Ball of Confusion

Pure and simple, we’re blaming what the Big Ten Conference pulled this week on bowl championship series Road Rage.

In prematurely anointing Iowa for a BCS at-large berth and releasing five schools to make bowl deals Tuesday, the Big Ten was communicating this:

We’re late, we’re stuck in traffic, get out of our way because we’re ramrodding Michigan Coach Lloyd Carr’s super-charged Buick Roadmaster through police barricades and telling the BCS to eat our dust.

Funny, we can’t shake this image of a television news helicopter hovering overhead with its spotlight beamed on the runaway Big Ten vehicle.

Before Tuesday’s Big Ten getaway, there were 17 bowls stuck in line waiting for two teams to clear a tollgate: UCLA and Washington State.

Before Tuesday, the UCLA-Washington State game, moved from Nov. 16 to Saturday, by ABC, had a direct impact on 17 of 28 bowl games.

Seventeen!

The Big Ten grew so impatient it knocked over orange cones to reach its destination, specifically putting Iowa in a BCS game five days early so it could lock Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota into their bowl slots.

Still, that leaves 13 bowls in limbo (Purdue only solves half of the Sun Bowl equation; the other spot is tied to the yet-to-be-determined Pacific 10 team).

All this because UCLA has yet to play Washington State.

No one can remember one game having so much impact.

“No, never,” Shawn Schoeffler, a spokesman for the Fiesta and Insight bowls, said this week. “What’s interesting is one conference game has that much influence. It’s amazing.”

The outcome of the UCLA-Washington State game will have a domino effect on the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Holiday, Sun, Insight, Las Vegas, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Gator, Continental Tire, San Francisco and Motor City bowls.

The reason: A Washington State win probably puts two Pac-10 teams in the BCS and probably knocks Notre Dame to the Gator, which changes the bowl tie-in scenarios for the Pac-10 and Big East conferences.

If UCLA wins, the Pac-10 gets only one team in the BCS and that changes the bowl mix.

Here’s how each bowl is affected:

Rose: A UCLA win probably puts USC and Iowa in Pasadena, but a Washington State victory would leave Washington State vs. Unknown Opponent.

Sugar: If USC is not in the Rose Bowl, the Sugar might have to take USC as an automatic at-large pick.

Orange: A UCLA win allows the Orange to take Notre Dame or Kansas State as an at-large pick; a Washington State victory probably puts Iowa in the Orange.

Holiday: If UCLA wins, Washington State has a date with Shamu. If Washington State wins, the Holiday chooses from remaining Pac-10 teams. It could even jump 5-3 Arizona State to take 4-4 UCLA if the bowl was so moved by a Bruin defeat.

Sun: The Big Ten caper allowed it to sign a deal with Purdue, but the Sun can’t take a Pac-10 team until the Holiday decides.

Insight: Pittsburgh is the likely Big East school, but the Pac-10 team here will depend on what team the Sun Bowl takes.

Las Vegas: Has to wait for the Insight.

Silicon Valley: Has to wait for Las Vegas. The Silicon Valley had secured a $1.5-million line of credit this week to stay accredited.

Seattle: This is no longer a Pac-10 affiliated bowl, but it’s a fallback for Oregon if Washington State loses and drops to the Holiday. The Seattle Bowl, like the Silicon, is on shaky financial ground but appears it will be able to stage a game, at least this year.

Gator: North Carolina State is the Atlantic Coast Conference school, but the other spot goes to either the Big East or Notre Dame. If Notre Dame gets a BCS bid, the Gator would get West Virginia.

Continental Tire: If Notre Dame ends up in the Gator, West Virginia falls here.

San Francisco: Boston College or Virginia Tech, depending on what happens to Notre Dame.

Motor City: Boston College or Virginia Tech.

So, as you see, Washington State at UCLA is more than a game to determine the Pac-10 champion and, perhaps, Bruin Coach Bob Toledo’s fate.

Think of all the agents with a vested interest.

Not sports agents, travel agents.

Miami Twice

Miami loses but wins....

Holy Nebraska, could it happen again?

They used to say you could lose a game early in the college game and remain in national title contention, but don’t dare lose a game late.

That theory is all but BCS bunk now that the championship game is affected by computers, which downloaded Nebraska to the Rose Bowl last year after a 62-36 loss to Colorado.

The Cornhuskers went from bummed out in Boulder one week to waving to Regis in the Rose parade.

Naturally, we here at Scenario Central are trying to figure out why that couldn’t happen again.

Everyone knows that if Miami beats Virginia Tech on Saturday the Hurricanes will play Ohio State for the national title in the Jan. 3 Fiesta Bowl.

But there is a chance Miami could lose and still get to Tempe.

This will not come as peachy news to fans of Georgia, who are hoping a Miami loss would vault the Bulldogs to the Fiesta Bowl (provided Georgia beats Arkansas in the Southeastern Conference title game).

Let’s look at the math here.

Miami is No. 1 in this week’s BCS standings with 3.53 points, a healthy 5.50 ahead of No. 3 Georgia.

If Miami loses a close game to Virginia Tech, the key would be how far the Hurricanes fell in the Associated Press and coaches’ polls. Remember, it would Miami’s first defeat in 34 games.

If Miami dropped to No. 4 in both human polls behind Ohio State, Iowa and Georgia, it would lose three BCS poll average points, plus one point for the loss.

Georgia would gain a full point in the poll average, and then it might come down to a decimal-point battle.

Last year, Nebraska edged Colorado for the No. 2 spot by 0.05 of a point, while the year before Florida State eked out a 0.32 win over No. 3 Miami.

Miami’s chances would be enhanced if it only fell to No. 3 in the polls, ahead of Georgia. Pollsters could justify it this way: Both schools have one loss, and both played Florida. Miami crushed Florida while Georgia lost to the Gators.

If Miami and Georgia lose, USC’s chances for a national title berth also would be affected by how far Miami fell in the polls. The Trojans’ hopes would probably hinge on whether they could beat out Miami for the No. 3 poll spot. Voting writers and coaches, though, might be reluctant to drop one-loss Miami below two-loss USC.

Hurry-Up Offense

Here is the doomsday scenario that knocks USC out of the No. 4 BCS spot and possibly a major bowl. Washington State beats UCLA and Virginia Tech defeats Miami in a close game. Washington State goes to the Rose Bowl. If Miami only drops a few spots in the polls but still stays at No. 2 in the BCS, the Hurricanes would play Ohio State for the national title. If Miami wedged between Iowa and USC in the polls, Iowa might reclaim the No. 4 spot in the BCS.

With Ohio State now No. 1, the Rose Bowl takes Iowa to play Washington State and the Orange Bowl is left to select among USC, Notre Dame or Kansas State.

It wouldn’t be a shock in this case if the Orange Bowl took Kansas State, which defeated USC and would bring far more fans to the game.

Word is that Kansas State might beat Notre Dame out of the Orange Bowl in any scenario. Kansas State, ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the polls and the BCS, is promising to caravan thousands of fans to South Florida, who will tote back enough souvenirs to open a gift shop in Manhattan, Kan. A packed stadium is a must for the Orange Bowl, which has drawn an average of 5,000 less than capacity in years when it has not hosted the BCS title game. ABC might have sway, though, and the network probably would favor the higher ratings Notre Dame would garner.

The Silicon Valley and Seattle bowls avoided possible cancellation by securing the $1.5-million line of credit each needed to, um, pay the host teams. This comes as a relief to the Pac-10 as the conference is set to send its No. 6 team to the Silicon Valley Bowl, to face Fresno State. The Seattle Bowl is a fallback for Oregon in case Washington State loses and falls to the Holiday Bowl. Pac-10 Commissioner Tom Hansen said this week there would have been a “mad scramble” to place teams if either or both bowls were not certified.

For what it’s worth, on its Web site, the Silicon Valley boasts of being “the best college football bowl game on the West Coast,” which would be news to the Rose Bowl and every other West Coast bowl game ever conceived, with the exception of Seattle.

Snooping around. Why do we think the Orange Bowl might take Iowa from the Rose Bowl should Miami and Washington State win? This week, Orange Bowl officials called the Sun Bowl to find out how well Iowa traveled when the Hawkeyes played in El Paso in 1995 and 1997. The Orange Bowl was told Iowa traveled very well.

R.C. Slocum’s firing at Texas A&M; should have coaches choking on their whistles. The message is clear: If Slocum can get fired, anyone can.

Though he had a mediocre 6-6 season, Slocum leaves as the winningest coach in A&M; history with a record of 123-47-2. He never had a losing season. Truth is, winning records aren’t good enough at some schools, as UCLA’s Toledo may soon find out. Sometimes alumni simply grow weary of a coach and want a new one. Wouldn’t it be better, really, if you could lease instead of buy? UCLA fans clamoring for a coaching change need to know this: The next coach won’t come cheap. The days of UCLA saving money by bumping up eager assistants (read Toledo and basketball Coach Steve Lavin), ended the day USC agreed to pay Pete Carroll more than one $1 million a season. We expect the next UCLA coach, if there is one, will start the bidding there.