This Card Presents a Classic Dilemma

Horseplayers annually savor the chance to play the Breeders’ Cup because they can hold strong convictions about high-class horses and still obtain good betting value. Today’s races at Churchill Downs offer some excellent betting propositions--though not in the main event, the Classic.

Fusaichi Pegasus is the most likely winner of the race; his astute trainer, Neil Drysdale, has been pointing for this objective for months. Yet the best performance of his career to date (as measured by speed figures) is inferior to a half dozen of his rivals. If the odds are right, it may be reasonable to bet a horse on the expectation that he will deliver his lifetime best effort, but at 8-5, Fusaichi Pegasus offers terrible value.

But a bettor who decides to take a stand against the favorite has no easy task. What does he do with Giant’s Causeway, the most talented of the challengers, who has never competed on dirt before? How can he separate the other evenly matched contenders?

Because I neither want to bet on Fusaichi Pegasus nor take a position against him, I plan to focus my action elsewhere. The Breeders’ Cup offers a cornucopia of wagers--including the Pick Six with a $5-million guaranteed pool and Pick Threes throughout the card. I plan to make my major play on the Juvenile Fillies, and also bet Pick Threes involving races where I believe I can narrow the field to two or three contenders.

DISTAFF

Riboletta has won six stakes in a row impressively, and she will continue to dominate the nation’s best fillies and mares. Her main rival, Beautiful Pleasure, couldn’t beat Riboletta after opening an uncontested five-length lead at Belmont Park last month, and she won’t do it after facing early pressure in the Distaff. But Riboletta’s odds will be too short for a win bet.

JUVENILE FILLIES

It is usually difficult to predict the way a Breeders’ Cup event will unfold, but in this one the scenario seems preordained. The lineup is loaded with fast front-runners whose stamina may be suspect--including the undefeated favorite, Raging Fever, and the California star, Notable Career. A destructively fast pace will enervate every runner close to the lead, and set up the race for a 2-year-old filly who can rally from far, far behind. That filly is Cindy’s Hero. She rallied from last to win a stakes at Del Mar, but she couldn’t make her late run effectively over an extremely speed-favoring track in her last start. She will get a perfect setup here. As part of my make-or-break play of the day, I will bet Cindy’s Hero in exactas with two others who can finish strongly, Freefourracing and She’s A Devil Due.

MILE

In 1991, when the Mile looked as wide-open as it does this year, I used 10 horses in the Pick Seven, and still didn’t run first or second. With that memory in mind, I will pass on the Pick Six, which begins with this event. It is inscrutable.

SPRINT

Although the six-furlong dash has a tradition of producing surprises, it will be won today by one of two logical horses: Caller One or Kona Gold. Caller One is a freakishly fast 3-year-old, and if he can withstand early pressure from the quick Five Star Day, he will win. If the pressure takes some toll (as it probably will), Kona Gold will wear down the leader. I will start a Pick Three using these two.

FILLY & MARE TURF

A winner of three consecutive Group I stakes in Europe, Petrushka is obviously a formidable contender. But while she has been beating other 3-year-old fillies, Catella has been running creditably in Germany against older males, suggesting that the 30-1 shot can be competitive here. The U.S. contingent has plenty of talent, too, and the most impressive performance delivered by any of its members was a victory by Colstar at Belmont Park last month. After the leader in the Flower Bowl Handicap set a slow pace and opened a four-length lead, Colstar made a stunning late run and charged from last place to first. If she can duplicate that effort, she can beat the best in the world. I’ll use Petrushka, Catella and Colstar in exactas and Pick Threes.

JUVENILE

Flame Thrower and Street Cry have finished 1-2 in the two stakes that produced the high speed figures of the year for 2-year-old colts. The gutty front-runner, Flame Thrower, may be the better colt, but he could have a difficult trip from post 12, with other speed horses inside him. Street Cry’s late-running style might be better suited to this race. Either of them can beat the overrated Eastern 2-year-olds.

TURF

America’s male grass runners have been an undistinguished group this season, and into their midst come two highly acclaimed invaders, Montjeu and Kalanisi. Montjeu is one of the best European runners in years--he won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe as a 3-year-old last season--but his form has declined lately, and Kalanisi upset him by a half-length last month. Kalanisi has run well in every race , and has given Giant’s Causeway two tough battles. He is the one to beat unless Montjeu (who may be aided by Kentucky’s liberal medication policies) summons up one last big effort.