When Trading for Pitchers, It’s Buyer Beware

The Minnesota Twins’ signing of Brad Radke to a four-year contract eliminated one of the most coveted pitchers from an already meager trade market at a time when there is no relief--for contenders and pretenders alike--from the offensive pounding.

The runs-per-game average at the start of the final weekend before the All-Star break was 10.52, up significantly from the 10.17 of last year and the highest since 11.1 in 1930.

The major league batting average of .272, if sustained, will be the highest since .275 in 1939.

Even more illustrative of the diluted pitching and widespread force-feeding of young pitchers is the average of 7.68 walks per game, the most since 1950, when the average was 8.04.

The non-waiver trade deadline is July 31 and there is certain to be movement, but seldom has the pitching market been this thin or carried such high risks, financial and otherwise.

Here’s a catalog on potentially available pitchers:

PREMIER--COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING

Mike Mussina, Baltimore (6-7, 3.68 ERA): Contract talks with the Orioles involving a Kevin Brown-caliber package have gone nowhere. Mussina is determined to test free agency at the end of the season and insists he will exercise his no-trade clause to stop a trade. The Orioles are in a bind. They don’t want to trade a pivotal rebuilding block but don’t want to get only draft choices as compensation if Mussina leaves as a free agent.

Denny Neagle, Cincinnati (8-2, 3.52): It’s hard to believe the pitching-strapped Reds would trade their best starter, but the reality is, they have little chance of catching the St. Louis Cardinals and probably will lose Neagle as a free agent if they don’t move him now.

WORTH THE RISK--MAYBE

Darren Dreifort, Dodgers (4-7, 5.14): If the Dodgers are serious about trading him, there are bound to be suitors, despite his inconsistency, imminent free agency and what scouts call a startling loss of velocity. Agent Scott Boras has been allowed to dictate how Dreifort is used, which is bad business, but there is no one in a barren system to replace him if traded.

Curt Schilling, Philadelphia (4-5, 4.26): The Phillies insist their would-be ace is not available, but insiders say Schilling is lobbying to join a contender. He is not all the way back from major shoulder surgery, but he could be big down the stretch and a $6.5-million bargain next year.

Francisco Cordova, Pittsburgh (5-7, 4.68): He’s a no-hitter pitcher who too often doesn’t resemble it, but is only 27 and a legitimate No. 3 or 4 starter--if recent elbow problems don’t turn out to be serious.

Todd Ritchie, Pittsburgh (5-5, 4.42): He hasn’t come back to his 15-9 groove of last year, but teams are intrigued by the possibility he will.

Brett Tomko, Seattle (4-2, 4.93): The seventh starter in baseball’s deepest rotation, Tomko would fit into the middle of most other rotations, but the Mariners will move him only for a left-handed-hitting run producer.

SERIOUS GAMBLES

Kent Bottenfield, Angels (4-7, 5.78): It isn’t clear that Bottenfield is on the block, but the Angels have made no contract offer to a pitcher who can become a free agent when the season ends. Also, many in the organization believe it best to move him while teams still remember his 18 wins of last year, they have young arms capable of matching his four wins in half a season and the tendinitis that sidelined him earlier remains dormant.

Scott Erickson, Baltimore (4-6, 7.32): A tough trade, considering his approval rights as a 10-and-five player, the $18 million he’s owed over the next three seasons and his inability to win consistently any more as basically a two-pitch pitcher.

Ismael Valdes, Chicago Cubs (1-2, 4.83): He’s a $5.7-million bust with the Cubs, but teams remain intrigued by his stuff while confounded by his inability to deliver it regularly. Persistent questions of fortitude have been compounded this year by a series of physical problems.

Kevin Tapani, Cubs (4-7, 4.53): He’s owed $6 million again next year, a stiff price for a pitcher who approaches the break with a 10-19 record over the last year and a half.

Andy Ashby, Phillies (4-7, 5.68): Back and other problems have played into a disappointing season for a pitcher who has stunningly rejected several Philadelphia offers in the $8-million-a-year range, opting to test the free-agent market at the end of the season. His poor performance and inflated contract view limit his trade value, but Ashby has been a 17-game winner with attractive potential when 100% in mind and body.

Jose Lima, Houston (1-13, 7.52): He could regain some of his 21-win form of 1999 if removed from the mind-bending environment of Enron Field. Then again, much of his ’99 success stemmed from the reassuring dimensions of the Astrodome and he has long been an ordinary pitcher on the road. He’s owed $12 million over the next two years, a tough swallow.

Hideo Nomo, Detroit (3-7, 4.74): Somebody may bite, but there’s no Nomomania.

Esteban Loaiza, Texas (5-5, 5.42): He’s frustrating the Rangers, just as he previously frustrated the Pirates. He has outstanding stuff, but no evidence that he knows how to use it consistently. That’s never a deterrent because there’s always another club convinced it knows how to nurse it out of the Loaizas of the game.

And there are bound to be clubs jumping at these gambles, particularly since almost all of pitching is just that now.