Hall-Star Credentials

Bill James, baseball historian and author, has devised two measurements to gauge a player’s chances of induction--the Hall of Fame Standards and Hall of Fame Monitor.

The Standards measure the overall value of a player’s career. A score of 50 is average for a Hall of Fame member and 100 is the maximum. Christy Mathewson has the highest score at 84 and Babe Ruth the highest among batters at 78.

The Monitor measures how likely a player is to make the Hall of Fame. A score of 130 or better indicates the player is nearly a cinch; a score of 100-129 indicates he has a strong possibility. Ty Cobb has the highest score at 454 and Walter Johnson the highest among pitchers at 354.

The 40 active players with Hall of Fame Monitor scores higher than 75 through the 2000 season follow:

PREPARE THE INDUCTION SPEECH

* Tony Gwynn, Outfield (HOF standards: 54; HOF monitor: 286): The round mound of batting crowns will retire with the strongest credentials of any eligible player since Hank Aaron. His .339 average ranks 22nd overall and leads active players. Seven batting titles, 15 All-Star appearances, five Gold Gloves and 3,133 hits cement the career-long San Diego Padre as a first-ballot inductee.

* Cal Ripken Jr., Shortstop (59.4; 253): A rapid induction for His Gray Eminence is cast in iron thanks to the record of 2,632 consecutive games. Some of Ripken’s batting and fielding numbers are marginal, but he was the first shortstop besides Ernie Banks to bring power to the position and his 3,144 hits and 426 home runs are testaments to his stamina.

* Roger Clemens, Starting Pitcher (59; 225): At 39, the dominant right-handed power pitcher of his generation still huffs and puffs and blows batters down, enjoying a second wind the last five years with the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees that erases any doubts. Clemens has 275 victories, five Cy Young Awards, an MVP award, 3,651 strikeouts and two World Series titles.

* Greg Maddux, Starting Pitcher (55; 196.5): Maddux is the sly fox to Clemens’ big, bad wolf, pitching for 16 years with unequaled intelligence and command. Four Cy Young Awards, 11 Gold Gloves and a winning percentage of .643 are impeccable qualifications. Although he’s never won more than 20 games--five times getting stuck on 19--his ERAs of 1.56 and 1.63 in ’94 and ’95 qualify as big seasons.

* Randy Johnson, Starting Pitcher (47; 188.5): The third sure-thing pitcher has a .658 winning percentage, including .733 since 1993, and is the premier left-hander of his generation. Johnson should finish behind only Nolan Ryan on the all-time strikeout list. Writers who don’t vote for Johnson should be forced to stand in against him from the left-handed batter’s box.

* Barry Bonds, Outfield (62; 185.5): Bonds’ late-career power surge cements his place in the upper echelon of sluggers. Three MVP awards, eight Gold Gloves and 479 stolen bases are impressive testaments to his all-around ability. Bonds, whose bat speed and conditioning are better than ever, could challenge Aaron’s career home run mark.

* Ken Griffey Jr., Outfield (46; 185): Will Griffey, only 31, return to the level of ‘96-99, when he hit 209 home runs? His batting numbers are most similar to those of Albert Belle, Jose Canseco, Duke Snider and Dick Allen, not exactly the stratosphere. Most similar through age 30 are Aaron, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle and Mel Ott, a more glittering group.

* Mark McGwire, First Base (40.4; 174): He might be on his last legs, but McGwire’s credentials are sturdy. From the 49 homers he hit as a rookie of the year in 1987 to his unmatched string of 52, 58, 70 and 65 homers in ‘96-99, McGwire is the pure power hitter against whom future sluggers will be compared. He averages a homer every 10.6 at-bats.

* Frank Thomas, First Base (48.3; 168): That Thomas is ranked above Rickey Henderson illustrates a flaw in the HOF Monitor. Sure, he’s hit 40 or more homers four times, is batting .319 and won two MVP awards. But the Big Hurt’s chances are harmed by poor fielding and only two postseason appearances.

* Rickey Henderson, Outfield (52.8; 158): A strange bird, to be sure, but Henderson’s perch at the top of the career stolen base list is reason enough for his induction. This season he should set the record for runs and could reach 3,000 hits. The greatest leadoff hitter of his generation.

* Roberto Alomar, Second Base (46; 148): Alomar is at the peak of a quietly illustrious career. By the time he is through, he could have the best numbers of any second baseman this side of Rogers Hornsby. Alomar already has surpassed Ryne Sandberg in most categories and is a superior fielder.

WELL ON THEIR WAY

* Jeff Bagwell, First Base (55; 121): The hitter who doesn’t stride is taking giant steps toward Cooperstown. Bagwell was rookie of the year in 1991 and is still improving, posting career-high totals of 47 homers and 132 RBIs in 2000. Bagwell was MVP in ’94 and twice had 30 stolen bases.

* Mike Piazza, Catcher (55; 121): Piazza’s ability to hit for average and power is unsurpassed by any catcher in history. A move to first base should not diminish his Hall of Fame chances because he has caught for 10 years and could extend his career long enough to reach 500 homers.

* Pedro Martinez, Starting Pitcher (43; 118.5): Baseball’s dominant pitcher the last four years must rebound strongly from his current arm injury. Three Cy Young Awards, a .691 winning percentage and an ERA well under any other American League pitcher are strong points, but a sound arm will be key to putting up the requisite career numbers.

* Tom Glavine, Starting Pitcher (38; 115.5): Five 20-win seasons and a .628 winning percentage are in his favor, but at age 35 Glavine is 81 victories shy of 300. Should he be inducted if Tommy John (288 victories) and Bert Blyleven (287) are not?

* Rafael Palmeiro, First Base (44.5; 113): Palmeiro is in the seventh season of a power surge that should vault him beyond 500 home runs in 2003. His batting average is decent and he has three Gold Gloves in his 30s. His biggest drawbacks are playing a position deep in sluggers and never appearing in a World Series.

* John Franco, Relief Pitcher (13; 111): Ranking No. 2 in career saves makes Franco hard to ignore, despite the fact the Standards score doesn’t take saves into consideration. But all-time leader Lee Smith must get in first. Franco’s most startling stat is that he has three hits in 17 seasons--the last coming in 1989. A closer shouldn’t come to bat if he’s doing his job, so the fewer lifetime hits, the better.

* Ivan Rodriguez, Catcher (39; 111): Like Piazza, I-Rod is a catcher with a potent bat. Unlike Piazza, Rodriguez has won nine consecutive Gold Gloves, which should give him definite squatter’s rights in Cooperstown. He was MVP in ‘99, when he batted .332 with 35 homers, 113 RBIs and 25 stolen bases.

* Sammy Sosa, Outfield (27; 110): Sosa should make it on his power numbers, which show no signs of abating. Although he has basically stopped running, he should finish with 250 stolen bases and as many as 600 home runs--cinch Hall of Fame credentials.

* Barry Larkin, Shortstop (45; 110): An MVP award, 11 All-Star appearances, nine seasons batting over .300 and three Gold Gloves make this career-long Cincinnati Red the dominant National League shortstop of his generation. But unless he comes back from injuries to post another solid season or two, he might linger on the ballot.

* Larry Walker, Outfield (40; 109): Injuries cost Walker an average of 25 games a season and his numbers are inflated by playing at Coors Field. Yet his batting and throwing skills are undeniably great. He hit better than .360 three years in a row and has 206 stolen bases to go with 299 homers. He needs to continue at the same level another several years.

* Juan Gonzalez, Outfield (30.3; 103.5): Gonzalez and Sosa broke into the big leagues in 1989 and Gonzalez has more RBIs and a higher batting average. He is one year younger than Sosa and should play long enough to eclipse 500 home runs.

* Alex Rodriguez, Shortstop (30; 99): No shortstop in history has put up numbers like Rodriguez in his first five full seasons. He has more home runs before age 26 than anyone but Jimmie Foxx and Eddie Mathews and needs only to faithfully play out his 10-year, $252-million contract to ensure a place in Cooperstown.

* Derek Jeter, Shortstop (28; 99): He lacks A-Rod’s power, but Jeter has four World Series championships, three consecutive 200-hit seasons and a batting average of .320. Measure Jeter’s numbers against most Hall of Fame shortstops and it’s clear he is ahead of schedule.

* Bernie Williams, Outfield (33; 98.5): Not exactly in the Yankee outfield tradition of Ruth, DiMaggio and Mantle, but Williams has hit over .300 six years in a row, scored 100 runs five years in a row, driven in 100 runs in four of the last five years and won four consecutive Gold Gloves. And, of course, there are the four rings.

* Nomar Garciaparra, Shortstop (33; 96): Assuming he comes back strong from a wrist injury, Garciaparra should assemble Hall of Fame numbers at a rate comparable to Alex Rodriguez and Jeter. He has the highest batting average of the trio and has 190 or more hits in each of his four full seasons.

* Craig Biggio, Second Base (40.8; 95): The premier National League second baseman for more than a decade, Biggio has solid, if not eye-popping credentials. His best stretch was 1997-98 when he had 391 hits, 269 runs, 88 doubles, 42 homers and a .318 average.

* Chipper Jones, Third Base (30; 89): The Baseball Writers have voted only six third basemen into the Hall of Fame, which could work to Jones’ benefit should he continue his current pace for another 10 years. At 28, Jones has established a pattern of batting .300 with 100 RBIs, 100 runs and 30-45 home runs.

* Manny Ramirez, Outfield (36; 79): Another young outfielder who makes hitting look easy, Ramirez is on the astounding pace set by Gonzalez and Sosa. His Monitor score is growing as rapidly as anyone’s.

* Todd Helton, First Base (35; 77): Any player who bats .372 with 42 homers, 59 doubles and 147 RBIs in a season has Hall of Fame potential. The only question is whether Helton can sustain production long enough to rank among the best at a hitter-rich position.

RUNNING OUT OF TIME

* Edgar Martinez, Designated Hitter (42.6; 120): A tough sell. Martinez played only three full seasons at third base before becoming a designated hitter. His .319 average ranks eighth among active players and includes two batting titles, but at age 38 he will be hard-pressed to reach 300 homers.

* Andres Galarraga, First Base (32; 112): Although he has a batting title, a home run title and similar numbers to another Big Cat, Hall of Fame member Johnny Mize, Galarraga, 40, will need new life as a San Francisco Giant to avoid being left behind by Palmeiro, among others. Galarraga’s courageous comeback from cancer could make him a sentimental favorite of the Veterans’ Committee.

* Jose Canseco, Outfield (35.9; 103): The player everyone loves to loathe is somehow continuing his push toward 500 home runs--even hitting them for sick children. His rookie of the year and MVP awards are distant memories, and the plethora of qualified outfielders makes him less than a sure thing.

* David Cone, Starting Pitcher (37; 96): Cone is a ho-hum candidate along the lines of Dwight Gooden, Dave McNally and Dave Stieb because he probably won’t reach 200 victories, has an uninspiring ERA and only two 20-victory seasons. Cone’s biggest plus is that there are few starting pitchers of his generation with superior numbers.

* Tim Raines, Outfield (46.1; 91): Batting .295 over a 22-year career and ranking fifth on the all-time stolen base list will give Raines support. But he won only one batting title and his best years were spent in Montreal.

* Kenny Lofton, Outfield (31; 87): Even with four Gold Gloves, Lofton is not a likely choice because his stolen bases have dropped off. He’ll have difficulty reaching Raines’ numbers.

* Fred McGriff, First Base (40.9; 85): He has never hit 40 homers or driven in 110 runs and plays a position where many have better numbers. McGriff can enhance his chances by helping the Chicago Cubs to a World Series title and eclipsing 500 home runs.

* Mo Vaughn, First Base (29.9; 81): Yet another slugging first baseman, Vaughn needs to regain his health and post at least four or five more .300-35-110 seasons to have a chance.

* John Smoltz, Starting Pitcher (32; 80): Injuries have made this third candidate from the Braves’ rotation a longshot. Smoltz has only one 20-victory season.

* Kevin Brown, Starting Pitcher (34; 77): With four consecutive 200-strikeout seasons and a low ERA, Brown is unquestionably dominant. Yet he has averaged only 14 victories in his 12 full seasons, winning 20 once.