Something Familiar This Way Comes

With the curtain going up on 2001 amid rising costs, labor uncertainty and decreasing ticket sales despite “record” box office, Hollywood is betting unusually heavily this year on so-called “tent-pole” titles, many of them sequels or big star vehicles.

Preordained “event” movies such as “Hannibal,” “Pearl Harbor,” “Planet of the Apes,” “Lord of the Rings” (the first of a trilogy) and “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone” lead an unusually heavy lineup of high-profile projects as the motion picture industry struggles to seduce the occasional moviegoer to theaters more often and push actual ticket sales forward.

“On paper, it looks like a record year,” says Paul Dergarabedian of box-office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations. “I’ve never seen such a preponderance of tent-pole titles from sequels to original films like ‘Pearl Harbor,’ ‘Harry Potter’ and ‘A.I.’ Usually there are fewer, and they’re spread out throughout the year. This year, they’ll be coming fast and furious,” and also heavily clustered in the summer and year-end holiday periods.

While revenue has increased each year for the past nine years, actual admissions have declined somewhat in the last two. And, according to Variety, foreign admissions were down a sharp 10% last year, which is even more worrisome since the major studios have relied on the continued growth of the international market to cover ever-rising costs of production and, especially, marketing.

The benchmark blockbuster gross used to be $100 million, and that’s still a good figure for some releases. But these days, event movies cost more than that just to make, plus another $50 million to market, and studios get back only about half of box office revenue in the form of film rentals. Ancillary income from video sales and licensing to broadcast and cable TV networks are crucial too, but first-run theatrical box office is the engine that drives those secondary revenue streams.

As ticket prices increase both here and abroad, audiences other than the most frequent moviegoers are attending only the more highly touted films and waiting for the rest to reach video and DVD or television. So the industry is hoping that by increasing the number of “must-see” films with name recognition (such as sequels) or A-list stars, there’ll be more movies that gross between $300 million and $500 million worldwide.

Last year, such films as “M:I-2,” “Gladiator,” “Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas,” “Dinosaur” and “The Perfect Storm” met those worldwide goals, and hopes are pinned on several major films in the coming year to follow in their footsteps.

A Tough Year to Predict

Every year, former 20th Century Fox senior executive Tom Sherak, who is now a principal at Revolution Studios, handicaps what he thinks the top five movies will be. “I can’t do that this year. You have to stretch out the list to at least seven--possibly more.” As the last few weeks of 2000 and the first weeks of 2001 have proved, the adage about the box office being able to expand only so much doesn’t seem to apply anymore. Part of it had to do with good films being released, says Sherak. The threat of a recession also traditionally works in the industry’s favor. “When the economy turns downward, people head for the movies.”

According to Dergarabedian, the first of the many potential blockbusters this year will arrive as early as Feb. 9. That’s the day “Hannibal” opens. With Anthony Hopkins reprising his role as the cannibalistic Hannibal Lecter, “Hannibal” is director Ridley Scott’s sequel to the 1991 Oscar-winning “The Silence of the Lambs” and the first great hope for a comeback year at MGM.

The studio picked the February release date because of an industry theory that, in various ways, lightning strikes twice. “The date is exactly the 10th anniversary of the first film’s release,” explains MGM Vice Chairman Chris McGurk. “Hannibal” has been generating strong pre-release buzz based on what McGurk describes as a stylistic departure “that takes this beyond the realm of the typical sequel.” Another change for “Hannibal” is Julianne Moore, who steps into the shoes of FBI agent Clarice Starling, a role that garnered Jodie Foster an Academy Award the first time around.

An unusually high number of films with twos, threes and even 10s (“Jason X,” yet another in the never-say-die “Friday the 13th” series) will follow. Summer alone proffers “The Mummy Returns,” with Brendan Fraser; “Rush Hour 2,” which re-pairs Chris Tucker and Jackie Chan; “Doctor Dolittle 2,” with Eddie Murphy and his talking critters; “American Pie 2”; “Scary Movie 2”; as well as “Jurassic Park III.” Before that, there’ll be “Pokemon 3” and “Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles,” the third in the Paul Hogan series.

Though sequels cost more than the originals and only rarely out-gross their predecessors, they do offer easy marketing hooks with built-in name recognition, and often earn impressive opening weekend grosses, a gamble with which studio executives seem more comfortable than taking chances on riskier material or less widely recognized talent.

Timing Is Critical

As in past years, the success or failure of this year’s crop of follow-ups will depend on timing and execution. Is it too early for another “Scary Movie,” too late for a return to “Jurassic Park”? Will “The Mummy Returns” and “Rush Hour 2” be good enough to keep the franchise going (as did “M:I-2” and “Toy Story 2”), or will they signal the end of the series? All of the studios claim their sequels are bigger, better and more enjoyable than the originals, but “Mummy Returns” director Stephen Sommers is adamant: “The Pygmy corpses alone are worth the price of admission.”

Director Peter Jackson’s lavish version of Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” arrives Dec. 19 complete with two sequels at the ready, which will follow over the next two years. “It’s the first time this has ever been done, making three movies at the same time,” says Mark Ordesky, the New Line Cinema films’ production executive. The beloved fantasy trilogy boasts a gargantuan price tag (reportedly $270 million for the three films) and premieres about the same time as another potential blockbuster adaptation, “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone,” based on the book that almost single-handedly resuscitated the written word for children under the age of 10--and enchanted some grown-ups as well. “I think the two films will complement one another,” says Ordesky, who points out that “ ‘Lord of the Rings’ was the ‘Harry Potter’ of the previous generation.” Filmed entirely in Middle Earth (actually New Zealand), “Rings” features such stalwarts as Ian McKellen and Ian Holm as well as Cate Blanchett and Viggo Mortensen, and Elijah Wood as the heroic Frodo.

“Harry Potter,” directed by Chris Columbus (“Home Alone,” “Mrs. Doubtfire”) premieres just before Thanksgiving. The eponymous schoolboy will be portrayed by a British unknown, Daniel Radcliffe, and supported by one of those indomitable character actor casts, including John Cleese, Robbie Coltrane, Richard Harris, Maggie Smith, Fiona Shaw and Alan Rickman. “What we’ve seen so far is like watching the book come to life,” says Warner Bros. head of production Lorenzo di Bonaventura. “I know the fans won’t be disappointed.” Although he acknowledged the producers have kept a lid on information about the film, he said, “We couldn’t be more confident about it.” Since author J.K. Rowling is planning seven Potter books in all, it doesn’t take a wizard to divine how many feature films could be conjured.

In addition to sequels, there will be remakes, of which one original resulted in sequels aplenty. In Tim Burton’s 21st century reinterpretation of “Planet of the Apes” (due this summer from Fox), Mark Wahlberg will play the astronaut role handled by Charlton Heston in the 1968 original, the first of several in the series. The film’s producer, Richard Zanuck, was the executive at 20th Century Fox who green-lighted the original and says this one will have a different surprise ending from the original--in which the hero discovers he’s been on post-apocalyptic Earth all along--”but if I told you, it wouldn’t be a surprise.”

Teen heartthrob Chris Klein (“American Pie”) will strap on skates this summer in a new version of the sci-fi action film “Rollerball”--about a deadly serious sports match--that, it’s worth mentioning, was not a hit in its original 1975 incarnation. The redo of gimmick-meister William Castle’s haunted house film “13 Ghosts” arrives with more expensive production values (due probably around Halloween). “Down to Earth” (due in February) is essentially a reworking of the Warren Beatty hit film “Heaven Can Wait” (itself a remake of “Here Comes Mr. Jordan”), this time starring Chris Rock. Steven Soderbergh, who made two socially relevant dramas last year (“Erin Brockovich” and “Traffic”), will have some fun with a star-studded remake of the Rat Pack, Vegas-caper film “Ocean’s Eleven,” featuring George Clooney, Matt Damon, Julia Roberts and Brad Pitt, and due out during the holiday season. The fact that it’s based on a not-so-good film that got by mostly on attitude “actually made it easier for us,” says Di Bonaventura. The studio is betting that the powerhouse cast and Soderbergh “at the peak of his form” will more than compensate for the absence of Ol’ Blue Eyes.

A frequent backdrop throughout the year will be World War II, in everything from romances (“Captain Corelli’s Mandolin”) to epics (“Pearl Harbor,” “Windtalkers,” “Enemy at the Gates”) to sober dramas (“Hart’s War” with Bruce Willis).

More Star Vehicles

And then there are the major star vehicles, which range from comedies to dramas to thrillers.

Damon and Pitt have projects besides “Ocean’s Eleven” on the front burner. Both will appear in thrillers this fall, the former in Robert Ludlum’s “The Bourne Identity” sometime in the fall and the latter with Robert Redford in “Spy Game” in what producers Marc Abraham and Doug Wick describe as “a buddy action movie about a CIA operative and his protege, from the period of the Vietnam War to the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

As for Roberts, she’s co-starring with Pitt this spring in the comic adventure “The Mexican” and follows it with the romantic comedy “America’s Sweethearts” opposite John Cusack. “It’s a hilarious look at Hollywood behind the scenes,” say producers Susan Arnold and Donna Roth (whose husband, Joe, is directing), “and a terrific romance besides,” which they contend makes it the perfect alternative to some of the bigger, more effects-driven, male-oriented spectaculars due in the summer.

Like Roberts, Nicolas Cage will have three screen turns this year. In two, he’ll be in uniform. In April, he romances Penelope Cruz with “Captain Corelli’s Mandolin,” director John Madden’s first film since his Oscar-winning “Shakespeare in Love.” Madden says it’s “a love triangle set against the backdrop of the Italian-occupied Greece.” As in “Shakespeare,” the hero, Corelli, pits romance against duty because Cruz’s character is betrothed to another, a Greek fisherman played by Christian Bale. Later in the year, Cage goes into the trenches again in John Woo’s “Windtalkers.” In between, he’ll take on a double role as a frustrated screenwriter and his competitive twin brother in Spike Jonze’s bizarre new comedy, “Adaptation.”

Tom Cruise will be seen only once this year, maybe because he’s so busy producing movies with partner Paula Wagner. The year-end romantic drama “Vanilla Sky” reunites him with writer-director Cameron Crowe, who worked with Cruise on “Jerry Maguire.” Based on the Spanish film “Abre Los Ojos” and co-starring ubiquitous Cruz (who was in the original), “Vanilla Sky” not only promises “many twists and turns and suspenseful surprises,” says Wagner, but will feature Crowe’s humor and some interesting “comments on today’s pop culture.”

There will also be original movies that don’t rely solely on $20-million star power or brand name recognition to lure patrons into theaters. The busy summer season promises big laughs, big emotions and, especially, big explosions. In “Pearl Harbor,” director Michael Bay will attempt to do for World War II what “Titanic” did for ocean liners--bring “an intimate love story to an epic David Lean-style backdrop,” according to producer Jerry Bruckheimer. A totally different adventure, with the emphasis on a female hero, is “Tomb Raider,” in which Angelina Jolie will attempt to out-kick and outsmart her opponents in a live-action version of the video game. Feature film translations of video games have rarely worked in the past, but director Simon West promises his will be different. “We’re not making an exploitation picture,” West says. “It’s a legitimate action film with a great deal of humor. We’ve taken a cool character, who’s a cross between James Bond and Indiana Jones, and fleshed her out into a real action adventure movie.”

Several films stand out because there’s nothing else like them. Any film by Steven Spielberg is an a priori event, and his sci-fi film “A.I. Artificial Intelligence,” starring Jude Law and Haley Joel Osment and based on an idea by the late Stanley Kubrick, should be no exception.

In May, Australian director Baz Luhrmann’s musical drama “Moulin Rouge” arrives with co-stars Kidman and Ewan McGregor doing their own singing. “Rouge” was originally scheduled for last Christmas, but that proved too optimistic considering the amount of post-production work needed. Production and costume designer Catherine Martin, who happens to be married to the director, says it will be worth the wait. “What Baz is trying to do is extremely ambitious, incorporating 300 visual effects to create Paris in this new musical form,” she says. Australian actor Heath Ledger, who fought the American revolution last summer with Mel Gibson in “The Patriot,” is going medieval in “A Knight’s Tale” this summer. It sounds like “Gladiator” meets “Camelot” with what producer Todd Black calls “‘great jousting scenes and romance.”

Animated Contenders

In advance of the inauguration of the Oscar category for animated feature film, there’ll be a good half-dozen candidates in the summer alone. Despite the family film washout last summer, when movies like “Titan A.E.” and “The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle” tanked, Di Bonaventura says that if animated family movies work, they can all coexist.

Summer offers two additional months, and kids are out of school for much of that period. Warner Bros. has two new entries that could revive the studio’s animation division: The first is “Cats & Dogs,” a fantasy featuring Jeff Goldblum and Elizabeth Perkins in the flesh and Alec Baldwin and Susan Sarandon as computer-generated critters. (Baldwin will also be heard, with Ving Rhames, in another computer-generated film, Sony’s “Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within,” based on the PlayStation game.) The second, “Osmosis Jones,” mixes live action and traditional cel animation, with the Farrelly brothers directing Bill Murray and Chris Elliott in the live-action sequences.

The title character in the computer-animated “Shrek” is voiced by Mike Myers, with assists from Cameron Diaz and Eddie Murphy. Director Andrew Adamson describes it as a “fractured fairy tale that incorporates many of the elements of a full-scale live-action comedy adventure.” And Michael J. Fox speaks for the animated hero Milo Thatch as he goes off in search of “Atlantis: The Lost Empire,” which represents Disney’s annual summer entry. “But it’s a real departure,” says producer Don Hahn, “no songs and wide-screen adventure about a guy who discovers a utopian society at the center of the Earth.”

At the end of the year, Pixar, the “Toy Story” company, will download another computer-animated film, “Monsters Inc.” with Billy Crystal and John Goodman doing the talking. Pixar’s John Lasseter, the film’s executive producer, promises the story will be as detailed and rich as the company’s previous two blockbusters. “It’s about monsters who live in their own world and enter the real world through closets in order to scare kids.” The screams, it seems, can be converted to clean-burning fuel to power their world. But these monsters are as afraid of kids as the kids are of them, which should offer plenty of comic potential.

Adam Sandler is producing and voicing an as-yet untitled animated film about a slacker and a basketball coach. The only other family title brave enough to go up against “Harry Potter” and “Lord of the Rings” is the animated Nickelodeon production “Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius,” about a very smart kid who must save his parents from aliens.

A more benign extraterrestrial will be portrayed by Kevin Spacey in the fantasy adventure “K-PAX,” in time to warm our hearts for the holidays. Spacey will also surface as the protagonist of the film based on Annie Proulx’s “The Shipping News” opposite Julianne Moore. Director Ron Howard will make a 180-degree turn from “Grinch” next holiday season with the serious drama “A Beautiful Mind,” about a self-destructive math genius and his voyage of self-discovery. The film stars Russell Crowe and Ed Harris.

While several studios are still finalizing their holiday 2001 slots, Martin Scorsese’s big-budget “Gangs of New York” seems almost certain to muscle its way into the year-end Oscar derby. This time, his mobsters are Irish and portrayed by Daniel Day-Lewis and Leonardo DiCaprio. And finally, after many delays, Will Smith is tossing himself into the ring as Muhammad Ali in director Michael Mann’s big-screen biography of the boxing immortal.

Lest we think of the end of the year as all serious Oscar flicks, Ben Stiller reminds us that his new film, “Zoolander,” will plug us into the inherent silliness of “a male supermodel’s midlife crisis.” Co-starring is Owen Wilson, who last bugged Stiller in “Meet the Parents.”

By the time 2001 is over, some of the high-profile studio films will live up to their hype, and others will fall far short. As is true of any year, the biggest surprises will probably come from films that are, at this point, floating under the radar. But then, the chance of pure discovery has always been a part of what makes going to the movies worthwhile.

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ON LOCATION

It’s Angelina Jolie’s dream role: Lara Croft in “Tomb Raider” is a “wild animal.” Page 4

THE LISTS

You’ll be busy this year. Don’t believe us? 280 movies coming right up. Page 5

THE REST OF SUNDAY

Index page with the lineup from Theater, Performing Arts, Art and Pop Music. Page 24