Crime Down for 8th Year, FBI Reports

Crime in the United States fell for a record eighth straight year in 1999, with California experiencing an even sharper drop than the rest of the country, the FBI reported Sunday.

The downward trend held true for virtually all types of crime, in all regions of the country, in cities, suburbs and rural areas alike, according to federal statisticians.

But criminologists warned that with many big cities--including Los Angeles--experiencing a spike in murders and violence in recent months, the days of declining crime rates could be nearing an end.

“It won’t go on forever,” said Northeastern University criminologist James Alan Fox.

“In fact, many cities have already hit bottom” in their crime rates, he said. “It’s what I call the criminal justice limbo stick. You can only go so low, and then the struggle becomes, how do we make sure the numbers don’t go way up again? There’s a certain complacency settling in among people, and that’s a mistake. Crime is very resilient.”

The FBI’s 422-page annual report, which details criminal trends in the nation, confirms many of the preliminary findings that the agency first reported in April. The report is available online at https://www.fbi.gov/ucr.htm.

The final numbers issued Sunday found a total of 11.6 million criminal offenses in 1999, including both violent and property crimes.

That translates to 4,267 crimes per 100,000 people, a reduction of 7.6% from 1998 and the steepest single-year drop in two decades, officials said.

The murder count--about six homicides per 100,000 people last year--declined 8%, to its lowest level since 1966. The incidence of robbery also fell 8%, while the rates of aggravated assault declined 6%, forcible rape 4%, burglary 10%, and motor vehicle theft 8%, the FBI said.

In California, the progress was even more dramatic. The state saw a 12.4% decline in the overall crime rate, to 3,805 offenses per 100,000 people last year.

Nearly all of California’s biggest metropolitan areas reported crime rates below the national average.

Orange County was the safest of the state’s biggest metropolitan areas, with 2,766 crimes per 100,000 residents. San Jose came in next at 2,887 crimes per 100,000, followed by San Diego at 3,464, Los Angeles/Long Beach at 3,883, the Bay Area at 4,087, and Sacramento at 4,363.

As crime has continued to drop since the early 1990s, politicians and policy experts have often disagreed about the fundamental causes.

A booming economy and lower unemployment are often cited as partial explanations, but criminologists say other factors--including more police officers, tougher sentencing laws, more prison beds, greater focus on drug treatment, and the graying of the population--may play a part.

The findings were hailed by President Clinton, who used the occasion to urge Congress to extend a program to put more police officers on the street and to enact new gun controls.

“The overall crime rate is at a 26-year low, and the violent crime rate is down to its lowest point in over two decades,” Clinton said in a statement. “We must do more to ensure that these downward trends continue.”

Atty. Gen. Janet Reno issued a similar appeal. “We cannot rest,” she said. “We must build on the progress we have made in reducing crime.”