Can GOP Seize the Day in Inland Empire?

San Bernardino boasts year-round sunshine, but that’s not why politicians from across the country are suddenly interested in the Inland Empire.

With the GOP controlling the House of Representatives by a mere five votes, Democrats and Republicans alike are gauging the political climate of the 42nd Congressional District, where a special election will be held next month to fill the unexpired term of the late Democratic Rep. George E. Brown Jr.

Brown, who first won the district in 1972, was a perennial GOP target who came within 1,000 votes of losing the seat in 1996 after triumphing in 1994 by about 2,600 votes. It had long been assumed that the district would offer a prime opportunity for Republicans once Brown’s name no longer was on the ballot.

Conventional wisdom, once again, appears headed for the ashcan.

“If you’re asking me, ‘Am I licking my chops?’ The answer is no. This is a tough district,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

While Democratic registration has held steady at about 52%, Republican registration has slipped to 33.8%, from 39.3% in 1992, according to Allan Hoffenblum, a GOP strategist who publishes the California Target Book, a political tip sheet. Republicans have been hurt by military base closures, he said, noting that military personnel have been replaced by more Democratic constituencies, such as Latinos.

Today, Latinos are 27% of the district’s registered voters. No California GOP congressman represents a district with a Latino voter registration that high, said Hoffenblum.

“This is not the seat that Linda Wilde lost by 996 votes,” he added, referring to Brown’s 1996 GOP foe.

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A clear sign of the renewed Democratic strength in the district can be gleaned from the 1998 election results.

Brown dramatically improved his showing, defeating Republican Elia Pirozzi by more than 16,000 votes (55% to 40%). In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Gray Davis trounced Republican Dan Lungren by 21 points. And in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer defeated Republican Matt Fong by 19 points.

Still, anything can happen in a special election, when voter turnout is traditionally low.

“Republicans have to catch a break,” said state Sen. Jim Brulte (R-Rancho Cucamonga), who was courted by national GOP leaders to run for the seat but chose to stay in Sacramento. “Our best hope is a bloody Democratic primary.”

That might happen.

Sen. Joe Baca (D-Rialto) has announced his candidacy for the seat, and Brown’s widow, Marta Macias Brown, is considering a bid.

“There is no love between the two camps,” Hoffenblum said. Marta Brown supporters have already begun raising as an issue Baca’s support from the National Rifle Assn.

Marta Brown, who worked in her late husband’s congressional office, would be seeking to follow California Reps. Mary Bono (R-Palm Springs) and Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara), who in recent years succeeded their late husbands in office.

“Given the success of widows, do the Republicans really contest the race feverishly and risk a public relations loss if they lose the seat?” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a nonpartisan, Washington-based political newsletter. “Or do they fail to compete in special elections when specials seem to favor them?”

Another possible Democratic candidate is Fontana Mayor David Eshleman.

Possible Republican candidates include Wilde, a San Bernardino County Superior Court judge; Pirozzi, a Rancho Cucamonga lawyer, and businessman Rob Guzman--all of whom previously ran for the seat--as well as Upland businessman John Corry, Rancho Cucamonga businessman Mike Morrell and Cliff Cummings, a San Bernardino car dealer and chairman of the county GOP committee. Libertarian John Ballard also has taken out nomination papers.

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Jack Pitney, associate professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, said that if Republicans sense an uphill battle, they will try to “lower expectations because they don’t want to turn this into another Lois Capps race where a Democratic victory became a psychological defeat for the Republicans nationwide.”

He was referring to the special election campaign in early 1998 in which Capps won her late husband’s Santa Barbara seat. The race drew big-name politicians, Hollywood celebrities and millions of dollars from outside interests to the district. Party registration was evenly split in that district.

The San Bernardino district has been a nationally important battleground in the past. Republicans brought in then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1996 and then-Vice President Dan Quayle in 1990 to campaign for Brown’s GOP opponents, while Democrats lined up actor-environmentalist Robert Redford and former astronaut Buzz Aldrin to support Brown in the 1990 race.

And both parties are eager to enhance their positions heading into next year’s elections when all 435 House seats will be contested.

“With the margin in the House only five seats, there’s going to be a big fight” in the 42nd District, said Erik Smith, communications director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The primary will be Sept. 21. Filing of candidate papers closes Aug. 9.