Backbreakers

The Lakers are back on top, tra la, tra la, what could go wrong now?

Don’t ask.

As a look at their recent history shows, the answer is: Just about anything. This isn’t the first time they’ve looked good in the spring.

In 1997, with newly acquired Shaquille O’Neal having missed 31 games, they still won 56, finished fourth in the West and eliminated the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round, 3-1.

Then, just as they were really starting to feel good about themselves, they lost, 4-1, to the supposedly broken-down Utah Jazz. Point guard Nick Van Exel feuded with then-coach Del Harris, who wound up giving game-situation shots to 18-year-old rookie Kobe Bryant, who brought the curtain down with four airballs.

Everyone was upset. Would they have felt better or worse if they’d known the next two times they would be eliminated, they wouldn’t even win one game of the series?

In 1997-98, O’Neal missed 22 games but the Lakers won 61, tying for second in the West.

They eliminated the Trail Blazers in the first round, 3-1, then did a massive destructo on a Seattle team, which had also won 61, stunning the SuperSonics, 4-1.

By now, everyone seemed past merely feeling good and was giddy. The bandwagon started filling up with stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, whom Harris called Leo.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, they started the Western Conference finals with a 35-point loss at Salt Lake City and crumbled in a 4-0 sweep.

This time, Van Exel, who was out because of an injury and, upon returning declined to take his place in the starting lineup, got O’Neal angry, too, with a joke about going to Cancun before Game 4. O’Neal didn’t think it was funny. Van Exel was ultimately exiled to the salt mines of Denver.

Then in 1999--can it be only a year ago?--the Lakers turned to (drumbeat) Dennis Rodman for salvation.

Of course, Rodman had come and gone by the time the playoffs started. Also departed were Harris, who was fired, and Eddie Jones and Elden Campbell, sent to Charlotte in a controversial trade for Glen Rice.

Seeming to regain their postseason footing, the Lakers, now Shaq and Kobe’s team, polished off the Charles Barkley-Scottie Pippen-Hakeem Olajuwon Houston Rockets in a 3-1 first-round series.

Then, just as everyone began climbing aboard again, the Lakers were swept again, this time by the San Antonio Spurs.

In Game 1, San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich played Hack-a-Shaq, holding O’Neal to 21 points in an 87-81 victory, after which O’Neal chased down the referees leaving the floor and wiped out a TV and VCR in the dressing room.

In Game 2, then-coach Kurt Rambis neglected to tell his players to take a foul and Rice failed to double-team Tim Duncan, who hit the game-winning jump hook over J.R. Reid. After that, the Lakers offered scant resistance in their now-traditional pre-vacation swoon.

Of course, things look different now.

Except for O’Neal, 28, and Bryant, 21, the Lakers aren’t so young anymore, with veterans like Ron Harper, 36, A.C. Green, 36, and Brian Shaw, 34, in the rotation, to say nothing of John Salley, 35, who was out of the game and working in TV for two years.

Under Phil Jackson, the Lakers are quieter and more businesslike. Gone are the days when their young guys crowed about how much more talented they were than the Jazz, after which the Jazz walked on them, until “talent” became a dirty word in the Laker organization.

Not that it looks as if they’re primed for a relapse, but for the Lakers in the Jackson era, the clock starts now.

“They’re playing exactly the way we did at this time last year,” says San Antonio’s Popovich, whose Spurs finished 31-5 last season before going 15-2 in the playoffs and winning their title.

“What that means is: A, they predicate their game on defense. They make stops down the stretch in games. B, they execute offensively down the stretch. They know who’s going to do what, when and how. And C, they don’t turn it over down the stretch in games. They’ve got great confidence, which breeds consistency, it breeds trust and it breeds many, many wins. That’s what they’re doing. It’s a credit to them and their coaches. . . .

“If they’re not going to listen to [Jackson], they’re not going to listen to anybody. But he made them believe that all these basic fundamental things, done on a daily basis, are going to add up.

“And they bought in and they know it’s true now. So they’re going to be a force now for a whole lot of years, ‘cause there’s some young guys over there.”

Not as many as there used to be, maybe, but, the Lakers hope, enough to do the job.

The Opposition

The Lakers’ stiffest opposition figures to come in the West, where six of the eight qualifiers won at least 50 games and seven had winning road records, as opposed to the East, where three won 50 or more and none had a winning road record.

Their first-round series against Sacramento may be a test--although a team intending to win a title shouldn’t be quaking about playing the No. 8 qualifier--and then it would presumably get more difficult. They could face the Spurs, who start two 7-footers, if slender ones, to their one, in the second round, and the big, deep and sure-to-be-motivated- by-then Trail Blazers in the Western finals.

Meanwhile in the East, just about anybody could knock just about any other team off at any point.

Indiana, the East’s best, was only No. 12 on defense and was out-rebounded by more than one a game.

Miami struggles to score and Tim Hardaway, in and out all season and a shadow of himself, was hurt again last week. The Heat opens against the No. 7 Detroit Pistons, who play 6-10 long-range bomber Terry Mills in lieu of a center, and may even have problems with them.

“The Pistons are defending a lot better,” says a scout. “They have no one to defend Alonzo Mourning but it’s been proven, if you hold Zo down a little, you can beat Miami.”

The New York Knicks went down the stretch yawning, angering Coach Jeff Van Gundy, whose job prospects will soon be appearing daily in tabloid headlines. In the first round, they’ll get No. 6 Toronto, which won their season series, 3-1, and has Vince Carter looking to make a name for himself.

The scout ranks the Nos. 4-5 matchup between Philadelphia and Charlotte as one of the best, since both have size and made late-season runs.

“Derrick Coleman played great all season and I never thought I’d say that,” the scout notes. “I like Philadelphia a lot. They play great defense and they score off their defense. Then when things slow down, Larry Brown gives it to the kid [Allen Iverson] or creates a mismatch with Toni Kukoc.”

In other words, the Eastern picture may not take shape for a few weeks (months?), but someone has to make it through.

This time, the Lakers are hoping to be there to greet them.

A look at each series:

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Seeds of Success

How seeded teams have fared in playoff series since the NBA playoffs began using the current format (1983-84):

*--*

Seed 1st Round Semis Conf. Finals NBA Finals Total No. 1 30-2 28-2 23-5 13-10 94-19 No. 2 28-4 14-14 5-9 2-3 49-30 No. 3 23-9 14-9 2-12 0-2 39-32 No. 4 14-18 0-14 0-0 0-0 0-0 No. 5 18-14 3-15 0-3 0-0 0-0 No. 6 9-23 3-6 1-2 1-0 14-31 No. 7 4-28 1-3 0-1 0-0 5-32 No. 8 2-30 1-1 1-0 0-1 4-32

*--*

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 LAKERS (67-15) vs. No. 8 SACRAMENTO (44-38)

* Season series: Lakers, 3-1.

* Offense: Lakers 100.8 (6), Sacramento 105.0 (1).

* Defense: Lakers 92.3 (6), Sacramento 102.0 (27).

It’s true, Chris Webber averaged 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists against the Lakers’ old or slender power forwards, and the Kings do have superior size, speed and athleticism. Of course, the Kings play no defense and have a matchup problem or two, also. Shaquille O’Neal averaged 35.3 points against them and shot 56.7%. Kobe Bryant averaged 30.5 points and shot 56.6%. Sacramento Coach Rick Adelman will try to turn it into a track meet and wear the Lakers down with numbers, but Phil Jackson didn’t win his fourth, fifth and sixth titles by letting anyone make his aging Chicago Bulls run up and down. The Lakers can’t play poorly and defeat these guys--which they may have been able to do against the Seattle SuperSonic smurfs--but they’re still the better team.

* Schedule: Sunday--at Lakers, 2:30 p.m.; Thursday--at Lakers, 7:30 p.m.; April 30--at Sacramento, 2:30 p.m.; May 2--*at Sacramento, TBA; May 5--*at Lakers, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: Lakers, 3-1. If the Kings are so scary, the Lakers better not even think about what’s next.

No. 2 UTAH (55-27) vs. No. 7 SEATTLE (45-37)

* Season series: Tied, 2-2.

* Offense: Utah 96.5 (20), Seattle 99.1 (10).

* Defense: Utah 92.0 (5), Seattle 98.1 (14).

After last spring’s close call in the first round and fast elimination in the second, everyone decided the Jazz’s old gentlemen finally were too old, but here they are again. Nevertheless, the end of this season reminded some of the end of last season, when Utah finished 5-5. This season, it finished 6-5. The SuperSonics were a mess, going 4-10 before winning at Sacramento last week. Led in everything by Gary Payton, they’re small but feisty, sort of a shorter, tougher version of the Kings, who nearly upended Utah last spring. The Seattle key will be Vin Baker, who has lost his starting job and admitted to being counseled for depression. He’s the one who’ll have to contain Karl Malone, if the SuperSonics are to have a chance.

* Schedule: Today--at Utah, 2:30 p.m.; Monday--at Utah, 7:30 p.m.; April 29--at Seattle, 2:30 p.m.; May 3--*at Seattle, TBA; May 5--*at Utah, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: Seattle, 3-2. Chalk one up for psychiatry.

No. 3 PORTLAND (59-23) vs. No. 6 MINNESOTA (50-32)

* Season series: Tied, 2-2.

* Offense: Portland 97.5 (16), Minnesota 98.5 (13).

* Defense: Portland 91.0 (3), Minnesota 96.0 (11).

The Timberwolves had an amazing season, winning 50 games for the first time with a front line that looked more like three small forwards. They had an even more amazing finish, going 43-19 after a 7-13 start. Only the Lakers were better over the same period of time. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, stumbled to the wire, finishing 14-11 after the Lakers turned their season around in that Feb. 29 meeting in the Rose Garden. Whatever momentum counts for, the Timberwolves have it. Matchups count as much or more, however, and the Trail Blazers, who are much bigger and deeper, have Rasheed Wallace, who’s always at his best against the players he sees as his main rivals--Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan. If Wallace neutralizes Garnett, Minnesota will be done.

* Schedule: Sunday--at Portland, noon; Wednesday--at Portland, 7:30 p.m.; April 30--at Minnesota, noon; May 2--*at Minnesota, TBA; May 4--*at Portland, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: Portland, 3-1, assuming Wallace doesn’t get tossed out of too many games.

No. 4 SAN ANTONIO (53-29) vs. No. 5 PHOENIX (53-29)

Season series: Tied, 2-2.

* Offense: San Antonio 96.2 (21), Phoenix 98.9 (12).

* Defense: San Antonio 90.2 (1), Phoenix 93.7 (8).

Some great matchup this turned out to be. Jason Kidd is out for Phoenix. Tim Duncan’s status is unknown while the small cartilage tear in his left knee is evaluated. Of course, the Spurs still have one tower, David Robinson, left in the middle. The Suns have . . . Luc Longley. The Suns’ game is to run and open it up, but they’re not as good at it without Kidd, who presumably is out for the season. They were 44-23 with him but finished only 9-6 without him. They thought they’d at least have home-court advantage in this series but lost a home game to the Houston Rockets last week. That suggests they’re not good enough to pull off this upset, whether they’re facing one tower or both.

* Schedule: Today--at San Antonio, noon; Tuesday--at San Antonio, 6:30 p.m.; April 29--at Phoenix, noon; May 2--*at Phoenix, TBA; May 4--*at San Antonio, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: San Antonio, 3-1.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 INDIANA (56-26) vs. No. 8 MILWAUKEE 42-40)

* Season series: Tied 2-2.

* Offense: Indiana 101.3 (4), Milwaukee 101.2 (5).

* Defense: Indiana 96.7 (12), Milwaukee 101.0 (23).

It has been a strange season in Indiana, where yet-to-be re-signed Mark Jackson and Reggie Miller are so angry at team President Donnie Walsh for trading Antonio Davis and starting to rebuild while they’re still there, Walsh admitted he felt “estranged” all season. The strange part is that they stayed atop the East, making them a slight overall favorite in the East but a solid one against this small fry. The Bucks had a horrific season but rallied from two games behind in the last week to overhaul Orlando’s no-names. Coach George Karl has been running his mouth on everyone who crosses his path. He’s actually mad at his non-defending big three--Glenn Robinson, Ray Allen and Sam Cassell--all of whom may be on the market when the Pacers finish with them.

* Schedule: Sunday--at Indiana, 5:30 p.m.; Thursday--at Indiana, 5 p.m.; April 29--at Milwaukee, 5:30 p.m.; May 1--*at Milwaukee, TBA; May 4--*at Indiana, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: Indiana, 3-1.

No. 4 CHARLOTTE (49-33) vs. No. 5 PHILADELPHIA (49-33)

* Season series: Charlotte, 3-1.

* Offense: Charlotte 98.4 (14), Philadelphia 94.8 (23).

* Defense: Charlotte 95.8 (10), Philadelphia 93.4 (7).

Larry Brown’s friends have been waiting for him to orchestrate one of his patented late-season drives since he got a contract extension . . . but they’re still waiting. The 76ers would have been hosting this series, except for a home loss last week to Indiana, which was resting Mark Jackson and Reggie Miller. Also, Brown’s star, Allen Iverson, isn’t looking too happy about keeping his coach. The Hornets are big and talented with Eddie Jones, coming off his best season, malcontent Anthony Mason and back-from-a-decade’s-nap Derrick Coleman. However, Laker fans will recognize the problem when a scouts says, “It all depends on Elden Campbell.”

* Schedule: Today--at Charlotte, 5:30 p.m.; Monday--at Charlotte, 5 p.m. Friday--at Philadelphia, 5 p.m.; May 1--*at Philadelphia, TBA; May 4--*at Charlotte, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: Charlotte, 3-2. The 76ers’ problems outweigh the Hornets’ problems, which will have to wait to resurface in the second round.

No. 3 NEW YORK (50-32) vs. No. 6 TORONTO (45-37)

* Season series: Toronto, 3-1.

* Offense: New York 92.1 (27), Toronto 97.2 (17).

* Defense: New York 90.7 (2), Toronto 97.3 (13).

Instead of playing mirror opposite and annual playoff pigeon Miami, New York gets the young Raptors, who are more like the athletic Bull teams that used to frustrate the clumsy Knicks. The Raptors averaged 15 more points in their four meetings, while Vince Carter, who has an eye for the spotlight and big games, averaged 33 and shot 60.3%. An East scout says Tracy McGrady is now “like Scottie Pippen, but better.” Of course, this is their first time in the playoffs under wrapped-awfully-tight Coach Butch Carter. Knick Coach Jeff Van Gundy calls this is his “biggest first-round challenge.” Of course, as usual, if he loses it, he may not survive it.

* Schedule: Sunday--at New York, 9:30 a.m.; Wednesday--at New York, 5 p.m.; April 30--at Toronto, 9:30 a.m.; May 2--*at Toronto, TBA; May 5--*at New York, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: New York, 3-2. The Knicks have home-court advantage and know the drill. That’s what it’s all about in the playoffs.

No. 2 MIAMI (52-30) vs. No. 7 DETROIT (42-40)

* Season series: 2-2.

* Offense: Miami 94.4 (24), Detroit 103.5 (2).

* Defense: Miami 91.3 (4), Detroit 102.0 (26).

It actually was a feat for Pat Riley to win so many games with little more than Alonzo Mourning. Riley almost traded his No. 2 scorer, Jamal Mashburn, and has said nothing yet about bringing back free agent/injury-plagued Tim Hardaway, once his team’s beating heart. Hardaway, sidelined intermittently because of foot injuries, is expected to play but isn’t near 100%, and he wasn’t doing too well when he was feeling better than he is now. The Pistons are the kind of team that gives Miami trouble, using the athleticism of Grant Hill and Jerry Stackhouse to open up the game. But they’re not on any roll, either, losers of five of their last seven.

* Schedule: Today--at Miami, 9:30 a.m.; Tuesday--at Miami, 4 p.m.; April 29--at Detroit, 9:30 a.m.; May 3--*at Detroit, TBA; May 5--*at Miami, TBA. (* if necessary)

* Prediction: Miami, 3-2. As long as the Heat can still go bump in the night, Riley will see to it the Pistons don’t open up anything.