McCain’s Support Not the Right Stuff in State Primary

For the sake of speculation, assume that Sen. John McCain wins the pivotal South Carolina primary next Saturday. And assume that this propels him to victory three days later in crucial Michigan.

Both battles are close, but assume that outgunned McCain does survive the fierce gantlet of attack ads by Gov. George W. Bush and the vitriol of the Republican establishment and frightened special interests. He scrambles to the California primary March 7 with his precarious presidential candidacy not only still alive, but gaining strength.

Then he’s really up against it. And that’s not just an assumption, it’s an assurance.

First, there’s the money. To win in California normally requires saturation TV ads, which can cost up to $1.5 million per week. McCain has raised about $4.5 million since his stunning landslide win in New Hampshire, one advisor says. But he’s still a pauper compared to Bush, who has taken in roughly $70 million all told.

“Until recently,” says McCain spokesman Dan Schnur, “our strategy was New Hampshire, South Carolina, then rob a bank.”

But money isn’t McCain’s biggest problem in California. Message can counter money and money can be generated by momentum. His bigger dilemma is vividly illustrated by a new poll about to be released by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The survey, directed by pollster Mark Baldassare, shows that only half of McCain’s supporters in California are Republicans. The rest are Democrats and independents (Republicans 53%, Democrats 27%, “others” 20%). By contrast, Bush’s support base is three-fourths Republican.

The vital significance is that California--unlike New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan--allows only party members to decide who controls the state’s delegations to national conventions. For Republicans, it’s a winner-take-all primary and one candidate will win all 162 delegates, 16% of those needed for the nomination.

The Legislature last year passed that “closed” primary clause under pressure from the Republican and Democratic parties--thus ignoring California voters who had decreed they wanted a completely “open” primary.

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Sure, there’ll be an open primary March 7. Californians can vote for any candidate, regardless of party. But the presidential open primary amounts merely to a nonbinding “beauty contest.” Only the closed contest really counts.

That’s why McCain’s campaign was hustling to get its Democratic and independent supporters to re-register as Republicans before last Monday’s deadline. The results aren’t in, but the secretary of state’s office reports higher than normal registration activity. And, at least in Los Angeles and Sacramento, many people said they were registering to vote for McCain.

Baldassare’s poll shows a tightening GOP race in the open primary: Bush 24%, McCain 17%. Also in this mix: Vice President Al Gore 29%, Bill Bradley 10%. In the last month, McCain has cut Bush’s lead from 20 points to seven. Gore has widened his from 14 points to 19.

McCain also has chopped Bush’s lead by half in the all-important closed contest. But he still trails by 22 points, 46% to 24%. Among Democrats, Gore leads 52% to 15%--a 10 point widening of the gap since beating Bradley in Iowa and New Hampshire.

McCain and Bradley both are running insurgency campaigns against establishment-backed front-runners. Says Garry South, a Gore California advisor and chief political strategist for Gov. Gray Davis: “When McCain got hot, there wasn’t enough oxygen in the room for two insurgency candidates.”

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McCain can’t be satisfied with just winning a “beauty contest.” True, this would show the GOP establishment that he’s the best candidate for November in a state offering one-fifth of the electoral votes needed to capture the presidency. But he needs California’s delegates to win the nomination.

That’s why he began running a California TV ad Friday, a biographical spot emphasizing his war hero background. A Baldassare poll in December found that Republicans are much more apt than Democrats to judge a candidate by his character.

“Two things have to happen for McCain to be competitive in California,” says Allan Hoffenblum, a veteran L.A.-based GOP consultant not involved in either presidential campaign.

“Republicans have to believe that he, in fact, can win. Party mainliners badly want a Republican in the White House. Secondly, the news media has to perceive he has a chance so it will continue to give him heavy coverage. That helps counter Bush’s huge money advantage.”

But first, those assumptions about South Carolina and Michigan have to pan out.