Hopefuls, Hopeless Ride AFC Bubble

So the AFC has completed 15 weeks of football, with Week 16 headed into the books Monday night, and the only teams they’ve eliminated so far are the Cincinnati Bengals and the expansion franchise. Is realignment great or what?

A look at the 14 remaining hangers-on in the AFC, otherwise known as the Conference on the Bubble, as they are currently seeded:

1. OAKLAND RAIDERS

Why they’re here: At various times this season, the Raiders have been 4-0 and surprisingly sprightly for their age; 4-4 and showing their years; 9-4 and defying the calendar; and now 9-5 after either hitting the wall or forgetting to take their medicine last Sunday in Miami. They own the top spot by virtue of a 52-25 win over Tennessee on Sept. 29.

Why they haven’t clinched: The 0-4 slump after the 4-0 start. The Raiders lost twice in Missouri and twice against California rivals San Francisco and San Diego, causing many to wonder about the old-timers’ health before November brought a second wind.

What they need to do: If San Diego loses one of its final two games, the Raiders can clinch the AFC West title by winning one more home game -- against Denver today or Kansas City next week.

Playoff-bound? Yes, but they probably need to sweep to keep home-field advantage throughout the AFC tournament.

2. TENNESSEE TITANS

Why they’re here: Steve McNair wincing through the pain and leading an 8-1 run after the Titans started 1-4 and had owner Bud Adams wondering aloud if Jeff Fisher was getting outcoached. Considering the Titans’ apparent dearth of talent -- no players voted to the Pro Bowl, or one fewer than Cincinnati got -- Fisher ought to be coach of the year by acclamation.

Why they haven’t clinched: Consecutive losses to Dallas, Cleveland, Oakland and Washington in September and October. At the time, Adams wasn’t the only one wondering about Fisher.

What they need to do: The Titans will return to the playoffs if they win at Jacksonville today or at Houston next Sunday. They win the AFC South title with one victory and one loss by Indianapolis.

Playoff-bound? Seems certain. If they sweep their last two games, and they should, and Oakland loses once, the Titans will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

3. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Why they’re here: Tommy Maddox bailed out Kordell Stewart, then Stewart bailed out Maddox. Along the way, Amos Zereoue bailed out Jerome Bettis.

Why they haven’t clinched: Coach Bill Cowher played not to lose against Atlanta and got exactly that -- a 34-34 tie. Four weeks later, the Steelers outgained Houston by 375 yards at home -- and lost by 18 points.

What they need to do: The Steelers are the only AFC division leader with more than a one-game lead in the standings. They can clinch the AFC North title by winning at Tampa Bay on Monday night. Or, more likely, with a home victory next Sunday against Baltimore.

Playoff-bound? Probably. But the Steelers figure to lose to Tampa Bay, turning their season finale into a loser-stays-home showdown with Baltimore. Cowher versus Brian Billick in a big game? Steeler fans won’t be getting much sleep for Christmas.

4. MIAMI DOLPHINS

Why they’re here: On March 8, the Dolphins traded a handful a draft picks to New Orleans for a running back named Ricky Williams.

Why they haven’t clinched: On Oct. 13, quarterback Jay Fiedler broke the thumb on his passing hand. Without him handing the ball to Williams, Miami scored 10 points in consecutive games against Buffalo, Green Bay and the New York Jets and lost them all.

What they need to do: Beat New England next Sunday in New England and they win the AFC East. Lose and they’ll need outside help to clinch a wild card.

Playoff-bound? Probably, but Saturday’s loss to Minnesota means they’ll probably open the postseason on the road, where the Dolphins are 0-4 since October.

5. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Why they’re here: With little more than used or spare parts, Tony Dungy turned one of the league’s weakest defenses into one of the best, lowering the Colts’ points-allowed average from 31 to 18. Oh, and Marvin Harrison got open a lot.

Why they haven’t clinched: Two losses to the Titans.

What they need to do: Most likely, they’ll get in by winning one of their remaining two games, both at home, against the Giants today and Jacksonville next Sunday.

Playoff-bound? Yes. The Colts have two very winnable home games. A split gets them in. A sweep, coupled with a Tennessee defeat, would give them the AFC South title.

6. DENVER BRONCOS

Why they’re here: Early on, the Broncos fooled us into thinking they were the best-balanced team in the league. Then they were routed at home on a Monday night by the Raiders. Then Brian Griese got hurt. Finally, they ended an 0-3 swoon by holding on at home against Kansas City, barely.

Why they haven’t clinched: Night games. The Broncos haven’t won a game played after sunset this season.

What they need to do: Sweep their remaining games -- at Oakland today and at home against Arizona next Sunday -- and they’re in. Lose one and they’ll need San Diego and New England to both finish 1-1.

Playoff-bound? Very shaky footing. The Broncos lost to the Raiders by 24 points in Denver. Today they play the rematch in Oakland. Should the Raiders complete the sweep, the Broncos’ postseason hopes will hinge on two other teams losing.

7. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Why they’re here: Washington owner Daniel Snyder wasn’t happy with Marty Schottenheimer’s 8-8 record last season with the Redskins, so he spent $25 million to bring in Steve Spurrier, who is now 5-9. Schottenheimer moved on to San Diego, where his keep-it-safe, keep-it-grounded approach found a willing accomplice in LaDainian Tomlinson.

Why they haven’t clinched: After a startling 6-1 start, the Chargers’ limited talent has found its level, going 2-5 since Halloween.

What they need to do: Probably sweep their last two games -- at Kansas City today, at home against Seattle next Sunday -- and root for the Raiders today.

Playoff-bound? Not likely. Priest Holmes’ hip injury helps their chances today, but the Chargers haven’t won a road game since October. After that, they need too much help.

8. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Why they’re here: Win three, lose four, win one, lose one, win three, lose one.

Why they haven’t clinched: A rough first-half schedule, resulting in consecutive losses to potential playoff teams San Diego, Miami, Green Bay and Denver.

What they need to do: The Patriots control their own destiny, and they play both of their remaining games at home. If they sweep the Jets and the Dolphins, they will win the AFC East championship.

Playoff-bound? Their chances are better than Denver’s and San Diego’s.

9. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Why they’re here: Ten games decided by eight points or fewer. Five wins, five losses.

Why they haven’t clinched: A 2-5 record at home.

What they need to do: Sweep their remaining games -- at Baltimore today, against Atlanta next Sunday -- and hope for lots of help.

Playoff-bound? Doubtful. Baltimore is desperate to win today. Atlanta could be in the same condition if the Falcons don’t clinch a wild card today.

10. NEW YORK JETS

Why they’re here: Temporary insanity on the part of Wayne Chrebet.

Why they haven’t clinched: The Jets waited too long to make the switch to Chad Pennington. Playing catch-up from October on, the Jets stumbled on the last hurdle when Chrebet tried to hurdle four Bears in Chicago and wound up losing the ball, the game and, most likely, the wild card.

What they need to do: Sweep the Patriots and the Packers and hope the Broncos, Chargers, Patriots and Browns all lose.

Playoff-bound? The Jets won’t go 2-0 against New England and Green Bay. But Pennington’s back for 2003. Not so sure about Chrebet.

11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Why they’re here: Their offense.

Why they haven’t clinched: Their defense.

What they need to do: Sweep San Diego and Oakland and pray for other miracles.

Playoff-bound? Their season ends next weekend. On the bright side, Holmes’ hip will have ample time to heal.

12. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Why they’re here: There’s no reasonable explanation. After the salary-cap implosion, the Ravens looked to be rebuilding.

Why they haven’t clinched: They’re .500. They’re playing over their heads.

What they need to do: Beat Cleveland today. Then beat Pittsburgh after the Steelers lose to Tampa Bay. It could happen.

Playoff-bound? If the Ravens and Buccaneers win at home, Baltimore will go to Pittsburgh to play for the AFC North title.

13. BUFFALO BILLS

Why they’re here: Drew Bledsoe’s first eight games in Buffalo, when the Bills went 5-3.

Why they haven’t clinched: Bledsoe’s last six games, when they went 2-4.

What they need to do: Sweep Green Bay and Cincinnati and pray for half the teams seeded above them to collapse.

Playoff-bound? Perhaps in 2003, after they draft a defense.

14. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Why they’re here: A 3-7 swoon after Tennessee’s Samari Rolle knocked out quarterback Mark Brunell on Oct. 13, leaving them 6-8.

Why they haven’t clinched: Many reasons, but Coach Tom Coughlin blames the kickers. He has cut three this season.

What they need to do: No need to get into all that, really.

Playoff-bound? They have a better chance of moving to Los Angeles for the 2003 season. Not that we want them or anything.