Clearing in the Derby Forecast

In a 90-minute span today, at tracks in Kentucky, New York and Arkansas, 25 horses will run in three races worth an aggregate $2 million, and just maybe the outcomes will douse the 128th Kentucky Derby with clarity. It’s about time.

After three months of prep races for the Derby, which will be run three weeks from today in Louisville, 70 miles east of here, all this crop of 3-year-olds has proved is that this is a fasten-your-seat-belts year. No one of sound mind projects a Triple Crown sweep anymore, because such prognosticators have been wrong for 23 years, and this time around nobody would dare suggest that the same horse might win two of the three races in the demanding five-week series.

It is frustrating enough that no horse has done enough in the preliminaries to qualify as a compelling Derby favorite. The winners of these preps are also not exempt from potshots, and that widespread uncertainty about their ability to win on May 4 has allowed trainers from California to Dubai to cling to their hopes. Consequently, there probably will be 20 starters, the maximum number, in the Derby for the first time since 1984, which would ensure a roughhouse running that will leave half the field with excuses.

Today’s card starts with the $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where the last two Derby winners--Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus--prepped. Half an hour later, at Keeneland, Harlan’s Holiday can become a lukewarm Derby favorite by beating five rivals, one that pest Booklet, in the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes.

The nightcap is the $500,000 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, where the track handicapper probably needed to pick the favorites by lot.

This is the kind of year it has been: Trainer Neil Drysdale, who won the Derby with Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, has two candidates, neither bred in the U.S. Flying Dash, a German-bred, won his American debut at Keeneland a week ago. Today, Drysdale will saddle Sunday Break, a Japanese-bred, in the Wood.

Should Fusao Sekiguchi, who also campaigned Fusaichi Pegasus, green-light Flying Dash into the Derby, Drysdale will first run him at Keeneland--in the colt’s debut on dirt--next Saturday in the Lexington Stakes.

“There are about 35,000 horses bred in the U.S. every year,” said Drysdale, musing about the beginnings of his two horses. “Where are they all?”

Only four foreign-breds have won the Derby, none since the Canadian import Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

Harlan’s Holiday is as American as Uncle Sam, but he bears the stigma of being an Ohio-bred, one of whom hasn’t won the Derby since Wintergreen in 1909.

“I still think it’s been a good thing that he’s an Ohio-bred,” said trainer Ken McPeek. “He was able to run early in races restricted to Ohio-breds, and those two wins helped get his career rolling.”

Elevated to open company, Harlan’s Holiday won only one of three meetings with Booklet in Florida this winter, but scored the lone victory in the most important race, the Florida Derby, a month ago. Harlan’s Holiday is the 6-5 favorite on the Blue Grass morning line but many expect Booklet, the 5-2 second choice, to even the score. The Keeneland track frequently favors horses with the kind of early foot that Booklet possesses and, unlike the Florida Derby, there are no speed-crazy horses that might run Booklet into the ground, the way Smooth Jazz did at Gulfstream Park.

Rounding out the field are Azillion, Bob’s Image, Ocean Sound and Straight Gin. None have ever won a graded stake. Combined for the year, that quartet has won only three of 13 starts.

In the eight-horse Wood, the favorites at respective odds of 5-2 and 3-1 are Medaglia d’Oro--”gold medal” in Italian--and Saarland, who is perhaps at an advantage with a win and a second over the track.

Combined, these two colts have run only three times this year, Medaglia d’Oro beating a good field at Santa Anita in the San Felipe in his most recent try. That was the first time trainer Bobby Frankel saddled the colt, after negotiating the deal that brought Medaglia d’Oro to his current owner, Edmund Gann, in February.

The rest of the Wood field includes Sunday Break, Buddha, Blue Burner, Nokoma, Laissezaller and Iwin.

Somewhat by default, Private Emblem is the 7-2 favorite in the 11/8-mile Arkansas Derby. The New York-bred--a horse from that state has never won the Kentucky Derby--was a soundly beaten third in his only start beyond a mile. He is trained by Steve Asmussen, who is running a second horse, Windward Passage, at 4-1. Also at 4-1 is Mr. Mellon, who broke his maiden at 11/16 miles in February and a month later notched another two-turn victory in a minor stake at Turfway Park. In this year of living uncertainly, only two improving wins like that make Mr. Mellon a colt to contemplate. Seat belts fastened?

Stopping off at Keeneland en route to Aqueduct to ride longshot Iwin in the Wood, Kent Desormeaux won Thursday’s $100,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes with the Bobby Frankel-trained Tates Creek, then added another win Friday with Neil Drysdale’s Touch Of The Blues in the $200,000 Maker’s Mark Mile. Touch Of The Blues, a 12-1 shot, was winless in six previous U.S. starts.... For Officer, make it the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland next Saturday instead of the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs.... Off the Derby trail, Mayakovsky, the fourth-place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby, is scheduled to run in the Derby Trial. The Preakness might follow.... Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, still on the fence about running U S S Tinosa in the Derby, would need a big effort from Cappuchino in today’s $150,000 California Derby at Bay Meadows to throw him into the Derby mix.... Trainer Aidan O’Brien is still considering Johannesburg and Castle Gandolfo for the Derby.