Crime Rate Continues Downward Trend in ’01

Violent crime resumed its gradual decrease in the first half of the year despite slightly more murders and robberies, the FBI reported Monday.

The drop in major crimes nationally was calculated at 1.3%, compared with the same period last year, as reported by local and state law enforcement agencies. Many of the nation’s largest cities reported lower overall crime rates, although Los Angeles showed a jump--from 87,887 violent crimes last year to 91,426 in 2001 when comparing the two six-month periods.

The decline in the nation’s major crime rate represented the resumption of a long-running decrease. Last year, the FBI said serious crimes leveled off after a steep eight-year drop, leading some criminal justice experts to wonder whether U.S. crime rates may be heading higher.

Lower crime rates generally have been attributed to improved police tactics, more officers walking neighborhood beats and the demise of the crack cocaine markets that helped send crime soaring in the late 1980s.

The vibrant economy also contributed to the steady decline in violent crime in the 1990s, authorities said--especially the historically low unemployment rate. But last year, crime fell only marginally and many criminologists forecast that rates would begin to rise again this year.

In Los Angeles, murders were down slightly, from 240 to 238, and reported rapes dropped from 734 in 2000 to 652 this year. The biggest increases were in property crimes such as robberies (to 7,902, from 7,274), larcenies (to 39,594, from 37,218), and burglaries (to 12,042, from 11,789).

By region, crime totals fell 4% in the Northeast and nearly 2% in the Midwest, but rose 1.6% in the West and 0.8% in the South. There was no state-by-state breakdown.

While there were no figures for Orange County, violent crimes rose in Anaheim, to 5,561 for the first six months of 2001 from 4,730 during the same period last year. Fullerton was up from 1,901, to 2,157; and Huntington Beach declined from 2,258, to 2,147.

James A. Fox, a criminal justice professor at Northeastern University in Boston, said the latest figures signal that “we shouldn’t count on crime dropping much more.”

“Crime levels are flat. The great 1990s crime drop is over.”

Alfred Blumstein, a criminologist at the Carnegie Mellon Institute in Pittsburgh, agreed that the decline in violent crimes should not be cause for elation because “the figures are basically flat.”

“What the story will be in the second half of 2001 is uncertain,” he added. “A lot of factors are changing post-Sept. 11. There is likely a diversion of police efforts away from street crime to the threat of terrorism, and our economic slump could lead to more crime as we experience a reduction in services for those in the lower socioeconomic groups.”

Walter J. Dickey, a law professor and crime expert at the University of Wisconsin, said few Americans will be heartened by the marginal decrease in crime rates.

“People have a sense of when they’re safe or unsafe in their neighborhoods, and crime statistics have little to do with it,” he said. “For someone who shops at a nearby mall, a 10% drop in muggings from 30 to 27 doesn’t make them feel safer. In fact, it’s irrelevant.”

The FBI crime report is based on data reported voluntarily from 17,000 local and state law enforcement agencies representing 94% of the U.S. population.