El Toro Airport Opponents Take Lead in Survey

For the first time in four years, support for an international airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station has eroded, according to a new poll, raising questions about the outcome of one of the most controversial land-use debates in Orange County history.

The poll, commissioned by The Times’ Orange County edition, found that most county voters--52%--now oppose a new airport at the former Marine base. In a similar poll in February 1999, 42% opposed the airport.

The poll results come just three weeks before voters decide the fate of a key anti-airport ballot measure, Measure F.

The outcome of that measure also is far from conclusive, according to the poll. Overall, 56% of likely voters said they support the anti-airport measure, with 18% opposed. However, a sizable portion of the electorate--26%--remain undecided about Measure F, which requires a simple majority to pass.

The poll findings set the stage for an all-out battle by both sides of the airport issue as the March 7 election approaches.

“The airport has lost its luster,” said Cheryl Katz of Baldassare Associates, which conducted the poll of 800 voters, including 512 likely voters, between Feb. 9 and 13. “The Measure F campaign is focusing people on the shortcomings of the airport.”

Monday, airport backers conceded that the anti-airport effort had gained some ground--in part, they said, because of a heavy marketing campaign. But, airport proponents said, the fight is far from over.

“Misinformation eventually takes its toll, but I don’t believe for a moment that it’s a hopeless cause,” said Bruce Nestande, chairman of the pro-airport Citizens for Jobs and the Economy. “Given the amount of money that has been spent [against the airport], that they haven’t put it out of reach is significant.”

The biggest--and perhaps most surprising--swing in airport sentiment occurred in North County, where support for the proposed airport has traditionally been strongest.

The poll suggests that many

voters there are less convinced than ever about the need for the airport. And that uncertainty raises doubts about how they will vote on Measure F.

The measure would effectively halt airport planning. If passed, it would require approval by two-thirds of voters before the county could build new airports, large jails and hazardous-waste landfills near homes.

Measure F has been promoted primarily by South County residents, aided by upward of $10 million in anti-airport messages financed by South County cities. The cities cannot by law advocate a position on Measure F, but through cable-TV advertisements and direct mail have pushed a non-aviation alternative for the former Marine base.

Some observers credit the apparent shift in airport opinions to a campaign begun months ago by airport opponents, who have been stressing home safety, traffic and pollution concerns.

The latest poll findings underscore just how conflicted Orange County voters are when it comes to the proposed airport at El Toro.

Voters have twice endorsed the proposed airport, and the March ballot initiative marks the third time opponents will try to stop the project.

The current ballot measure only complicates matters further. A “yes” vote on Measure F is a “no” vote for the airport. Conversely, a “no” vote on Measure F means airport planning will continue uninterrupted.

Voters were more inclined to oppose the measure when they realized it would stop the airport, the poll found. Opposition to Measure F rose to 30% among likely voters when this was made apparent.

Some observers said the poll results indicated a larger anti-county government movement afoot.

Voters throughout Orange County are rejecting an overbearing county planning process trying to build an intrusive new airport that most residents don’t believe is necessary, said Yes on F leader Jeffrey Metzger.

“There is an overall sense that the county is trying to shove something down the throats of citizens,” Metzger said. “Their plan is not persuasive. It’ll translate to victory on March 7.”

Poll respondent Brenda Fowler, 53, a hazardous-waste mechanic in Los Angeles, agreed. She’s voting for Measure F because a glut of public facilities near her home already produces too much noise and traffic. Forcing county officials to get a two-thirds vote first would keep her neighborhood from being besieged, she said.

“I live in Santa Ana and we have a jail right down the street,” she said. “We already get enough traffic from John Wayne [Airport] right on top of our house. I work in hazardous waste, so I really don’t believe we need another hazardous-waste landfill.”

Poll respondent Phillip Biles of Anaheim, a 62-year-old electronics engineer, believes otherwise. The opportunity to build another airport in Orange County is too good to pass up, he said.

“The opposition to the airport seems to be primarily ‘not in my backyard,’ ” he said. “They don’t want it near them and only want to put the airport somewhere else.”

James Kelley, 66, of Irvine sits solidly in the anti-airport camp.

“I’ve been anti-airport at El Toro since the debate started,” Kelley said. “Here at my house, I can hear the planes flying at John Wayne when the wind is right.”

But he said he is more concerned about traffic and pollution from commercial jet exhaust. “If anyone tells you the airport isn’t going to cause more traffic, well, they’ve got a bunch of rocks in their head,” he said.

Airport concerns were key considerations for Measure F supporters. Concern over jails and landfills was cited by very few.

Pro-airport consultant David Ellis said the results reflect an uncertainty that will evaporate as anti-airport messages on the airwaves and in mailboxes are countered.

“The campaign is just beginning,” said Ellis, who works for the Airport Working Group, a coalition of homeowners near John Wayne Airport who have pushed for construction of a second county airport for 20 years.

Whatever the election outcome, its results will be felt far beyond Orange County’s borders. Killing an airport at El Toro would likely force future regional air traffic growth onto Los Angeles, Ontario and San Diego international airports.

Times staff writer David Reyes contributed to this report.

* For more information about the airport debate, click onto The Times’ newly expanded Web site at https://www.latimes.com/eltoro. The site includes a comprehensive Measure F voter guide, special research sections, interactive bulletin boards, an insider column and the latest news.

* MORE ON EL TORO

For the latest, most complete information about the airport debate, click onto The Times’ newly expanded Web site at www.latimes.com/eltoro

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

A SHIFT IN THE AIR?

Orange County voters are no longer behind plans to build an airport at El Toro, according to a poll conducted by the Times Orange County edition. The passage of Measure F--an initiative that would halt airport plans--remains unclear: A majority of likely voters say they will support it March 7, but a sizable segment remains undecided, and has the power to shift the election either way. A closer look at voter sentiment on an El Toro Airport, and Measure F:

* AIRPORT SUPPORT: “Do you favor or oppose the proposal to transform the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport?”

MEASURE F SUPPORT: If passed, the initiative would require two-thirds of the county’s voters to approve any projects involving airports, hazardous-aste landfills and jails with more than 1,000 beds to be built near residential areas. Pollsters read the ballot initiative and then asked: “‘If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure F?”

“If Measure F fails, it could stop the county’s plans for an international airport at El Toro. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on Measure F?”

“What is the main reason for your vote on Measure F?” (open-ended question) Reason for Yes vote:

NOTE: This Times Orange County Poll of 800 registered voters was conducted February 9 through 12 by telephone on weekday nights and weekend days. Respondents were selected at random from a computer-generated sample that included listed and unlisted telephone numbers. Upon reaching a household, interviewers asked to speak with a registered voter. Of those polled, 512 were identified as likely to vote on March 7. The margin of error is 3.5% for the total sample and 4.5% for the subgroup of 512 likely voters. For smaller subgroups, such as age or region, the margin of error would be larger. For this analysis, “north” included Newport Beach and cities to the north and “south” included Irvine and cities to the south.

Source: Times Orange County Polls by Baldassare Associates

“What is the main reason for your vote on Measure F?” (open-ended question)

Reason for Yes vote:

*--*

Reasons Likely North South Voters County County Concerned about airport 40% 24% 70% Favor 2/3s vote requirement 36% 47% 18% Concerned about landfill 7% 7% 6% Concerned about jail 6% 7% 3% Other 11% 15% 3%

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Reason for No vote:

*--*

Reasons Likely Voters Oppose two-thirds vote requirement 51% Measure would stop El Toro 33% Sheriff opposes measure 4% Other 12%

*--*

NOTE: The poll of 800 registered voters was conducted February 9 through 12 by telephone on weekday nights and weekend days. Respondents were selected at random from a computer-generated sample that included listed and unlisted telephone numbers. Upon reaching a household, interviewers asked to speak with a registered voter. Of those polled, 512 were identified as likely to vote on March 7. The margin of error is 3.5% for the total sample and 4.5% for the subgroup of 512 likely voters. For smaller subgroups, such as age or region, the margin of error would be larger. For this analysis, “north” included Newport Beach and cities to the north and “south” included Irvine and cities to the south.

Source: Times Orange County Polls by Baldassare Associates