Sanchez Leading Dornan, Times Poll Shows

U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez holds a substantial lead over Republican Robert K. Dornan in the race for her central Orange County congressional seat, according to a new Times Orange County poll.

The Garden Grove Democrat, who narrowly defeated Dornan two years ago, outpolled the former GOP congressman 48% to 34% among residents likely to vote in the Nov. 3 election.

But a sizable number of voters--17%--are still undecided. And among voters who are most likely to cast ballots in the 46th Congressional District race, Sanchez’s lead shrinks to 11 percentage points.

“Sanchez is within reach of winning the election, but she’s still short of a majority at this point, so there’s still room for movement at the last minute,” said Cheryl Katz, director of the Times Orange County poll.

“The election could come down simply to who turns out to vote.”

Sanchez won two years ago by 984 votes, 46.7% to 45.8%, in a year when turnout in the district among Democrats surpassed the national average. This year, Democratic turnout is expected to fall, as it typically does in nonpresidential elections.

Latinos, who make up 23% of the district’s voters, played a big part in Sanchez’s 1996 victory, and they remain a large factor this time. The poll found that 68% of Latinos say they are inclined to vote for her.

Although Dornan’s 14-month effort to overturn the election results from two years ago gave both candidates black eyes, the challenge is not making a significant difference to many voters overall. Of those surveyed, 44% said it does not affect their vote.

The Times poll interviewed 1,000 likely voters in the 46th Congressional District by telephone from Oct. 15 to 18. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 to 3.5 percentage points.