Sharon’s Move on Elections Seen as Boon to the U.S.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s sudden decision to dissolve parliament and call early elections was a welcome move for the Bush administration, experts said Tuesday.

“From the U.S. standpoint, it’s probably better to get this thing out of the way and have a solid government in place,” said Edward S. Walker Jr., president of the Middle East Institute in Washington and a former assistant secretary of State.

Sharon cited his desire to preserve Israel’s relationship with the United States -- and his own relationship with the White House -- in calling elections nearly 10 months early.

Forming a narrow coalition government with small, far-right parties would have placed intolerable strains on those bonds, Sharon said.

It was an extraordinary statement for a politician once considered persona non grata in Washington, seen as a loose cannon who deliberately undermined U.S. peacemaking efforts.

During the first Bush administration, as a minister in Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s government, Sharon clashed head on with then-Secretary of State James A. Baker III over the construction of new Jewish settlements.

Officially, members of the current Bush administration took a cautious approach to the news Tuesday, saying that the elections are a domestic Israeli matter.

“This is an internal issue to Israel’s democracy,” said White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer. “Israel handles its democratic issues as any good democracy should.”

And U.S. officials said they intend to press ahead with President Bush’s latest proposal for peace between the Israelis and Palestinians, known as the “road map.”

“We’re going to continue to work this process,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. “Both parties will have obligations and responsibilities in it, not dependent on a particular government.”

But Sharon’s refusal to pay the price that far-right parties were demanding to form a new governing coalition makes it less likely that the Israeli government will suddenly launch a new crackdown on the Palestinians or a new Jewish settlement drive in the West Bank -- moves likely to antagonize moderate Arab governments as the U.S. prepares for a possible war against Iraq, experts said.

“I will not do anything to change our special relationship with the U.S.,” the prime minister said. “I made it clear that I am not going to change the guidelines or the commitments that I took upon myself in my talks with the White House.”

Sharon’s eagerness to show Israeli voters that he has a solid relationship with Bush suggests that the prime minister will try to maintain the status quo of limited retaliations for Palestinian attacks and a commitment not to expel Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat.

Over the longer term, the elections may benefit the United States by giving Israel a stable government rather than one that is weak and whipsawed by rapidly shifting policies.

Six days after the left-of-center Labor Party left his coalition, Sharon dissolved the parliament, or Knesset, on Tuesday and called elections for Jan. 28. In doing so, he gave up efforts to court the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu faction, which had made a series of hard-line demands in return for a partnership.

Sharon’s move came at a time when U.S. officials have been trying to keep Israel from complicating Washington’s plans for a possible war with Iraq.

U.S. officials hope to nudge the Sharon government toward renewed negotiations with the Palestinians. The administration has offered a step-by-step plan leading to the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Just as in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the U.S. is seeking commitments from Israel not to retaliate if Iraq strikes the Jewish state with missiles or other weapons. An Israeli military response to an Iraqi attack, U.S. officials fear, could tempt other Arab countries to join Iraq in a broader regional war against Israel.

Analysts said they doubt the elections will have any effect on the peace process, which has been virtually frozen amid rounds of suicide bombings and Israeli military responses.

“This can’t hurt a peace process that doesn’t exist,” said David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington.

Makovsky said he believes that Sharon will try to do all he can to avoid disrupting the White House’s war planning at this delicate moment because the prime minister is determined to maintain his good relationship with Bush -- and also eager to see U.S. forces oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Makovsky said Sharon also won’t want to take any action that would appear too radical: History shows that Israeli elections are won “near the center of the political spectrum,” Makovsky said, adding that a drift to the right “could be electoral suicide.”