Full Speed Ahead

Before the Dec. 19 release of “Titanic,” many industry pundits predicted that Jim Cameron’s $200-million-plus production would sink the job of at least one senior executive at 20th Century Fox--movie chairman Bill Mechanic--as the film went down in a sea of red ink.

Today, those same individuals are forecasting that “Titanic” will be the most successful motion picture of all time, surpassing the $914-million worldwide theatrical gross of Steven Spielberg’s 1993 hit, “Jurassic Park,” and generating profits in excess of $400 million, to be divvied up among Fox, Paramount Pictures and Cameron.

When it hit $274.6 million in domestic box office over the weekend, “Titanic” knocked Spielberg’s “Jaws” from 10th place on the list of highest-grossing films in the U.S.

Not only does Mechanic’s job appear to be secure, but shares in Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., Fox’s parent, have surged 17% since Christmas, at least partly based on analysts’ expectations that “Titanic” is going to be uniquely successful and could drive profits higher.

Cameron’s three-hour, 14-minute retelling of the 1912 maritime disaster has become one of those rare motion pictures--like “E.T.,” “Star Wars” and “Independence Day”--that are global cultural phenomena, transcending the Hollywood moniker of a box-office blockbuster or an event movie.

“Titanic” itself has become a global event. Let’s face it, you don’t want to be the only one in a roomful of people who hasn’t yet seen the movie.

“I’ve never seen a phenomenon like this,” remarked Rob Friedman, vice chairman of Paramount’s Motion Picture Group, noting that not only are young girls flocking to the movie to gawk at Leonardo DiCaprio (known as “The Leo Factor”), but adults are also going back to see it repeatedly.

In addition to racking up nearly $275 million at the domestic box office in record time, the film has already generated overseas theatrical sales of more than $217 million and has the biggest-selling score soundtrack since SoundScan began electronically tracking album sales in 1991.

Last week, the instrumental soundtrack, released by Sony Classical/Sony Soundtrax--featuring only one pop song by Canadian singer Celine Dion--sold a phenomenal 415,000 copies in the United States alone--more than Garth Brooks, Puffy Combs, LeAnn Rimes and the Spice Girls combined.

Even the Harper/Collins book spawned by the movie, “James Cameron’s ‘Titanic,’ ” documenting the behind-the-scenes making of the motion picture, is No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list for nonfiction paperbacks.

While most hit movies open big and gradually drop off, “Titanic” has sustained an unsurpassed level of business. It’s the only film ever to gross more than $25 million on six consecutive weekends.

(Five titles, including “Independence Day,” “The Lion King,” “Twister,” “Forrest Gump” and “Jurassic Park” each grossed over $20 million three weekends in a row. And “Home Alone” reigned as the nation’s top film for six weekends, but not at “Titanic” levels.)

It also grossed $250 million faster than any other film ever (36 days), beating the previous mark of 37 days by “Jurassic Park.” This coming weekend, “Titanic” could become the fastest ever to reach $300 million (in 45 days) ahead of record holder “Jurassic Park” (67 days).

The film’s international stamina is just as potent. According to Fox international president Jim Gianopulos, this last weekend alone saw “Titanic” gross a whopping $51.5 million, with business in Italy up 40%. The film’s biggest drop-off in any foreign territory was 5%, said Gianopulos, with most markets reporting a 10% to 20% increase.

The film’s business is even more impressive considering its three-hours-plus running time generally limits the picture to three screenings a day in a theater, compared with the usual five.

Given its unsurpassed staying power--over this last Super Bowl weekend it grossed $25.2 million domestically and only dropped off 16% from the previous weekend--it’s virtually impossible to predict how much money “Titanic” will ultimately yield from all revenue sources, including home video, television and other ancillary sales.

Earlier this month, the broadcast rights to the picture were sold to NBC for $30 million, covering five airings during a five-year window beginning in 2000. There’s talk in Hollywood that perhaps Paramount, the studio that made the sale, was too hasty in cutting a deal before the box office played out, since the payment fell short of the $80 million Fox Broadcasting dished out for “The Lost World: Jurassic Park” and the $50 million NBC paid for “Men in Black.”

Paramount executives declined to discuss the sale, but an insider argued that the other two TV sales covered more runs over longer periods. In any case, “Titanic” is racking up the bucks faster than any movie before it.

Mechanic claims that the brass at Fox, which financed the lion’s share of the production with Paramount capping its investment at $65 million, hasn’t even begun to extrapolate what the movie’s worldwide take might be.

“We’re just enjoying the success and don’t know where this is going,” Mechanic said Monday morning following the film’s record sixth weekend as the nation’s top-grossing film.

“It’s performing in a way we never expected. . . . We’re not even running numbers,” because it doesn’t fit any of the standard financial models that work for most films, Mechanic said.

In an understatement, he added, “I know we’re out of the woods and we’ll be in profit.” Early on, even the Fox movie chief had gone on record saying Fox couldn’t make a “justifiable return” on its investment. Who knew?

While executives at Fox and Paramount may not want to project what “Titanic” could potentially yield, their competitors are busy doing just that.

In one movie studio veteran’s opinion, “Titanic” could out-gross “Jurassic Park” by tens of millions of dollars.

The source estimates the movie could wind up grossing more than $400 million domestically and $550 million internationally, based on its slow drop-off rate and an expected bump from upcoming nominations and awards. The film, which won several Golden Globes, including best picture, is a front-runner at the Oscars, for which nominations will be announced Feb. 10. (Cameron, who won a Globe for best director, received a Directors Guild of America nomination Monday.)

If the film does attract more than $900 million in worldwide box-office receipts, that means Paramount and Fox will see about half that (with the rest going to theater owners). According to some estimates, the studio partners could also net profits from worldwide video sales of more than $200 million and worldwide TV sales of $100 million.

Add in other ancillaries, including book and music sales, and the total amount coming back to the studios could be $800 million or more. Cameron, who opted to take no money upfront when the production went 100% over budget, will get a nice chunk of those profits, and Fox and Paramount--which shared the worldwide marketing costs and other distribution charges--will split the rest after recouping their respective investments.

Times staff writer Chuck Philips contributed to this column.

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Giantic ‘Titanic’

“Titanic” could become the highest grossing film of all time, in large part because of the repeat business it is generating. Here are some records the film is breaking and indications of its continuing strength:

Repeat business

A recent audience exit poll showed that one in five moviegoers has seen the film more than once.

‘The Leo Factor’

The survey showed 72% of the repeat business are women, 64% of whom are younger than 25 and going ga-ga over star Leonardo Di Caprio (at right and below with Kate Winslet). The core audience for most big action-adventure movies is men younger than 25.

Adults Like It Too

Also significant is the strong repeat business among adults. (Adult older than 25 have accounted for a third of all repeat business.)

More Records

* Only film to gross more than $25 million for six consecutive weekends

* Fastest film to gross $250 million (36 days), beating “Jurassic Park” (37 days)

* Largest Christmas Day and New Year’s Day gross ever

* Largest gross to date for a motion picture more than three hours long, eclipsing “Dances With Wolves,” which grossed $184.2 million.

* Believed to be the best-selling score soundtrack of all time (after just 10 weeks), with Sony Music estimating $38 million in worldwide sales so far and another $87 million by year-end.

Source: Industry sources

Top Films

“Titanic” has bumped “Jaws” from the list of the top 10-grossing films (domestically) of all time.

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Total box office Title Distributor (millions) 1. Star Wars* 20th Cent. Fox $461.0 2. E.T., the Extra-Terrestrial Universal 399.8 3. Jurassic Park Universal 356.8 4. Forrest Gump Paramount 329.6 5. The Lion King Buena Vista 312.8 6. Return of the Jedi 20th Cent. Fox 309.2 7. Independence Day 20th Cent. Fox 306.2 8. The Empire Strikes Back 20th Cent. Fox 290.3 9. Home Alone 20th Cent. Fox 285.8 10. Titanic Paramount 274.6

Opening Title date 1. Star Wars* May 1977 2. E.T., the Extra-Terrestrial June 1982 3. Jurassic Park June 1993 4. Forrest Gump April 1994 5. The Lion King June 1994 6. Return of the Jedi May 1983 7. Independence Day July 1996 8. The Empire Strikes Back May 1980 9. Home Alone Nov. 1990 10. Titanic Dec. 1997

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*”Star Wars” gross includes $130 million from its recent reissue.

Source: Baseline II