ORANGE COUNTY PERSPECTIVE : Toll Road Miscalculations

New federal census data show dramatic increases in population during this decade for southern Orange County, especially in Lake Forest, Irvine and Mission Viejo. Yet officials of the county’s toll roads now acknowledge that they badly overestimated economic growth, which did not keep up with population growth.

In an attempt to refinance about $1.6 billion in bonds on two toll roads, the Foothill and the Eastern, the Transportation Corridor Agencies said traffic on the roads is more than 20% below original projections. Worse, revenue from the road for the next 35 years now is expected to be more than 40% below original estimates. That’s a miscalculation bigger than a 20-lane freeway.

State officials say the recession early in the 1990s slowed growth in the Inland Empire. The original scenario had Riverside and San Bernardino counties growing so much that the roads between there and Orange County would be clogged and drivers would flee to toll roads for relief. Another toll road, the San Joaquin Hills, also is serving far fewer drivers than originally expected.

The agencies’ dilemma is clear from the fact that while it is advertising to get more riders, it is considering increasing the tolls for peak travel times, which could decrease traffic during those hours. In another attempt to raise revenue, the transponders that register a car’s movement through toll booths and automatically deduct the proper amount from a driver’s account with the agencies no longer are free, but cost $1 if a driver spends less than $25 a month in tolls.

That has prompted more than 1,000 drivers to return transponders. Not a big number compared with the 140,000 who have hung on to the devices, but still an indication of an unpopular move by the agencies. These economic miscalculations make it imperative that there be no rush to pour pavement for yet another toll road, known as the Foothill South.

The proposed alignment for that 16-mile road would take it through San Onofre State Beach, land that is part of Camp Pendleton but is leased to the state. Backers of the road contend it is necessary to relieve congestion on Interstate 5. Even if all projections and estimates of toll road traffic and revenues were correct, that particular route would raise questions. Given the missed projection of the agencies on traffic use and revenue from the Foothill and Eastern, TCA has to be certain that its arguments for another road are bulletproof. Maybe the backers of the toll road are correct, but they will need to present convincing evidence.

One major problem is using state park land for the road. San Onofre, just over the line in San Diego County, is one of the most popular state parks, especially with Orange County visitors. It includes the popular surfing spot known as Trestles.

South County has been the scene of enormous development since the 1960s, even with the economic downturn of the early 1990s. Parks rank high on newcomers’ lists of priorities. Even if the road is built, every effort should be made to spare the park and find a less damaging route.

Last month, a federal judge issued an order that put another roadblock in front of the Foothill South, at least temporarily. U.S. District Judge Stephen Wilson ruled that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service by early next month must begin identifying “critical habitat” across Southern California for the California gnatcatcher. Among the possible areas for the bird: the Foothill South.

Wilson’s order came after another judge ordered the Fish and Wildlife Service to set aside parts of several creeks for an endangered fish, the tidewater goby. Two of the creeks are under the proposed toll road route.

An agencies spokeswoman said the decisions would not cause insuperable problems. But they should serve as a reminder to the agencies that protecting the environment and getting a better handle on traffic projections are critical elements in transportation planning.