Will Just Deserts Be Served?

The big question in this week’s Grammy Awards isn’t whether Carlos Santana will win, but how many he’ll win.

The veteran guitarist and his band go into Wednesday’s ceremony at Staples Center with 10 nominations, including best album, best record and best rock instrumental. (Because he is nominated twice in the pop collaboration with vocal category, he can win a maximum of nine awards.)

But will he sweep?

It’s unlikely.

Even prohibitive favorites get upset somewhere along the line.

Last year, Lauryn Hill’s “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill”--a critical and commercial blockbuster--was the odds-on favorite to win in the best album category, and it did. But Hill won only four other Grammys on a night when she could have won nine.

Santana’s chances of topping Hill’s total are strong, however, because of the unusually low level of creative accomplishment in a year dominated by generally heartless youth-oriented and novelty pop acts.

Expect him to walk away with at least six awards.

Here’s a look at the some of the evening’s most interesting pop matchups. The ceremony will be broadcast on tape-delay on KCBS-TV at 8 p.m.

Album of the Year

The nominees: the Backstreet Boys’ “Millennium,” the Dixie Chicks’ “Fly,” Diana Krall’s “When I Look in Your Eyes,” Santana’s “Supernatural” and TLC’s “FanMail.”

It would be a lot easier to predict winners if all we had to consider was the quality of the work, but history has shown there are a lot of other factors involved when the estimated 10,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences cast their ballots.

Massive sales, mainstream accessibility and an artist’s history of accomplishment all increase a recording’s chances in the main categories.

“Supernatural” is such a favorite to win in this category because Santana rates high in all three areas. He’s a respected veteran, and his band’s “Supernatural” was a mainstream pop-rock work that has sold nearly 6 million albums in the U.S. alone, making it one of the five best-selling releases of 1999.

It’s icing on the cake that “Supernatural” is also the most accomplished of the five nominees. While below the creative daring of “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill,” the album is challenged artistically among this year’s nominees only by TLC, whose “FanMail” was a hip-hop collection of considerable personality and point of view.

The Dixie Chicks’ “Fly” and Krall’s “When I Look in Your Eyes” were acclaimed country and jazz albums, respectively, but neither asserts the individuality and innovation to deserve a best album nomination, much less a victory. The Backstreet Boys’ “Millennium” is more respected among industry pros than you’d assume (hence the nomination). But the only Grammy it warrants is best album by one of those annoying boy bands.

In the best record category and some best album categories, the Grammys go to the artist, the producer and the engineer or mixer. A “Supernatural” victory would mean Grammys for Santana (as artist and co-producer), Clive Davis (co-producer) and Steve Fontano (engineer/mixer). In most categories, the Grammys go to just the artist.

Most likely winner and most deserving winner: Santana.

Record of the Year

The nominees: the Backstreet Boys’ “I Want It That Way,” Cher’s “Believe,” Ricky Martin’s “Livin’ La Vida Loca,” Santana featuring Rob Thomas’ “Smooth” and TLC’s “No Scrubs.”

According to the buzz, this category is a two-record race between “Smooth” and “La Vida Loca,” which always raises the danger of the front-runners’ canceling each other out and allowing a longshot to sneak in. Under that scenario, you could picture TLC stepping to the podium Wednesday. For one thing, “No Scrubs” was the most imaginative of the nominees--a statement of female independence that was a defining moment in 1999 pop. The group also has a Grammy track record. Its “Waterfalls” was nominated for best single in 1995, losing to Seal’s “Kiss From a Rose.”

But odds are that “Smooth” (Matt Serletic, producer, and David Thoener, engineer/mixer) will ride the Santana bandwagon to victory over “La Vida Loca,” an overexposed novelty that even Martin must be burned out on. “I Want It That Way” and “Believe” are well-produced but generic recordings.

Most likely winner: Santana.

Most deserving winner: TLC.

New Artist

The nominees: Christina Aguilera, Macy Gray, Kid Rock, Britney Spears and Susan Tedeschi.

Gray, who combined traditional soul music instincts with hip-hop sensibilities, not only gave us the best album of any of the nominees, but she is also the artist who seems blessed with the most artistic promise and range. The runner-up would be blues-minded Tedeschi, whom some call the next Bonnie Raitt.

From there, you’re in trouble. Kid Rock is an irreverent rap-rocker who has probably spent half his life laughing at how dumb the Grammys are, and now he can point to his own nomination as confirmation.

Unless Aguilera and Spears split the vote, one of them will probably win--and it’ll probably be Aguilera despite that god-awful “Genie in a Bottle.” She shows elsewhere on her debut album that she has a strong voice, so she could evolve into a genuine artist. Spears is seen as little more than pop product.

Most likely winner: Christina Aguilera.

Most deserving winner: Macy Gray.

Pop Album

The nominees: the Backstreet Boys’ “Millennium,” Cher’s “Believe,” “Ricky Martin,” Sarah McLachlan’s “Mirrorball” and Sting’s “Brand New Day.”

There’s lot of commercial firepower in this category, but little commanding music. “Brand New Day” isn’t the best Sting album by far, but it’s the most credible entry. But how can Grammy voters resist Martin? His performance was the hit of last year’s Grammy show, and he is, even more than Santana, the symbol of the Latin pop surge. Desmond Child and Robi Rosa produced the album, while Charles Dye was the engineer/mixer. Longshot: a nostalgia vote for Cher.

Most likely winner: Ricky Martin.

Most deserving winner: Sting.

Rap Album

The nominees: Busta Rhymes’ “E.L.E. (Extinction Level Event--The Final World Front),” Missy “Misdemeanor” Elliott’s “Da Real World,” Eminem’s “The Slim Shady LP,” Nas’ “I Am” and the Roots’ “Things Fall Apart.”

Eminem’s debut was the most outrageous and entertaining rap collection of the year, but it’s hard to see Grammy voters giving him the award if they didn’t even nominate him for best new artist. Missy Elliott has class and reputation going for her. The album was produced by Timbaland, with Timbaland and Jerry Douglass the engineer-mixers.

Most likely winner: Missy Elliott.

Most deserving winner: Eminem.

Contemporary Folk Album

The nominees: Beausoleil’s “Cajunization,” Ani DiFranco and Utah Phillips’ “Fellow Workers,” John Prine’s “In Spite of Ourselves,” Linda Ronstadt and Emmylou Harris’ “Western Wall--The Tucson Sessions” and Tom Waits’ “Mule Variations.”

Lots of great artists are nominated in this catchall category, but only one made a great album last year. In a fair Grammy world, “Mule Variations” would have been nominated for best album. It’s the most personal and revealing work by one of the great songwriters of the modern pop era.

Most likely winner and most deserving winner: Tom Waits.

Alternative Music Performance

The nominees: Tori Amos’ “To Venus and Back,” Beck’s “Mutations,” Fatboy Slim’s “You’ve Come a Long Way, Baby,” Moby’s “Play” and Nine Inch Nails’ “The Fragile.”

“Play,” a timeless reflection on commitment and faith, and “The Fragile,” an uncompromising look at disillusionment, also deserved spots in the best album competition. But they may be longshots. There is so much respect for Beck that voters may go for “Mutations,” even though it was a “side project.” It’s a solid, affecting album, but not up to the level of the two rivals. (Beck’s “Midnite Vultures” was released after the Sept. 30 eligibility period for this year’s awards.)

Most likely winner: Beck.

Most deserving winner: Moby. *

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Robert Hilburn, The Times’ pop music critic, can be reached by e-mail at robert.hilburn@latimes.com