Duking It Out, Round by Round

Rick Majerus stopped by for lunch Monday to help us take a stab at the portabello mushroom appetizers and the NCAA tournament field.

If you insist on a theme, let’s call it “Brackets over Briskets.”

Majerus took leave this season as Utah coach to tend to pressing health and personal issues, and more recently to serve as a spokesman for DirecTV.

It’s interesting to note three teams from Utah made the tournament--Utah State, Southern Utah and Brigham Young--but not Utah.

Memo from Utes to Majerus: Get well soon.

One may ask: How do you match wits with one of college basketball’s most nimble minds?

One’s response: Not that tough, really.

“I guarantee Duke will win its first-round game,” Majerus predicted.

Who among us could not have stepped out on that limb?

Picking a tournament bracket is not like picking apart an atom.

Your guess is probably as good as ours. The odds of picking the entire field correctly is 5.7 billion to one, so please take note of several important indicators:

* Never has a No. 16 team defeated a No. 1 in the first round--top dogs are 64-0 since the tournament expanded in 1985--so now might be a good time to hop off the Monmouth bus.

Teams seeded 15th don’t fare much better over those seeded second, going 3-61 since 1985.

Arizona, however, one of those three losing teams, is back in the field as a No. 2. In 1993, remember, Lute Olson’s Wildcats stumbled in the opening round against Santa Clara.

* Stick with the best teams. Top-seeded teams have won nine titles since 1985 and finished second six times.

* Students of history know these ninth-seeded teams have no shot at winning a title: St Joseph’s, Missouri, North Carolina Charlotte and Fresno State.

Why?

The lowest-seeded team to win the NCAA tournament was No. 8 Villanova, which defeated No. 1 Georgetown in the title game in 1985. And to pull that off, Villanova had to make 22 of 28 field-goal attempts and 22 of its 27 free throws--and still won by only two points, 66-64.

North Carolina State’s victory over Houston in 1983, that miracle of miracles?

Actually, Jim Valvano’s team was seeded sixth in the West that year.

* The best chance for upsets in the early rounds? A No. 11 has defeated a No. 6 19 times, and a No. 12 has knocked out a No. 5 on 18 occasions.

Let’s cut to the brackets chase: Majerus vs. Mr. Madness, coach vs. writer, winner gets to coach Utah next season?

EAST REGIONAL

FIRST ROUND

Majerus comes out swinging: He takes No. 1 Duke over No. 16 Monmouth, No. 8 Georgia over No. 9 Missouri, No. 5 Ohio State over No. 12 Utah State, No. 4 UCLA over No. 13 Hofstra, No. 11 Oklahoma State over No. 6 USC, No. 3 Boston College over No. 14 Southern Utah, No. 10 Creighton over No. 7 Iowa and No. 2 Kentucky over No. 15 Holy Cross.

Two upsets in eight games.

Georgia over Missouri? “Georgia, they’re so big inside.”

Oklahoma State over USC? “That may be colored more in my heart than in my head.”

Creighton over Iowa? Majerus thinks the Missouri Valley Conference is underrated.

Writer’s retort: Instant karma. Coach and scribe acutely attuned to all first-round nuances, although I think Hofstra makes UCLA sweat.

SECOND ROUND

Majerus takes Duke over Georgia, Ohio State over UCLA, Oklahoma State over Boston College, Kentucky over Creighton.

Majerus breakdown: Ohio State over UCLA: “No one can predict UCLA. How can you lose to Cal by 29 and beat Stanford at home within 48 hours?”

Oklahoma State over Boston College? “I think the Big 12 is a tougher conference than the Big East.”

Writer takes Duke over Georgia, UCLA over Ohio State, Oklahoma State over Boston College and Kentucky over Creighton.

Coach and writer differ on only UCLA-Ohio State.

The key matchup is at center, Ken Johnson of Ohio State vs. Dan Gadzuric. I’m guessing Gadzuric can stay out of foul trouble because Johnson is a great defender but not a huge offensive threat.

SEMIFINALS

Majerus likes Duke over Ohio State and Kentucky over Oklahoma State.

Coach’s logic: Majerus says Duke is golden so long as Jason Williams’ ankle holds up.

Writer’s retort: Duke over UCLA and Kentucky over Oklahoma State.

Writer’s logic: Mike Krzyzewski vs. Steve Lavin. Who would you bet against: coach of the last two decades or Pac-10 coach of the year?

FINAL

Majerus: Duke over Kentucky.

Coach’s logic: Duke, with a caveat. “All bets off if Williams is hurt.”

Writer’s retort: Duke over Kentucky. Let’s hope it’s as good as the 1992 classic.

WEST REGIONAL

FIRST ROUND

Majerus takes No. 1 Stanford over No. 16 North Carolina Greensboro, No. 8 Georgia Tech over No. 9 St. Joseph’s, No. 5 Cincinnati over No. 12 Brigham Young, No. 4 Indiana over No. 13 Kent State, No. 6 Wisconsin over No. 11 Georgia State, No. 3 Maryland over No. 14 George Mason, No. 10 Georgetown over No. 7 Arkansas, No. 2 Iowa State over No. 15 Hampton.

Majerus goes with all the favorites except Arkansas.

Georgetown over Arkansas? “It’s going to be a great game. They’re teams with two similar styles.”

Writer sides with favorites Stanford, Wisconsin, Indiana, Maryland and Iowa State, but picks underdog St. Joseph’s over Georgia Tech, BYU over Cincinnati and Arkansas over Georgetown.

St. Joe’s has a great point guard in freshman Jameer Nelson and a funny coach in Phil Martelli. I prefer BYU’s graduation rate to Cincinnati’s and I’d take Georgetown if the Hoyas still had Iverson.

SECOND ROUND

Majerus takes Stanford over Georgia Tech, Indiana over Cincinnati, Wisconsin over Maryland, Iowa State over Georgetown.

Coach’s breakdown: Stanford over Georgia Tech? “They go inside and get Tech in foul trouble.”

Indiana over Cincinnati? “I think Kirk Haston was MVP of the Big Ten.”

Wisconsin over Maryland: “They already played once. Dick Bennett’s last game. Wisconsin won in overtime. Tournament play is more a half-court game.”

Editor’s note: Majerus grew up in Wisconsin.

Writer goes with Stanford over St. Joe’s, Indiana over BYU, Maryland over Wisconsin, Iowa State over Arkansas.

Writer’s logic in Maryland over Wisconsin?

I’m not from Wisconsin.

SEMIFINALS

Majerus goes with Stanford over Indiana and Wisconsin over Iowa State.

Coach’s logic: “Stanford’s senior class comes through; Wisconsin’s inside guys will dominate Iowa State.”

Writer’s retort: Stanford over Indiana and Maryland over Iowa State.

Writer’s logic: The time has come for Stanford and Maryland Coach Gary Williams.

FINAL

Majerus finally gets off the Wisconsin cheese truck and picks Stanford over Wisconsin.

Writer stays on the brain train and picks Stanford over Maryland.

MIDWEST REGIONAL

FIRST ROUND

Majerus takes No. 1 Illinois over No. 16 Northwestern State, No. 9 Charlotte over No. 8 Tennessee, No. 5 Syracuse over No. 12 Hawaii, No. 4 Kansas over No. 13 Cal State Northridge, No. 11 Xavier over No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 3 Mississippi over No. 14 Iona, No. 7 Wake Forest over No. 10 Butler, No. 2 Arizona over No. 15 Eastern Illinois.

Coach’s breakdown:

Charlotte over Tennessee?

“Tennessee is erratic and discombobulated.” Xavier over Notre Dame? “Xavier’s pressure disrupts Troy Murphy.”

Writer agrees with coach on six of eight choices. However, I’ll take Tennessee Head Cases over Charlotte and Butler in an upset over Wake Forest.

SECOND ROUND

Majerus goes with Illinois over Charlotte, Kansas over Syracuse, Mississippi over Xavier, Wake Forest over Arizona.

Wake Forest over Arizona? “I don’t like Arizona. Lot of chiefs, no Indians.”

Writer’s retort: I go with Illinois, Kansas, Mississippi and Arizona.

Writer has no reservations about Arizona.

SEMIFINALS

Majerus takes Illinois over Kansas and Wake Forest over Mississippi.

Coach’s logic: “Illinois is too talented, too deep. I like Wake.”

Writer says it’s going to be Illinois over Kansas and Arizona over Mississippi.

FINAL

Majerus picks Illinois over Wake Forest.

Writer says Arizona over Illinois.

SOUTH REGIONAL

FIRST ROUND

Majerus takes No. 1 Michigan State over No. 16 Alabama State, No. 8 California over No. 9 Fresno State, No. 12 Gonzaga over No. 5 Virginia, No. 4 Oklahoma over No. 13 Indiana State, No. 6 Texas over No. 11 Temple, No. 3 Florida over No. 14 Western Kentucky, No. 10 Providence over No. 7 Penn State, No. 2 North Carolina over No. 15 Princeton.

Majerus on Gonzaga over Virginia: “These are two teams on the opposite ends of the spectrum of basketball life.”

Writer’s retort: I’m with Majerus on all fronts here except I like Penn State to hold serve against Providence.

SECOND ROUND

Majerus goes with Michigan State over Cal, Oklahoma over Gonzaga, Florida over Texas and North Carolina over Providence.

Oklahoma over Gonzaga? “Better athletes, tougher schedule.”

Florida over Texas? “I love Teddy Dupay.”

Writer’s retort: I also like Michigan State, Florida and North Carolina, but I’m going to zig and take Gonzaga over Oklahoma because of the Zags’ recent tournament success and guard Dan Dickau.

SEMIFINALS

Majerus takes Michigan State over Oklahoma and Florida over North Carolina.

“Michigan State has too much experience and Florida can play better in the half-court because Dupay can control the tempo.”

Writer abandons all original thought and also picks Michigan State and Florida.

FINALS

Majerus and writer pick Michigan State over Florida.

Talk about two peas in a pod.

FINAL FOUR

Majerus takes Duke over Stanford and Illinois over Michigan State.

Coach’s breakdown: “Duke has four guys that can hit the three and Stanford has two.”

If you haven’t guessed, Majerus is enamored of Illinois.

Writer takes Stanford over Duke and Arizona over Michigan State.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Majerus picks Illinois over Duke.

He says new Coach Bill Self inherited a treasure trove from old coach.

“If Self wins, I think he should give half his check to Lon Kruger.”

Writer takes Stanford over Arizona.

The Pac-10 has never had two teams in the same Final Four. This could be the year.

Stanford? Well, you’d pick the Cardinal too if one of your managing editors was an alum who sometimes reads all the way to the end of stories.

What? You say Bob Knight also picked Stanford to win it all on https://www.sandbox.com?

That only proves Knight and I have forgotten more about the bracket game than all you people combined are ever going to know.