Finally, We Get a Primary That May Actually Matter

So California gets to play after all. Its votes in the Super Tuesday “national primary” March 7 will count for something. Charlie Brown gets to kick the football.

Some weeny state didn’t yank the ball away from our foot, as usually happens.

But how far California Republicans can kick that ball--how much their votes will count in selecting the party’s presidential nominee--will depend largely on what South Carolina does Feb. 19.

If South Carolina gives maverick Sen. John McCain another boost, rocketing him off to the other pre-March 7 contests with even more momentum, the Arizonan could seriously challenge Texas Gov. George W. Bush in California.

Then California would count for a whole lot. This GOP primary is winner-take-all, with the victor capturing 16% of the national convention delegates needed to nominate a president.

But McCain probably must win South Carolina, where he’s gaining but still a longshot. Donors need to believe he can go the distance before they’ll stake him to enough money to compete in California, where one week of TV ads can cost $1.5 million.

“We’ve got money for everything up to California,” says McCain strategist Ken Khachigian, a veteran of both California and national politics. How much do they have stashed? “We basically eat what we kill,” he says, estimating that McCain’s landslide victory in New Hampshire will quickly generate “a couple of million” in badly needed cash.

“There’s no question California’s relevant. We’ve got to win there.”

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It’s a different story for Democrats. For them, California is guaranteed to be significant, but not as significant as it potentially could be for Republicans.

Democrats offer more delegates--20% of those needed to nominate--but their contest is not winner-take-all. Delegates are allocated based on a candidate’s vote percentage in each congressional district. The system is set up to reward each major contender. So Vice President Al Gore and underdog Bill Bradley both should haul off a pile of delegates from California.

March 7 really amounts to a national primary for Democrats. They’ll hold 15 state contests that day--from New York to California, from Georgia to Hawaii. “This will be the red-eye campaign,” notes L.A.-based Democratic consultant Bill Carrick.

For Democrats, it could be the first interesting California primary since 1980, when Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts beat President Jimmy Carter. There hasn’t been a truly meaningful primary since 1972, when Sen. George S. McGovern sewed up the Democratic nomination here. Republicans have to go back 36 years--to the late Sen. Barry Goldwater’s 1964 victory--to find a meaningful California primary.

Both parties’ nominations could be decided March 7 if front-runners Bush and Gore triumph. This time, California will be just one of many players. But that’s better than being a spectator, as we’ve been the last several elections.

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The latest California polls don’t offer much hope for the underdogs. True, the surveys are outdated now by New Hampshire repercussions. But the front-runners looked almost uncatchable here in January--Bush ahead by roughly 4 to 1 and Gore by 2 to 1.

Bradley was running best in the liberal, affluent San Francisco Bay Area. But even there, he trailed Gore by 16 points among Democratic voters, according to a poll by Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California.

Both Bradley and McCain are delivering populist messages attacking the political establishment. But among Democrats who “only sometimes trust the government in Washington to do what is right,” Gore had a 19-point lead. Similarly, such Republicans favored Bush by 45 points.

“Bradley and McCain both have a big mountain to climb in California,” the pollster says.

Bradley’s climb seems the steepest. His core message is anti-Clinton/Gore, but the president always has been highly popular among California Democrats. They’ve been known to rally behind an insurgent--a Kennedy, a McGovern--but professorial Bradley may be the wrong candidate in an upbeat era. Plus Gov. Gray Davis’ political operation is helping Gore.

McCain, however, has a crisper message. Californians, it should be noted, always vote for campaign finance reform. The Arizonan is talking about “a great national crusade,” which may have a Reaganesque ring in California. He’s not only a war hero, but a political hero, playing a pauper David against a megabucks Goliath.

All this has yet to play out. “Nobody pays attention until the circus comes to town,” Carrick says.

We’re just now beginning to see the clowns.