With Defense the Key, Ravens are NFL’s Best

I like the Ravens. Actually, I love the Ravens. Their defense, their coach, their arrogance, their rookie draft pick, their front office, the way they got better during the off-season.

Of course, the Ravens are going to repeat as champions. The thing they needed, even more than a professional offense, was a renewed sense of mission. Unfortunately, the season-ending injury to running back Jamal Lewis may provide it.

But now that the Ravens have been downgraded in most quarters, they can come right out of the gates swinging instead of counter-punching. The thing we always worry about with most champs is that they’ll get complacent, they’ll presume too much. But not now that the Rams are being rated higher, and the Titans, and in some quarters the Buccaneers.

Don’t believe it. The Ravens, even with people looking to unseat them, may be better this year than last simply because they’ll no longer be half a football team. The loss of Lewis doesn’t nullify the arrival of Elvis Grbac. Having Grbac replace Trent Dilfer is like getting Samuel L. Jackson to replace Jamie Foxx. It’s an upgrade that can’t be exaggerated.

Brian Billick, a combination of Bill Walsh and Sam Wyche, points out that the difference between a 65-percent passer like Grbac and a 55-percenter like Dilfer is about 50 completions, or three per game. What it all amounts to is the Ravens won’t have to win every game 14-12, as seemed to be the case last season. There is some margin for error, which the defense probably won’t even need.

You think the Ravens’ defense can’t get any better? It can. There’s precedent for it. While the 1985 Bears defense indeed laid people to rest, the 1986 Bears defense allowed fewer points even though Buddy Ryan had gone to coach the Eagles.

Sadly and even disturbingly, Marvin Lewis is back to coordinate the defense instead of being a head coach someplace. You know how clubs usually eat off the Super Bowl champ until it’s a carcass? Well, the Ravens have their coordinator and 13 of the 14 top defensive players back from last year’s D.

My bet is those 14-12 games are going to turn into 37-17.

Yes, the Ravens will find a way to replace most of the yards figured to be gained by Lewis, who still isn’t Emmitt Smith or Walter Payton. And their schedule is only the 13th toughest in the NFL.

I’m not suggesting the Ravens are going to win in some cakewalk. Their primary challenge comes from within the same division, from Tennessee, which has the league’s best record (26-6) the last two years. I like Eddie George, I like Steve McNair, I like Steve Fisher -- but I love the Ravens.

Everywhere you look somebody’s handing the Denver Broncos the AFC West title. The Broncos play the second-weakest schedule in the league, but let’s see if all of Mike Shanahan’s changes defensively make Denver substantially better than 24th overall, and let’s see him and the players manage the Terrell Davis-Olandis Gary-Mike Anderson running back situation. I’m still taking the Raiders, having added Trace Armstrong, Charlie Garner and Jerry Rice to be the best team in that division.

In the AFC East, look for Dave Wannstedt after a first-year burst, to follow the same arc he did in Chicago, which means it’s time to nosedive. While the league is moving to more mobile quarterbacks, the Buffalo Bills chose a statue (Rob Johnson) who is pocket-dependent over a real athlete and team leader (Doug Flutie), and as a result will suffer the consequences.

I want the Colts to be good, I really do, if for no other reason than Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison are so fun to watch. The problem is Indy can’t stop anybody from running the ball on them, and they play the third toughest schedule in the league this season.

But if we’re holding a pity party for strength of schedule, say a prayer for Tampa Bay. I’ve picked Tampa Bay in this space before at least once. Warren Sapp is the Charles Barkley of the NFL. Warrick Dunn is the most inappropriately used running back in the NFL, although a third offensive coordinator in three years swears that will change. Sapp says they all should be fired, Tony Dungy and all the big-name players, if they don’t get to the championship this season. And he’s probably right. The problem is, even if Tampa plays very well week-in, week-out, they’ve got a non-division schedule that includes Philly, at Tennessee, Pittsburgh, at St. Louis, New Orleans and Baltimore.

In the NFC East, the Redskins have at least eight players everybody in the league would want and the Eagles have only four or five. But one of those is Donovan McNabb, the most exciting player in football, the NFL’s Allen Iverson. If he gets hurt, Philly has no team. If he gets help, the Eagles go deep into the playoffs.

But no further than the Saints. It doesn’t sound right to suggest the Saints could contend for the NFC championship, but they can. They’ve got all three phases (defense, offense, special teams and in that order) covered, a rising star at quarterback in Aaron Brooks, a quirky running back who’ll have a 1,800-yard season in Ricky Williams, and a tough-guy coach in Jim Haslett who is the NFC’s version of Tennessee’s Jeff Fisher. I like the Saints to beat out the Rams again, because I’m starting to get the feeling Kurt Warner’s 1999 season was like Mark Rypien’s 1991 season, a one-timer.

Okay, here we go: In the NFC the playoff teams will be the Eagles, Saints and Bucs with the Giants, Packers and Rams going in as wild cards. In the AFC the playoff teams will be the Ravens, Raiders and Colts with the Broncos, Titans and Jets going in as wild cards.

And eventually, after the Ravens beat the Titans, they’ll return to the Super Bowl where they’ll beat the New Orleans Saints who will play at home in the Superdome, but nonetheless lose to the best team in the NFL.