Davis’ Mudslinging May Stain Fellow Democrats in Elections to Come

Sacramento

Sure, they bucked a national Republican tide. But in their winning, California Democrats also may have sown the seeds for future defeat.

By Democrats, I mean basically Gov. Gray Davis.

Davis won’t be running for governor again, although he could seek a U.S. Senate seat. Regardless, any future Democratic candidate in California -- including the party’s 2004 presidential nominee -- could be handicapped by Davis’ attack ads this fall.

The governor was the No. 1 aggression-hawk in his campaign, sources say. During hot-tempered strategy sessions late in the contest, Davis insisted on bombarding Bill Simon Jr. relentlessly with TV attacks. Bludgeoning Simon would depress the Republican nominee’s vote and prevent him from reviving his damaged candidacy, Davis figured.

What Davis did not figure -- despite advisors’ loud warnings -- was that the negative ads also would depress his own vote. The spots drove away potential voters who lean Democrat. And nobody can be sure where they’ll be leaning when they return. Maybe Republican.

“I don’t have a problem going at an opponent with a ball-peen hammer,” says Garry South, Davis’ chief strategist. “But at some point you have to give your people a reason to get off their butts on election day and go vote for you. We didn’t give them enough reason.

“That was a factor in the pathetically low turnout.”

Other factors, South says, were:

* “A popular Republican president who campaigned [nationally] like there was no tomorrow. We had no one to counter. That was a bit demoralizing to Democrats.”

* “We were hoisted by our own petard” with legislative redistricting. Both parties united behind an incumbents-protection plan that failed to generate voter interest.

* “No galvanizing ballot measures.”

But clearly, the most demoralizing and least interesting aspect of the election for many Californians was their choice for governor. They considered Davis corrupt and calculating, Simon ignorant and inept. And both candidates aggravated the public’s sour mood with barrages of attack ads.

Davis had lost all confidence in his ability to sell himself on TV; people just wouldn’t believe him. Simon’s strategists also didn’t think their guy was credible.

When all the votes are counted, the turnout is expected to be around 50%, a record low. Davis probably will win by a mere five points, roughly 47% to 42%, compared to nearly 20 points in 1998.

The voter boycott seems to have particularly hurt Davis and Democrats.

Many moderates -- the very group this centrist governor courted throughout his first term -- simply did not vote, according to The Times’ exit poll. Neither did many Latinos, despite their soaring population. In ‘98, both groups turned out bigger for Davis.

When the disgusted voters do return, will they again be siding with Democrats? Or will they be more open to a Republican, like President Bush in 2004?

Bush lost here by 12 points in 2000. But the Nov. 5 results have revived GOP hopes in a state that Democrats must win to recapture the White House.

“After this election, I believe Bush could carry the state,” insists Tony Quinn.

Quinn -- a veteran political analyst, numbers junkie and onetime GOP aide -- called me to exclaim a Republican “glass half full” assessment of the election results, based on The Times’ exit poll and actual returns.

Of course, somebody else could look at the same numbers and see a “glass half empty.” If the GOP couldn’t oust an unpopular governor in an election with such favorable demographics, its future must be hopeless.

Dissecting the numbers, Quinn notes that:

* Moderates -- the swing voters -- constituted only 30% of the electorate, compared to 43% in 1998. As a group, they voted 16 points less for Davis this time.

“Moderates are people who don’t have strong ideological views and are less motivated to vote,” Quinn says. “They were just totally turned off.”

* Whites constituted 76% of the vote, up from 64% in 1998. They gave Simon a slight edge. Latinos amounted to only 10% of the electorate, down from 13%. Those who did vote sided with Davis by 41 points.

Why didn’t more Latinos vote? “Why should they?” replies Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, a Latino think tank.

“They were terrible campaigns.... When all you hear is ‘vote against,’ it turns off the occasional voters, who are the bread and butter of the Latino electorate. Unlike whites, we don’t have this class of chronic voters. I’m concerned that this election could have created a plateau in the expansion of Latino participation.”

So Davis and Democrats did win. But the governor may have made it easier for Republicans to win next time.