Amid All the Good News, Some Ominous Signs for Bush

Overwhelming support from core Republicans and conservatives allowed George W. Bush to push John McCain toward the edge of elimination Tuesday night in the GOP presidential race but left open questions about the breadth of Bush’s appeal as a general election candidate.

By winning all of the contests at stake outside the Northeast, Bush has amassed a lead in the delegate race so commanding that some McCain advisors believe he could soon decide to withdraw from the race, especially after failing to win a majority of the delegates in New York. Over the next week, the calendar turns sharply against McCain, with primaries in nine conservative Mountain and Southern states that all now lean heavily toward Bush.

But while Bush amassed crushing margins among Republicans, he continued to struggle with more centrist voters in the largest states, according to exit polls by The Times in California and The Times and Voter News Service in Ohio and New York. Even though Bush has now forced McCain to the brink, the senator from Arizona has outpolled the Texas governor among moderate voters in every major primary. The pattern suggests that if Bush wins the GOP nomination, he will need to broaden his appeal to centrist voters after his highly partisan and ideological duel with McCain.

That picture was perhaps most vivid in California, where a surge of conservative support swept Bush past McCain not only in the battle for the state’s 162 delegates but also the nonbinding “beauty contest” portion of the primary. Yet The Times exit poll found that Bush’s apparent victory over McCain in the blanket primary depended entirely on his strength among Republicans: Bush actually ran far behind not only McCain but also Vice President Al Gore among such critical swing groups as moderate and independent voters, the survey found.

Vice President Shows Wider Appeal in State

The Times exit poll found that Gore showed broad appeal in California while dispatching Bill Bradley in the competition for Democratic delegates and finishing atop the primary’s popularity vote. While Bush won only conservatives voting in his primary and lost moderates, Gore beat Bradley by a resounding margin among both moderate and liberal Democrats in California. Bradley, who had spent weeks attacking Gore as a “conservative Democrat,” ran somewhat better among liberals in Ohio and New York. However, in both those states Gore still carried clear majorities among both liberal and centrist Democratic voters.

The Times exit poll in California surveyed 4,106 voters, including 1,707 Democrats and 1,468 Republicans as they left 75 precincts around the state; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. (Polls of Democrats only and Republicans only had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.)

The Times/VNS poll surveyed 1,698 Democrats and 1,414 Republicans in New York at 50 precincts; in Ohio, the Times/VNS poll surveyed 1,226 Republicans and 918 Democrats in 45 precincts. The New York and Ohio surveys have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for each party’s primary.

Tuesday’s contests between Bush and McCain followed precisely the grooves cut in February, with each mobilizing now-familiar coalitions. In each of the three major prizes on Tuesday’s calendar--California, New York and Ohio--Bush flattened McCain among conservative voters, especially conservative Republicans, according to the exit polls. In all three states, McCain beat Bush among moderate voters and independents. That was enough to keep McCain within range in New York and the popularity portion of the California primary--but not nearly enough to seriously threaten Bush in the race for the delegates in California or Ohio.

Ideology proved especially significant in the portion of the California race open only to Republicans: the delegate contest. Bush overpowered McCain on the strength of a huge margin among conservatives--and a huge conservative turnout, the exit poll found. Conservatives constituted more than two-thirds of California GOP voters Tuesday, more than in any Republican primary so far this year. About one-quarter of the GOP electorate described itself as “very conservative,” a share as high as in South Carolina.

Similarly, one-quarter of California GOP primary voters described themselves as evangelical Christians. That was a big increase over the share of the vote that evangelicals cast in the GOP presidential primary here in 1996 and could reflect a backlash against McCain’s attacks on conservative Christian leaders Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson. It could also reflect high turnout because of California’s anti-gay marriage initiative, Proposition 22.

These voters all overwhelmingly preferred Bush.

That powerful uprising on the right placed McCain in a hole too deep to escape. Moderate and liberal Republicans gave McCain a 15-point advantage over Bush in California. But such moderates constituted only about 3-in-10 Republican voters, far too few to save McCain.

By contrast, most traditional demographic factors had little effect on the race. According to The Times exit poll, there was, for instance, virtually no difference in the preferences of men and women; McCain ran no better among veterans than among the electorate overall.

In the nonbinding blanket primary, McCain demonstrated far more appeal than Bush to the centrist voters needed to win the state in a general election. But McCain’s hope of overtaking Bush was extinguished between Bush’s unbreakable hold on conservatives and Al Gore’s competing appeal for centrist voters.

In most states, for instance, McCain has been winning about two-thirds of independents voting in the GOP primary. However, because of Gore’s attraction to these same voters, McCain took about 40% of the moderates in California’s blanket primary.

Democrats voting in earlier Republican primaries gave McCain about 80% of their votes--but with Gore and Bradley on the ballot, McCain attracted only about 1 in 7 of them in the blanket primary here, the exit poll found.

Problem Areas for Bush Outlined in Poll

Despite Bush’s delegate victory, the exit poll raised substantial warning signs about his capacity to contest California in the fall. For one thing, in the blanket primary, he ran behind both McCain and Gore with swing voters. Bush worked hard to court Latinos, even buying Spanish-language television ads, but Latino voters preferred Gore over Bush by more than 2 to 1.

The exit poll showed that Bush faces enormous skepticism about his plan for a sweeping across-the-board cut in tax rates. Asked if they would prefer using the federal surplus for a tax cut or largely to bolster Medicare and Social Security, 70% of California voters picked the latter.

Other findings also underscore Bush’s challenge in making a case for political change in California next fall. Two-thirds of voters said they believed the country was on the right track, and more than 90% said the state’s economy was doing well.

All of that could bolster Gore as he argues, as he did in his victory speech Tuesday night, against “go[ing] back to where we were eight years ago.” Still, the survey also pinpoints one potential problem for the vice president: two-thirds of California voters said they disliked Clinton personally.

That personal antipathy toward Clinton wasn’t enough to slow Gore’s roll over Bradley in the state, or in New York and Ohio. In California, Gore dominated even among groups where Bradley had earlier seemed strong. Gore beat Bradley by about a 3-to-1 ratio among Democratic men, college graduates and even among liberals. Gore carried African Americans and Latinos both by ratios of at least 7 to 1.

In Ohio and New York, Bradley showed more appeal to less-partisan voters but was decimated by Gore’s hold among core Democrats. Gore drew at least three-fourths of African American voters in both Ohio and New York. Labor unions, which mounted a huge effort on Gore’s behalf, turned out big, constituting 40% of the vote in New York and slightly more in Ohio. They gave about two-thirds of their votes to Gore in New York and nearly three-fourths in Ohio.

Back in the Republican race, the Ohio results typified the dilemma that McCain has faced in most states since winning New Hampshire. He won handily among Democrats and independents who crossed over to participate. But not nearly enough of them did so to offset Bush’s success in winning nearly 70% of the Republican votes, the same percentage he won in South Carolina, Michigan and Virginia.

Traces of the religious conflicts that have riven the GOP race over the last three weeks were evident in both Ohio and New York. For weeks, McCain has sharply criticized Bush for appearing at fundamentalist Bob Jones University in South Carolina without condemning anti-Catholic statements by some of its leaders. A week ago Sunday, Bush wrote New York’s Cardinal John O’Connor to apologize.

McCain carried Roman Catholics in New York but lost among them in Ohio.

As in California, McCain appeared to face a backlash over his attacks on Robertson and Falwell in both Ohio and New York. In each state, about 40% of GOP voters said McCain’s criticism last week had influenced their vote; in New York, those voters preferred Bush by more than 2 to 1. In Ohio, they stampeded toward Bush by overwhelming margins.

McCain Faces Harsher Primary Calendar

Both the Ohio and New York Republican electorates were much more moderate than their counterpart in California.

Though the electorates were similar, McCain ran better in New York than Ohio for two reasons. One was that he amassed a much larger margin among moderates in New York. Even more important was McCain’s showing among voters just to the right of center--those who call themselves somewhat conservative.

In Ohio, they backed Bush by more than 2 to 1. But in New York, McCain matched Bush step for step among those voters.

Now, facing a GOP primary calendar that turns toward more conservative Mountain states on Friday and the South next Tuesday, McCain has to decide whether that constitutes a base strong enough from which to continue his campaign.

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The Message Behind the Votes

The Times’ exit poll Tuesday found that California voters saw education and the economy as the top two issues that had influenced their choices for president.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED:

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 4,106 voters as they left 75 polling places across California during voting hours (including 1,707 Democrats and 1,468 Republicans). Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past statewide elections. The survey was a self-administered, confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the entire sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points; for some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Because the survey does not include absentee voters or those who declined to participate when approached, actual returns and demographic estimates by the interviewers were used to adjust the sample slightly. Questionnaires were available to the voters in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese. Interviews at the precinct level were conducted by Davis Research of Calabasas.

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Times poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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The Times exit poll was supervised by Poll Director Susan Pinkus.

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PROJECTED OUTCOMES

GOP

DEMOCRATIC

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* GORE’S TURNING POINT

Vice president’s decision to focus on campaign and not official duties paid off. A19

* RELATED COVERAGE: A19-22