Fickle TV Viewers Keep Networks on Their Toes

In a year when writers felt compelled to square off with studios demanding more respect, network fortunes perhaps appropriately shifted on two series, “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” and “Survivor,” neither of which includes the term “writer” in its credits.

As quickly as the phrase “Is that your final answer?” helped alter the face of prime time and vault ABC atop the ratings, “Survivor” has done the same for CBS, albeit by the narrowest of margins.

At the same time, “Millionaire’s” descent from its heights a year ago brought ABC down along with it both during the May rating sweeps, which concluded Wednesday; and the 2000-01 television season, which began in October (delayed by the Summer Olympics) and ended along with the sweeps.

The speed with which alternative formats have fallen into and out of favor with viewers has made the dynamics of network television even more mercurial. Programmers feel pressure to cash in on such fare immediately, fueling short-term thinking in a business some critics say already suffers from a mentality that emphasizes this quarter’s earnings over taking the time to nurture programs.

NBC, for example, having sipped from the same well with its own British quiz import, “Weakest Link,” conceded the decision to schedule the series twice a week in September came in part because executives have no idea how long the program’s popularity will endure.

As Fox Entertainment Group Chairman Sandy Grushow observed during one of the network conference calls with reporters this week, “These things do have limited life spans, and you need to get while the getting’s good.”

By contrast, sitcoms or dramas that capture the public’s fancy can generally bring them back for years. “Law & Order” and “The Simpsons” have both run more than a decade, and top series such as “ER,” “Friends,” “NYPD Blue,” “Frasier” and “The X-Files” have all played seven years or more, which still qualifies them as whippersnappers next to “Monday Night Football” and “60 Minutes.”

A year ago, CBS Television President Leslie Moonves suggested ABC officials “banked their future on a single show” by devoting nearly a fifth of the network’s 22-hour fall lineup to “Millionaire,” placing its hopes squarely on Regis Philbin’s shoulders.

Still, “Millionaire’s” transformation from phenomenon to TV show came faster than anyone anticipated. On a per-episode basis, the program lost more than a third of its audience compared with last season--a drop of 9.6 million viewers, with ratings diving even more precipitously among young adults, who gravitated to newer concepts such as “Survivor” and Fox’s “Temptation Island.”

So while ABC has harvested several hundred million dollars in profit from “Millionaire,” which was televised four times as often as any other prime-time series, the network simultaneously watched its competitive position dwindle. That includes a fourth-place finish among adults age 18 to 49--the key criterion for media buyers--during the four-week sweeps period, conducted solely for the purpose of setting ad rates.

“Clearly, we are not thrilled with our performance this May,” ABC Television Entertainment Group co-Chairman Lloyd Braun said.

Yet given the rapid decline and ascent of these formats, Braun didn’t entirely sound like someone grasping at straws by adding, “All of us are one big hit away from being No. 1. We didn’t have the big hit this year. CBS did.”

For the season, ABC slipped to 12.51 million viewers during an average minute of prime time, a 12% decrease versus the corresponding stretch a year ago. Buoyed by the second “Survivor,” which joined CBS’ lineup in February, and sleeper drama “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation,” CBS increased its average audience marginally, to 12.53 million.

CBS has announced two more installments of “Survivor” for next season, but given “Millionaire’s” fate, network officials forced themselves to temper their enthusiasm even as they crowed about their success.

“We’re guardedly optimistic it’s going to be around for a while,” Moonves said, maintaining “Survivor” has exhibited “no signs of slowing down” despite the disparity between the audience that viewed last August’s finale--nearly 52 million people--and the 36 million who tuned in for the second-edition payoff in May.

Televising this year’s Super Bowl further enhanced CBS’ outlook, while NBC laid some blame for its results on another football league, the since-defunct XFL, which posted historically low ratings over its 11-week run.

“We’ve taken to looking at things with and without the XFL,” said NBC Entertainment President Jeff Zucker, who went on to say NBC is “incredibly confident that we will win next season”--a claim that appears less bold given that NBC will broadcast the Winter Olympics in February.

NBC saw its prime-time audience decline 6%, to 11.6 million viewers, though the network remains first in young-adult demographics, the networks’ top priority because of its financial implications.

A similar pattern occurred during sweeps, as NBC ranked first on a key-demographic basis but finished behind CBS in overall viewing, averaging 12.2 million people to CBS’ 12.7 million. ABC and Fox delivered 10.9 million and 8.8 million viewers, respectively.

Fortified by series such as “Boston Public” and “That ‘70s Show,” meanwhile, Fox enjoyed a 7% viewership increase for the season, to 9.6 million, and trailed only NBC in terms of younger viewers for both the season and the May sweeps.

In terms of newer networks, the WB exhibited growth after a downturn last year in averaging 3.75 million viewers, putting the network a mere 10,000 ahead of UPN. (The WB is part-owned by Tribune Co., which owns the Los Angeles Times.)

While viewing of the broadcast networks dipped about 4% from the 1999-2000 campaign, advertiser-supported cable rose 7%. Gains, however, are attributable to the introduction of new channels, as audience for top cable networks such as TBS and Nickelodeon has flattened as well in the face of new competitors.

“The growth of cable as a medium overall has been driven by the new networks coming in, adding audience on top of [existing channels],” said Tim Brooks, senior vice president of research at Lifetime, currently the most-watched basic cable network.

Though network officials have taken some pride in the fact series such as “Survivor” and “Temptation Island” lure audiences back to the major networks, expanding the viewing pie, Brooks expressed reservations about lingering benefits from such programs, which boost ratings for a few weeks and then “go away for a while.”

Beyond demographics, the latest network obsession involves median viewing age, meaning equal numbers of viewers fall above and below a certain level. Fox remains the youngest major network by that measure, with a median viewing age of 36. (Teen-heavy WB actually skews even younger, at 29.)

NBC and ABC both crept upward to the mid-40s, while CBS lowered its median age due to “Survivor” but still possesses the oldest profile at 51--one reason the network shed “Diagnosis Murder” and “Walker, Texas Ranger,” which commanded respectable audience totals but whose demographics were anathema to the network’s sales department.

Another factor that will garner further attention if NBC has its way are so-called upscale demographics, or viewers with annual income exceeding $75,000. Despite representing a small percentage of the population, the number of potential Mercedes and BMW buyers drawn to “The West Wing” becomes an extra marketing tool for broadcasters as their ratings ebb.

“We’re really dominating this category,” said NBC West Coast President Scott Sassa--a point NBC hopes to leverage in what figures to be a significantly tighter advertising market next season.

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The Season’s Top 20 Prime-Time Series

Rank: 1. Series: “Survivor II”; Network: CBS; Viewers (in millions): 29.8; Telecasts: 12; The Lowry Lowdown: Not quite the original, but a pretty good simulation.

Rank: 2. Series: “ER”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 22.4; Telecasts: 32; The Lowry Lowdown: Still a chart-topper despite a 10% drop from previous year.

Rank: 3. Series: “Friends”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 19.7; Telecasts: 33; The Lowry Lowdown: Consider this: If each viewer paid $1, it would almost cover Matt LeBlanc’s salary.

Rank: 4. Series: “Everybody Loves Raymond”; Network: CBS; Viewers (in millions): 19.1; Telecasts: 32; The Lowry Lowdown: A rare example of a network’s patience paying off, big time.

Rank: 5. Series: “Monday Night Football”; Network: ABC; Viewers (in millions): 18.5; Telecasts: 13; The Lowry Lowdown: Off 5% despite adding Dennis Miller; but ABC blamed competition from the Olympics.

Rank: 6. Series: “The Practice”; Network: ABC; Viewers (in millions): 18.3; Telecasts: 25; The Lowry Lowdown: Jury pool grew even with lower lead-in from “Millionaire.”

Rank: 7. Series: “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire”; Network: ABC; Viewers (in millions): 17.9; Telecasts: 134; The Lowry Lowdown: Cooled faster than anyone anticipated, prompting ABC to drop two nights come fall.

Rank: 8. Series: “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation”; Network: CBS; Viewers (in millions): 17.8; Telecasts: 29; The Lowry Lowdown: Prognosticators clueless in identifying this as the season’s surprise hit.

Rank: 9. Series: “Law & Order”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 17.7; Telecasts: 31; The Lowry Lowdown: Energizer Bunny of dramas will add second spinoff come fall.

Rank: 10. Series: “Will & Grace”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 17.3; Telecasts: 31; The Lowry Lowdown: Taking a hit from “CSI,” looked shaky as a “Must-See TV” anchor.

Rank: 11. Series: “The West Wing”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 17.0; Telecasts: 30; The Lowry Lowdown: Polls show 32% increase in Nielsen approval rating over first term.

Rank: 12. Series: “Temptation Island”; Network: Fox; Viewers (in millions): 16.6; Telecasts: 7; The Lowry Lowdown: Proof that a lot of women age 18-49 will believe anything.

Rank: 13. Series: “Becker”; Network: CBS; Viewers (in millions): 16.1; Telecasts: 28; The Lowry Lowdown: Everybody doesn’t love it, but remains a solid player after “Raymond.”

Rank: 14. Series: “Frasier”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 15.9; Telecasts: 31; The Lowry Lowdown: Proved its mettle (and earned sweet renewal deal) by dominating new Tuesday slot.

Rank: 15. Series: “60 Minutes”; Network: CBS; Viewers (in millions): 15.8; Telecasts: 30; The Lowry Lowdown: Still the granddaddy of news mags, despite 8% loss in circulation.

Rank: 16. Series: “Just Shoot Me”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 15.6; Telecasts: 28; The Lowry Lowdown: Steady but hardly spectacular following in “Will’s” wake.

Rank: 17. Series: “The Simpsons”; Network: Fox; Viewers (in millions): 14.7; Telecasts: 27; The Lowry Lowdown: Dude, this show has been on 12 years. Lisa should be in grad school by now.

Rank: 18. Series: “The Weber Show”; Network: NBC; Viewers (in millions): 14.5; Telecasts: 18; The Lowry Lowdown: Latest post-”Friends” casualty lived down to original title, “Cursed.”

Rank: 19. Series: “Malcolm in the Middle”; Network: Fox; Viewers (in millions): 14.5; Telecasts: 27; The Lowry Lowdown: The long-awaited solution to the post-”Simpsons” riddle may move in January.

Rank: 20. Series: “NYPD Blue”; Network: ABC; Viewers (in millions): 14.4; Telecasts: 20; The Lowry Lowdown: Off 9% versus last season, but the perp may have been weaker ABC Tuesday comedies.