This Summer Will Weather Like Normal

Summertime, and the long-range forecast is easy: more of the same.

“This summer is not going to be a real exciting time, weather-wise, in Southern California,” predicted meteorologist Wes Etheredge on Monday, the official first day of summer.

Except for slightly lower than usual temperatures caused by the lingering effects of La Nina, the summer ahead should be a normal one, said Etheredge, who works for WeatherData, the company that provides weather information to The Times.

So far, he’s right. The high temperatures in the Valley on Monday were below average for the date. In Burbank, where the average high for June 21 is 84, the temperature topped out at 74. The average high for the day in Van Nuys is 90, but that area got to only 74, also.

Etheredge figured out the long- range forecast through complex computer modeling. The far less scientific “Old Farmer’s Almanac,” now in its 207th annual edition, disagreed with his findings, but only a bit. The almanac is calling for slightly higher temperatures than usual this summer along the coast.

But both the high-tech and folksy forecasters concurred--nothing too out of the ordinary for the months ahead for the Southland (they can’t project long-range forecasts for an area as small as the Valley).

“You will get the usual morning low clouds that usually burn off by 10 a.m.,” said Etheredge. “Then hazy sunshine.”

The unusually late spring showers we had this year were not an indication we are in for more of the same in the next few weeks.

“That rain was an anomaly in the weather pattern,” he said. “There probably won’t be any more rain until at least late in the summer.”

“As usual, there will be a persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure anchored over much of the West Coast during the summer,” Etheredge said. “That gives you the warm temperatures.”

That ridge will be affected only subtly by La Nina atmospheric conditions brought about by colder than normal Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of South America.

“La Nina tends to weaken the ridge, but just a little,” he explained. “That’s why temperatures will be below normal over the course of the summer, but only by three or four degrees.”

The far more dramatic El Nino condition, caused by warmer than usual Pacific waters, tends to have a much greater effect on weather. “El Nino changes weather conditions,” Etheredge said. “La Nina tends to just affect what is already there.”

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The “Old Farmer’s Almanac,” which used to be the weather bible for farmers and is still beloved for its folk wisdom (about 4.4 million copies are distributed annually), primarily bases its long-range predictions on solar activity.

“We’re deeply in a solar cycle that started out incredibly active, with solar flares, sunspots and giant magnetic storms,” said publisher John Pierce, speaking from the almanac’s offices in New Hampshire. He believes that heavy solar activity results in a prevalence of dramatic weather--”sudden violent storms, floods and droughts.”

But the sun is relatively quiet at the moment. “The activity has tapered off,” Pierce said. “So, we predict the summer will not hold many surprises.”