Pretty Interesting

Now that the critics’ polls have been tabulated and the Grammy nominations parceled out for the best records of 1997, it’s time to look ahead.

The outlook for the first half of this year: lots of superstar acts eager to test their sales punch during a time of unusual unpredictability in pop music. Who, for instance, would have figured that two of the biggest sellers of 1997 would be such pop confections as England’s Spice Girls and Oklahoma’s Hanson?

Given the capricious nature of the pop landscape, there’ll certainly be some left-field collections on the 1998 year-end Top 10 sales chart. But there will also be some top names that do deliver commercially--just as there were last year when Garth Brooks, Celine Dion and Mariah Carey, among others, fulfilled their labels’ expectations.

The contenders this year are headed by Madonna, who returns after a three-year hiatus from the dance-pop world (call them her “Evita” years) with a new record that stresses heavy techno influences; Pearl Jam, which the record industry is watching closely to see if the Seattle band can reestablish its position as America’s top-selling rock group of the ‘90s; and Hole, whose album will tell us whether leader Courtney Love can really balance careers in film and music.

Rock’s ‘60s contingent will also be competing for boomer dollars. Robert Plant and Jimmy Page have made their first studio album together since the Led Zeppelin days, while Eric Clapton--who has not released an album of original material since 1989--will deliver what a spokeswoman for the guitarist describes as a “very personal” record.

And there will be a flood of ‘90s acts trying to demonstrate that they have the depth and appeal to be long-term artists. Among them: Tori Amos, Brandy, Garbage, R. Kelly and Liz Phair.

Place your bets.

Here are the 20 albums that the industry will be watching most closely over the next six months.

Pearl Jam: Feb. 3 (Epic Records). Now that the alternative music firestorm has died down to just a few embers, is the world ready to embrace another Pearl Jam album?

In an interview in November, singer Eddie Vedder described the work, titled “Yield,” as “a natural progression” from “No Code,” the 1996 album that was critically hailed for its reflective tone. The songs the band previewed in recent concert appearances with the Rolling Stones combined the grace of “No Code” with the quintet’s raucous, guitar-driven roots.

“Given to Fly,” an album track that has already been released to radio, is picking up impressive airplay. After just two weeks, it was already No. 2 on the mainstream rock chart in Billboard and No. 5 in the modern rock chart.

The question with retailers is whether the band will regain its original sales muscle. The group’s first two albums, 1992’s “Ten” and 1993’s “Vs.,” sold collectively more than 15 million copies in the U.S., according to the Recording Industry Assn. of America. “No Code” has only sold about 1.3 million copies, according to SoundScan. One thing that should help: The group is planning its most extensive U.S. tour in years.

Ani DiFranco: Feb. 17 (Righteous Babe). The maverick folk-rocker with her own record label made significant inroads into the mainstream last year with her double live CD, “Living in Clip.” The question here is whether her ninth studio album, “Little Plastic Castle,” will be a breakthrough collection that will move her beyond the cult level. Despite glowing reviews and an impressive number of sold-out concerts around the country, her biggest seller to date (“Dilate”) has only sold about 200,000 copies. Said to be slightly less sexually frank than “Dilate,” her high-profile 1996 studio album, “Little Plastic Castle” may well get the big radio boost that this independent-minded singer-songwriter deserves.

Madonna: March 3 (Maverick/Warner Bros.). Madonna has apparently been listening to a lot of electronic music since her last formal pop release, 1994’s 2-million-seller “Bedtime Stories.” Her new release, tentatively titled “Ray of Light,” will prominently feature techno-driven dance music. Co-produced by British ambient techno artist William Orbit, the collection also reunites Madonna with her longtime songwriting partner, Patrick Leonard, for the first time since 1992. And it looks as if she’s serious about reclaiming a bit of her old pop glory. She has signed on with Q Prime, the management firm that is best known for its success with such hard-rockers as Metallica, and there’s talk about a tour.

Eric Clapton: March 10 (Warner Bros.). The legendary British rocker waited even longer than Madonna--almost a decade--to release an album of new material. Not that it’s affected his album sales: His 1994 album of old blues songs, “From the Cradle,” sold more than 2 million copies, and his 1992 “MTV Unplugged” album sold more than 7 million. His “Change the World” single, from the “Phenomenon” soundtrack album, went to No. 5 in 1996 and won a Grammy for record of the year. The new album is titled “Pilgrim” and its first single, “My Father’s Eyes,” is dedicated to Clapton’s late son, Conor, who was also the subject of Clapton’s multi-Grammy-winning 1992 recording “Tears in Heaven.”

Van Halen: March 17 (Warner Bros.). After severing ties with its second lead singer, Sammy Hagar, and a very public imbroglio with original frontman David Lee Roth in 1996, Southern California’s venerable hard-rockers are finally set to release their first album with new recruit Gary Cherone. Titled “III” (a reference to the band’s third lineup), it will undoubtedly be chock-a-block with VH’s trademark riff-happy anthems and magisterial power balladry. The band’s last studio album, 1995’s “Balance,” went to No. 1 on the nation’s sales chart.

Scott Weiland: March 17 (Atlantic). The Stone Temple Pilots lead singer’s first solo album, “12 Bar Blues,” is co-produced by Daniel Lanois, whose credits range from U2’s “The Joshua Tree” to Bob Dylan’s new “Time Out of Mind.” Weiland, who has battled drug problems in recent years, is expected to tour in late spring. All three of the STP albums have made the national Top 5, though 1996’s “Tiny Music . . . Songs From the Vatican Gift Shop,” badly trailed the group’s first two in overall sales.

Robert Plant and Jimmy Page: March (TBA) (Atlantic). When the singer and the guitarist for British rock monolith Led Zeppelin decided to reunite for an “MTV Unplugged” performance and subsequent world tour in 1996, they once again tapped into the mother lode. “No Quarter,” the album culled from the “Unplugged” performances, went straight into the Top 10 and the tour sold out across the board. Which is why we’ll be seeing a new studio album from the duo--their first as a team since Led Zeppelin’s “In Through the Out Door” in 1979. The collection was produced by indie-rock producer Steve Albini, who has worked with Nirvana and PJ Harvey. Led Zeppelin reminded us of its continuing sales punch late last year as “BBC Sessions,” a two-disc package of vintage live radio recordings, was declared platinum (1 million in sales) almost instantly.

Faith Evans: April (Bad Boy/Arista). The R&B; singer from the Sean “Puffy” Combs family of artists sold a whopping 1.5 million copies of her 1995 debut album, “Faith,” and teamed up with Combs (a.k.a. Puff Daddy) last year on the smash hit “I’ll Be Missing You,” a tribute to her late husband, rapper the Notorious B.I.G. Combs will also be involved in the production of the new album, titled “Keep the Faith.”

Bonnie Raitt: April (Capitol). It’s been four years since Raitt’s last studio album, the double-platinum “Longing in Their Hearts,” but she’s an artist with solid musical instincts and a loyal fan base, so the new “Fundamental,” produced by Mitchell Froom instead of the usual Don Was, should be among the biggest sellers of the season.

Garbage: Tentatively April (Almo Sounds). Producer-musician Butch Vig’s band made a huge splash in 1995 with its debut album, “Garbage,” which made a star of sultry singer Shirley Manson, so expectations are high for the quartet’s sophomore release. According to a label spokesman, the band is currently putting the finishing touches on the album and will mount a world tour this year.

Tori Amos: May (Atlantic). The willowy chanteuse, who is one of the most intense of the heralded ‘90s generation of female pop singer-songwriters, has put together three straight platinum albums, and Atlantic is optimistic that the new, still-untitled fourth album will continue the streak. The album reportedly features a more expansive, band-oriented sound than Amos’ 1996 album, “Boys for Pele.” She’ll also be doing limited touring.

Brandy: May (Atlantic). The 18-year-old singer-actress’ 1994 debut sold 3 million copies and spawned three Top 20 hits. Since then, she’s been starring in her own popular sitcom, “Moesha,” and last year she starred in a new television version of “Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella.” Her new untitled album, scheduled for release in early May, returns her to the pop arena.

R. Kelly: May (Jive). The R&B; singer is one of the decade’s best-selling solo artists. His three albums have sold close to 10 million copies collectively, and “I Believe I Can Fly,” Kelly’s song from the “Space Jam” soundtrack, spent 34 weeks on Billboard’s Top 100 singles chart and picked up Grammy nominations for best single record and song. With that kind of track record, retailers are counting on his new album to become one of the mega-hits of the season.

Hole: May (Geffen). Now that Courtney Love has traded in her tattered baby doll dresses for Ungaro evening gowns, can she still cut it as a rocker? We’ll find out when her band, Hole, releases its new album. Produced by Michael Beinhorn (Soundgarden, Red Hot Chili Peppers), the as-yet-untitled work is, according to one source, “less angst-y, and more pop oriented” than the corrosive “Live Through This,” which topped scores of critics’ list in 1994.

Liz Phair: June (Matador/Capitol). The indie-rock provocateur’s brilliant 1993 debut, “Exile in Guyville,” is now regarded as one of the most important albums of the decade, but its so-so follow-up, 1994’s “Whip-Smart,” didn’t turn her into a superstar, so Phair retreated from the public eye. Since the second album, she has married, given birth to a son and left the rock world wondering about her next move. The Chicago native has been working on a third album, tentatively titled “Whitechocolatespacegg,” in fits and starts for more than two years now, but her label claims that it’s about ready.

The Beastie Boys: Summer (Grand Royal/Capitol): One of hip-hop’s most durable acts, the Beastie Boys are currently in the studio recording the follow-up to their 1994 double-platinum album “Ill Communication.” Twelve years after their debut, “Licensed to Ill,” rap’s merry pranksters remain immensely popular, and retailers are tagging this album as one of the can’t-miss blockbusters of the season.

Chris Cornell: Summer (A&M;). The vocalist for the recently disbanded--and enormously successful--Seattle band Soundgarden is heading into the studio next month to record his first solo album, which his label says may be ready for a summer release.

Alan Jackson: To Be Scheduled (Arista). There’s no stopping this lanky Georgian, whose resume includes 14 chart-topping country hits and 18 million albums sold since 1989. No word yet on when his new album will be released, but the first single is called “A House With No Curtains.”

Brooks & Dunn: To Be Scheduled (Arista). The country duo has sold 12 million albums since 1991, and retailers expect its new album to jockey with label-mate Jackson’s for chart supremacy this year.

Nine Inch Nails: Summer (Nothing/Interscope). NIN ringleader Trent Reznor is holed up in his New Orleans studio working on some tracks with producer Alan Moulder (Smashing Pumpkins, My Bloody Valentine) for the follow-up to 1994’s double-platinum paean to pain, “The Downward Spiral.” When asked by Alternative Press magazine recently to describe the new album’s sound, Reznor came up with the following pithy assessment: “Think of the most ridiculous music you could ever imagine . . . with nursery rhymes over the top of it.” The album is tentatively titled “The Fragile,” and, a spokeswoman warns, it could be pushed back to early fall.