The Winds of Change: How Long Will They Blow?

Tuesday’s primary election provided a glimpse of the swirling changes that are on the table in the last years of the Richard Riordan administration. Normally, mayoralties end quietly, and Los Angeles elections without a mayoral race are somnolent affairs. Not this time. Big changes are being discussed, and the Mayor has been the main focus of the proposed reforms.

Over the next several years, Los Angeles residents will decide whether the City should stay together or divide through secession, whether the massive Los Angeles school district should be revamped, and whether the 75 year old City Charter should be replaced with a new Charter in June.

Tuesday’s election reveals that, even though there is still no great urge to vote, there is some public appetite for reform. We won’t know how great that appetite is until after the general election on June 8th.

Richard Riordan has already brought great resources to his reform proposals: strong popularity with the voters, and the ability to both raise money and to utilize his own funds. But until this election, Riordan had shown little ability to elect candidates of his choice to City offices.

In 1997, Riordan got the voters to create an elected Charter Reform Commission, but when he supported a slate of candidates for the Commission, most went down to defeat by labor-backed candidates. Riordan’s bid to gain control of the school board through endorsement and support of candidates seemed headed for the same fate several months ago. When Riordan’s allies announced that an informal group of education advisors to the Mayor were backing a Mayor’s slate of candidates for the school board, the advisors denied they had done any such thing. Yet after this unpromising beginning, Riordan made his endorsements stick in Tuesday’s election. Candidates backed by Riordan defeated two incumbent school board members. Genethia Hayes, endorsed by Riordan, forced incumbent Barbara Boudreaux into runoff, and David Tokovsky, also endorsed by Riordan, has apparently won a narrow re-election. Riordan has a shot at winning all four of the seats on this year’s ballot for the seven-member board.

In two City Council races for open seats, Riordan’s chosen candidates led the fields. In the 7th district, Alex Padilla, endorsed by Riordan. far outpaced the incumbent councilmember Richard Alarcon’s choice, Corinne Sanchez. In the 14th district, the wide open race to succeed Richard Alatorre was led by Nick Pacheco, also endorsed by Riordan. (Proposition 1, the Riordan-endorsed measure to issue bonds for police and fire, failed to win the required 2/3 vote, but did get over 60%.)

The difference between failure end success? In the school board races, Riordan made a sharply focused, coherent case against a school board that has been in hot water with the public for months. In endorsing the experienced and well-known Hayes, whom he did not recruit, Riordan was able to gain a measure of credibility in an African-American community where he has not been politically strong.

In city council races, Riordan concentrated his efforts on open seats rather than going after incumbents. In an era of term limits, there is little payoff in challenging incumbents when open seats are so predictably available. And, not surprisingly, most incumbent councilmembers had easy re-elections.

So will the winds of change continue to blow on through to the June 8th ballot? Will Charter reform pass? Will Riordan complete his sweep of the school board? Past June 8th, will Riordan be able to mobilize political support to keep the City together in the face of calls for secession?

Tough obstacles mark the path from April to June. Race is likely to emerge very forcefully in the runoff between Boudreaux and Hayes. Reform will be equated with outsider interference in the political affairs of the African-American community. Because of his support of Hayes, Riordan will undoubtedly be drawn into the debate in a community where he has not been widely trusted. A polarizing debate may make it more difficult for Riordan to keep the focus on the issues of school board and government performance.

Charter reform itself is a more complicated project than the simple rejection of the incumbent school board -- a stance that resonated well with voters on Tuesday. It will have stronger and more effective opponents than the Mayor faced in the school board battle. While the impressive array of Charter supporters suggests a campaign with broad appeal, the failure of the endorsement-laden Proposition 1 to win a two thirds majority is a reminder that even well-endorsed measures need an active and energetic campaign.

Even so, the prospects for reform in Los Angeles government look better today than they did before Tuesday’s election. Rather than going quietly into the new millennium with the status quo, Los Angeles voters may well be thinking of trying on some new governing clothes to wear for the new century.