A Safe, Cozy Holiday

By GREG JOHNSON

Dec. 8, 2001 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

Fireplace logs are hot, despite unseasonably warm weather that’s sent winter coat sales plummeting. Kids are enamored of Harry Potter’s fantasy world, but they’re also asking for firefighter and paramedic action dolls. And parents are snatching DVD players and video games--even as they snap up locks, fire extinguishers and carbon monoxide detectors.

It’s an upside-down, yin-and-yang world for retailers trying to get a grip on a holiday shopping season that’s been dramatically reshaped by recessionary fears and the terrorist attacks.

Consumers are in the mood for merchandise that helps soothe troubled spirits and foster togetherness. But they also are stocking up on products that add to their sense of security.

This telling blend of rosy holiday cheer and darker-tinged realities is evident at Amazon.com, where sales of children’s history volumes and books about war and about how government works have tripled. Fear of flying has slowed sales of travel books, but road atlases and audio books are flying off the shelves.

Sales of rock salt and snow shovels at Ace Hardware plummeted, but Ace shoppers are using the good weather to install outdoor holiday decorations, many of which are a patriotic red, white and blue.

MP3 players and DVDs are proving to be a digital delight for profit-hungry electronics stores. But Evansville, Ind.-based Escalade Sports reports strong interest in such analog-era diversions as Foosball, air hockey, billiards and pingpong tables.

And although gamers have stripped store shelves clean of snazzy new Microsoft Xbox and Nintendo GameCube video game consoles, one of the hottest holiday season video titles is a Harry Potter adventure that plays only on Sony’s 6-year-old PlayStation.

Retailers never know what’s around the next corner during a routine holiday season, but the 2001 holiday season is murkier than most. Consider Duraflame Inc. and Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corp., two companies that traditionally heat up when winter arrives.

Department stores can’t sell winter coats, and discounter Burlington is snapping up cold-weather apparel from manufacturers at deep discount for winter’s inevitable return.

Duraflame, meanwhile, approached the fourth quarter fully expecting holiday season sales to lag behind those of 2000, when cold weather pushed revenue to a five-year high. But weather isn’t the only driver for the Stockton-based company. “People don’t generally burn our product for heat,” spokeswoman Sarah Solari said. “They burn it for atmosphere.”

Yankee Candle Co.’s kitchen candles feature aromas that mimic banana cream pies and coconut cakes. “Our customers are looking for fragrances that remind them of earlier, simpler, more-pleasant times,” spokeswoman Susan Stockman said.

Shoppers pulled in their horns long before economists determined that the country’s long-running expansion had ended. Even though stores were awash in discounts before the Thanksgiving weekend, marketers still hope to eke out modest gains over last year’s $200-billion season.

Why the optimism? The 2001 holiday season has what’s been lacking in past seasons--hot products in the form of the Harry Potter juggernaut and the game consoles from Microsoft Corp. and Nintendo Co.

The youthful wizard is working his magic--even though author J.K. Rowling slapped restrictions on licensed merchandise associated with the best-selling books and the blockbuster movie. A 1989 “Batman” movie pushed 250 licensed products onto store shelves; Pottermaniacs must make do with 87 items.

KBToys.com reports strong demand for Lego’s snap-together Hogwarts Castle. Kids also are demanding the Harry Potter Snapes Potion Lab, which lets would-be chemists cook up fizzy concoctions.

But kids also have reality on their minds, and that makes the Fisher-Price Rescue Heroes line, which features police officers, firefighters and their equipment a must-have. Rescue Heroes, which has been on the market for years, is “a great industry story,” said David Novitsky, vice president of merchandising for KBToys.com and EToys.com. “It’s a line geared toward younger boys, and it’s really taken off since 9-11. It’s a positive role model for kids.”

On the video game front, both Microsoft (Xbox) and Nintendo (GameCube) claim to rule the video game console roost, having sold out both product lines within minutes after their launches this fall. Sony Corp. insists its PlayStation 2 console still wears the crown it snatched after its October 2000 introduction.

The dispute won’t be settled until later this month when market research firm NPD Group Inc. releases its widely watched sales estimates. The category won’t need much wizardry, though, to push hardware and software sales to record levels.

DVD Players Cross ‘Magic’ $100 Threshold

Consumer electronics sales are projected to fall by 5% to $90.6 billion--the first dip in a decade for the digitally dominated sector. What’s hot: DVD players, video game consoles, cell phones, digital cameras and security devices.

DVD players are going to be under lots of trees because bare-bones models have crossed under $100, the “magic price point,” said industry analyst Sean McGowan. “It’s seen as no more than maybe a couple of good books or a nice dinner.”

Computer sales were strong over the Thanksgiving break, but the long weekend accounts for just 10% of the holiday total. Sales of business-related digital items, including personal digital assistants and home office equipment, are suffering, however.

Ace Hardware drew post-Thanksgiving crowds with discounted power tools, including a $49.99 drill that incorporates an inflator, a flashlight and a battery charger. Sales of smoke detectors and window security devices are up by 25%. Amazon.com and the Good Guys electronics chain are doing a brisk business in hand-cranked flashlights and emergency radios.

Market researchers say it’s too early to determine if buying patterns are set in stone. Flashlights, batteries and candles were hot-selling items in the weeks immediately after Sept. 11, according to AC Nielsen, but since have slowed to a normal pace.

Similarly, consumers who initially stockpiled frozen goods have largely returned to customary shopping patterns.

Bookstores note that fiction titles, which sat on the shelves in the wake of the terrorist attacks as consumers buried their noses in newspapers and newsmagazines, are starting to gain ground. Books about computers and the stock market also have stalled. There are some hot sellers, though, including books by former General Electric chief Jack Welch and golf’s Tiger Woods.

Some trends, though, defy explanation. Sears, Roebuck & Co. isn’t selling many snow shovels, but stores in the Northeast and Midwest say snow blowers are rolling out the door.

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Staying Home

It’s a digital holiday season, with new video game consoles and low-cost DVD players among the hotter items. Consumers are staying close to home and spending on products they can use at home.

What’s Hot Low-cost DVD players

Holiday decorations

Home security devices

Road atlases

Duraflame logs

History books

Hand-crank flashlights

Table tennis

What’s Not

VCRS (at any price)

Snow shovels

High-end computers