Race Analysis

$1-Million Mile

Field (in alphabetical order)

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Horse Trainer Wt. Odds Among Men Michael Stoute 126 12-1 Cape Cross Saeed Bin Suroor 126 15-1 Da Hoss Michael Dickinson 126 15-1 Desert Prince David Loder 123 3-1 Favorite Trick Bill Mott 123 12-1 Fly To The Stars Saeed Bin Suroor 126 15-1 Gentlemen Richard Mandella 126 5-1 Hawksley Hill Neil Drysdale 126 15-1 Joyeux Danseur Albert Stall 126 15-1 Labeeb Neil Drysdale 126 6-1 Military Wally Dollase 126 15-1 Second Empire Aidan O’Brien 123 12-1 Waky Nao Andreas Schutz 126 30-1

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Also Eligibles

(listed in order of preference)

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Horse Trainer Wt. Odds Gold Away Christiane Head 123 20-1 Elusive Quality* Bill Mott 126 10-1 Charge d’Affaires A. De Royer-Dupre 123 30-1 Almushtarak Kamil Mahdi 126 50-1 Magellan Ben Cecil 126 20-1 Keos John Hammond 126 20-1 Mr Lightfoot Frank Lyons 126 30-1 Poteen Jean De Roualle 126 20-1 Sahm Kiaran McLaughlin 126 15-1

*--*

*--Second Preference

* Story line: European horses have won three of the last four Miles, topped by Spinning World’s impressive victory a year ago at Hollywood Park.

Many experts think the hot streak will continue with Desert Prince, the probable favorite in the field of 14.

Winner of five of 10 starts in England, the 3-year-old son of Green Desert has three Group I victories in his last four starts and missed by a neck in the fourth, losing to Dr Fong in the St. James Palace Stakes in June.

Trained by David Loder, Desert Prince has won three of five at a mile and was second and third in his two defeats.

Still, the talent is deep in perhaps the day’s most difficult race and an upset would hardly be shocking. Labeeb has been on his best behavior this year and is unbeaten in three starts, Gentlemen is more than capable of excelling on turf, European import Among Men has won six of 11, Favorite Trick impressed in his first start on grass, Hawksley Hill is best at a mile and Da Hoss will try to join Miesque and Lure as a two-time winner of the race.

* Keys to the race: With 14 horses going a flat mile on turf, racing luck will be key. Nobody’s going to emulate Lure and win this on the lead.

* The pick: With Dr Fong losing as the favorite Sunday in the Oak Tree Derby, Desert Prince loses a little luster. Labeeb can kick with anyone and he gets up in a blanket finish.

$2-Million Turf

Field (in alphabetical order)

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Horse Trainer Wt. Odds Bonapartiste Ron McAnally 126 12-1 Buck’s Boy Noel Hickey 126 10-1 Caitano Andreas Schutz 126 15-1 Cetewayo Michael Dickinson 126 12-1 Chief Bearhart Mark Frostad 126 10-1 Daylami Saeed Bin Suroor 126 7-2 Insatiable Michael Stoute 126 5-1 Labeeb* Neil Drysdale 126 15-1 Leggera John Dunlop 119 8-1 Military*--a Wally Dollase 126 5-2 River Bay Bobby Frankel 126 12-1 Royal Anthem--a Henry Cecil 122 5-2 Subordination* Gary Sciacca 126 20-1 Yagli Bill Mott 126 20-1

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Also Eligibles

(listed in order of preference)

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Horse Trainer Wt. Odds Dushyantor Bobby Frankel 126 15-1 Sunshine Street Noel Meade 122 30-1 Frapper Le Or Robert Vukelic 122 100-1

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*--Second Preference

a--The Thoroughbred Corp.-owned entry

* Story line: If Royal Anthem is unable to run because of a hoof problem, Daylami will probably be the favorite for the Turf, the longest of the Breeders’ Cup races at 1 1/2 miles.

Given the way this race has gone the previous three times at Churchill Downs, the public choice is not what anybody wants to be.

Beginning with Great Communicator at 12-1 in 1988, upsets have been standard in Kentucky. Miss Alleged, who was part of the mutuel field in 1991, won by half a length at 42-1, then, three years later, Tikkanen came through at 16-1 under jockey Mike Smith.

A winner of half of his 14 starts and with earnings of more than $1.1 million, Daylami deserves to be the choice if Royal Anthem doesn’t go, but he may be vulnerable.

After winning the Man O’ War at Belmont Park on Sept. 12, Daylami went back to England and finished third as the favorite in the Champion Stakes. Now, less than a month later, he has made another trip back to the United States and all the travel may take its toll.

* Keys to the race: Buck’s Boy is likely to set the pace, has won three of four at the distance and Great Communicator was on the lead most of the way in his upset 10 years ago. Racing luck and whichever horse is best able to kick it in late will probably determine this one. The European contingent is strong and won’t be compromised if it rains and the turf comes up soft.

* The pick: In a mild upset, Insatiable. The 5-year-old finished in front of Daylami at Newmarket last month and is trained by Michael Stoute, who won the race with Pilsudski at 13-1 in 1996.

Saturday

Churchill Downs

Channel 4

10 a.m.