Networks Face a Prime-Time Viewer Plunge

Prime-time viewing of the major TV networks sank by roughly 3.3 million people on an average night during the season that concluded Wednesday, with CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox continuing their steady decline as cable, new networks and the Internet keep nipping at their heels.

While overall tune-in for those four networks dropped 6%, NBC by far took the steepest plunge, unable to fully weather the absence of “Seinfeld” and NFL football. For the broadcast season that runs from September into May, NBC’s audience shrank by 14% compared to a year ago. The network thus relinquished its crown as prime time’s most-watched network, ending a three-year reign and marking CBS’ first trip to the victory circle since 1994.

Beyond bragging rights, however, CBS’ victory provides few tangible benefits. The network, which traditionally attracts an older audience, remains fourth in the broad demographic of adults age 18 to 54, the primary yardstick advertisers employ when negotiating media buys. The bottom-line consequences of that status are significant, demonstrated by the $900 million sales edge NBC (still first within that age bracket) held over CBS before the season began.

Having agreed to pay $4 billion in 1998 to snare NBC’s former pro football contract, CBS did make notable strides with programs like “JAG” and “Everybody Loves Raymond,” attributing some of its increased viewing among men to promotion that runs during football telecasts. The network’s audience nevertheless diminished compared to last season, when CBS’ performance received a boost from the Winter Olympics--one of those rare spectacles that lure millions of viewers back to network TV.

NBC also garnered some redemption by winning the May rating sweeps, a key period for TV stations, which use results from four-week surveys in November, February and May to determine local advertising rates. Of primary importance to network affiliates, NBC easily topped the competition from 10:30 to 11 p.m., the half-hour leading directly into late local newscasts, which account for a disproportionate share of station revenues.

CBS averaged 13.1 million viewers in prime time for the entire 1998-99 season, versus 12.7 million people watching NBC, 11.8 million for ABC and 10.6 million tuning in Fox.

Fox was the only major network to exceed its total from a year ago, thanks in part to televising the Super Bowl and World Series, major sporting events that played on NBC during the 1997-98 campaign.

“Having those properties let us get a lot of business done, [including] launching ‘Family Guy’ after the Super Bowl,” said Fox senior vice president of research and marketing Giles Lundberg, referring to the animated comedy the network will schedule opposite NBC’s “Frasier” come September.

The WB network bucked the erosion trend as well, improving slightly to 4.5 million viewers and finishing just behind Fox in terms of loyalty among teenagers, thanks to series such as “7th Heaven” and “Dawson’s Creek.”

By contrast, the other fledgling network, UPN, saw its programming strategy badly misfire, sacrificing nearly a third of its audience in slipping to 2.7 million viewers. Revising its course again, UPN will cater to young men next season with a program roster that includes a two-hour wrestling show, a commodity that has generated record ratings for cable channels USA and TBS.

An Influx of New Cable Channels

Cable in general enjoyed another banner year, with ratings for basic cable rising 11%. Much of that stems from the influx of new channels, with some better-established networks getting a taste of what broadcasters face, trying to simply hold onto viewers as new players take the field.

Though clearly down, NBC isn’t out. Its “Must See TV” Thursday lineup experienced considerable shrinkage with “Frasier” seeking to fill “Seinfeld’s” shoes, but it remains the most powerful franchise on television. It’s also worth noting that the lion’s share of popular shows saw their ratings ebb versus a year ago.

Indeed, with cable and the Internet vying for attention, ratings erosion has become such an inexorable fact that ABC officials actually proclaimed the network had “momentum” in May because its viewing fell off less than other broadcasters.

Yet even with their share of the prime-time audience sliding to record lows, the news isn’t all dire for the major networks. Despite the average viewer now receiving four dozen channels, those four still reach more than 48 million people on an average night, providing an unparalleled venue for national advertisers. That dynamic has helped the networks defy gravity, with ad rates climbing as ratings dwindle.

“As much as the fragmentation is going on, it points out ever more clearly that network TV is the best game in town,” said CBS Television President Leslie Moonves, who insisted his network’s approach of targeting viewers 35 and older is the wisest course given the other networks’ lock-step pursuit of youth.

The Networks Remain Optimistic

Even with a smaller share of audience the networks maintain they can prosper, citing population growth as one of the factors. Nielsen Media Research currently estimates the pool of U.S. TV viewers 18 and older at 195 million, projecting that figure will exceed 215 million by 2010.

“While the [network] percentage of the pie is dropping, absolute delivery is going up,” noted NBC President Scott Sassa, who called the loss of market share “pure mathematics” based on the explosion of leisure-time choices. Sassa pointed out “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno,” for example, is seen by more viewers today than it was during Johnny Carson’s heyday.

With the network audience declining, what qualifies as a success has changed considerably. As a result, the survival rate for new series this season surpassed that of recent years.

Ten of the 36 programs rolled out in September will come back in the fall, up from only six the year before. The survivors are NBC’s “Jesse” and “Will & Grace,” CBS’ “King of Queens” and “Martial Law,” ABC’s “Sports Night” and “The Hughleys,” Fox’s “That ‘70s Show,” the WB’s “Felicity” and “Charmed,” and UPN’s “Seven Days.”

Another half-dozen series that premiered later in the season, among them ABC’s “The Norm Show” and Fox’s “Futurama,” will also return. The most clear-cut hit this season was “Providence,” an NBC drama introduced in January that delivered impressive ratings airing on Friday--the night offering the smallest available audience, as more adults engage in outside-the-home activities. “Becker,” CBS’ second stab at building a comedy around Ted Danson, also exhibited promise, after the network struck out three years ago with “Ink.”

QUANTUM LEAP: KMEX posts 52% gain in prime-time audience. F27

KTTV noses out KTLA in ratings for late news programs. F27

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The Top 20 Series of the 1998-99 TV Season

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VIEWERS % CHANGE SHOW NETWORK (in millions) (vs. 1997-98) 1. “ER” NBC 25.4 -16% 2. “Friends” NBC 23.5 -2 3. “Frasier” NBC 22.5 +34* 4. “Jesse” NBC 20.1 N/A 5. “Monday Night Football” ABC 19.6 -7 6. “Touched by an Angel” CBS 19.5 -11 7. “Veronica’s Closet” NBC 19.3 -21 8. “60 Minutes” CBS 18.7 -5 9. “CBS Sunday Movie” CBS 17.3 -11 10. “Home Improvement” ABC 16.5 -11 11. “Everybody Loves Raymond” CBS 15.5 +15 12. “20/20” (Wed.) ABC 15.3 +7 13. “The X-Files” Fox 15.3 -11 14. “Drew Carey Show” ABC 14.8 -11 15. “NYPD Blue” ABC 14.6 -2 16. “Walker, Texas Ranger” CBS 14.4 0 17. “JAG” CBS 14.2 +13 18. “Law & Order” NBC 14.0 -1 19. “Providence” NBC 13.9 N/A 20. “Becker” CBS 13.9 N/A

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* Changed nights N/A: Not applicable

Source: Nielsen Media Research