Secession Trails in the Valley for First Time

Los Angeles voters overwhelmingly oppose breaking up the city and, for the first time, the idea trails in the San Fernando Valley, birthplace of the secessionist movement, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Opposition appears particularly keen in the East Valley, home to a greater proportion of Latinos, Democrats and poorer residents than the rest of the area. Voters in the West Valley, a more conservative constituency that was behind the six-year campaign to thrust secession into the voting booth, are now closely divided on the question.

A parallel drive for Hollywood independence also is faring badly, the poll indicated. Voters in all parts of the city said they strongly oppose lopping Hollywood off from the rest of L.A.

Citywide, Valley secession is opposed by majorities of whites, Latinos and blacks. Most men oppose it, as do most women. Self-described liberals, moderates and conservatives all said they favored keeping Los Angeles whole. Majorities of Democrats and independents said they oppose Valley secession, while Republicans split evenly for and against the Valley’s quest for independence.

Compared to other poll results, the new findings suggest that secession support has faded considerably in recent months.

The new survey found that 56% of likely Los Angeles voters said they oppose Valley secession, while 27% said they favor it, with the remaining 17% undecided. Outside the Valley, 62% of respondents said they oppose letting the Valley go its own way; 18% support it and 20% were undecided.

Likely Valley voters were leaning against the measure, 47% to 42%, a gap that falls within the poll’s margin of error. Eleven percent of Valley voters said they have yet to make up their minds. Among registered voters in the Valley, the proposal was behind by six points.

Hollywood secession is even less popular. Sixty percent of likely voters citywide said they oppose that area’s bid for independence, compared to just 21% of likely voters favoring it.

The poll, supervised by Times Poll director Susan Pinkus, was conducted by telephone from Oct. 5 to Oct. 14. It surveyed 1,546 registered voters citywide, of whom 970 were likely voters. For responses based on likely voters, the poll has a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points in either direction. The survey included 464 likely Valley voters with a 5-percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Among registered voters -- a broader group than likely voters -- support for secession has fallen steadily in recent months. In June, Valley voters supported secession by a 15-point margin, though it trailed citywide by 9 points. Today, secession is losing citywide among registered voters by 32 points and trailing among voters in the Valley by 6 points.

In the Valley, support for secession has dropped particularly among the elderly, Latinos and less-affluent voters.

Under state law, the cityhood measures must carry a majority not only within the breakaway area but also in the entire city.

Mayor James K. Hahn’s $5-million L.A. United campaign and a slew of other anti-secession groups are increasingly targeting Valley renters, senior citizens, Latinos and union members with mailers and phone calls, hoping to find fertile ground for the message that cityhood is “too risky.”

The poll showed that support for secession both citywide and in the Valley dipped on Oct. 8, the fourth day of polling and the first day Hahn’s campaign began airing television spots depicting a spinning roulette wheel and a warning: “Secession is a gamble that’s not worth taking.” The percentage of voters favoring a split has since recovered slightly.

Aversion to secession, moreover, appears to be taking root with precisely the Valley voters targeted by the mayor’s campaign. In the Valley, nearly two-thirds of those with annual household incomes under $40,000 -- a group likely to include many renters -- oppose Valley cityhood.

Senior citizens also are leaning against the measure. Fifty-five percent of Valley voters 65 or older oppose secession, while 32% support it.

“Where’s the money coming from to finance this new city?” poll respondent Evelyn Burmester, a 76-year-old retired shoe saleswoman from West Hills, asked in a follow-up interview. “We’re going to have to pay Los Angeles money each year,” she said, adding that she lives on a fixed income.

All told, 54% of likely voters in the East Valley oppose Valley cityhood and 36% favor it. The margin is much tighter in the West Valley, where 42% oppose secession and 46% support it, a split within the poll’s margin of error.

While Valley secession is struggling, some of the arguments against it did not register significantly with many poll respondents. A majority of voters citywide and in the Valley said, for instance, that the possibility that a new city might abolish Los Angeles’ living-wage ordinance would not affect their vote. Opposition by the city’s employee unions did not affect many voters either.

The secession campaigns have been hobbled by setbacks for months, beginning with fund-raising troubles that left them unable to afford broadcast TV spots to beam their message to the vast Los Angeles market. Separatists also failed to marshal a high-profile slate of candidates or the armies of volunteers they once hoped for.

For secession advocates, another challenge has been to create a sense of urgency around their campaign. In part, that is made more difficult by a general sense of contentment in Los Angeles. Nearly six in 10 L.A. voters say things are going pretty well or very well in the city these days.

Jeff Bailey, 28, a medical software designer, moved to the Valley from Pasadena a few months before the cityhood proposals landed on the ballot.

“When I first moved here, I thought, ‘Maybe they’re right. Maybe they’re not getting the services they deserve for the tax dollars they put in,’ ” said Bailey, who lives in Sherman Oaks. “But ... I didn’t see all the problems they were talking about. They say the streets are terrible, but they’re not ....The police are pretty well represented. I just don’t see what they’re complaining about.”

One poll finding highlights a problem that breakup advocates confront with less than a month to go before the election. The secession campaign began with a largely conservative base. Now, with election day approaching, that base appears to be divided.

In the Valley, 45% of self-described conservatives said they support secession, while 42% oppose it. Citywide, conservatives oppose it by more than 20 percentage points.

Among likely voters who favor Valley independence, respondents cited the prospects of smaller, more efficient government and getting a fair return for their taxes as their top reasons for supporting a split.

“I think the Valley contributes more than its share to the greater city of Los Angeles,” said Les Benedict, a 58-year-old trombone player from Reseda.

Outside the Valley, that argument appears to have persuaded few voters. While 48% of Valley voters said the Valley receives less than its fair share of city services and attention, only 4% in the rest of Los Angeles agreed. Nearly three in 10 voters outside the Valley named South-Central as the region most deprived of city services.

Opponents cited their belief that secession will increase taxes and lead to higher costs all around as top reasons for rejecting a breakup.

“They have nothing to lose and everything to gain,” Benjamin Rakoff, 72, who lives in the Fairfax area, said of secession advocates. “But I have everything to lose. It will raise my taxes and, not only that, it will also be diluting our protection such as police and fire and ambulances.”

Valley voters will be asked to choose a mayor and 14 council members for their proposed city, but the winners will not take office if secession fails. That odd dynamic may account for the lack of passion for any of the mayoral contenders; a hefty 68% of Valley voters say they are not sure who they will vote for.

Assemblyman Keith Richman (R-Northridge) is leading the pack of 10 with 13% of the vote, followed by David Hernandez Jr., an insurance adjuster who claimed 5%.

“Emotionally, you think, yeah, it would be great to get away from Los Angeles,” said John Ashworth Jones, 67, of Sunland. “But even so, there’s no sense in making things worse by cutting off your nose to spite your face ....We may wind up with a very unsatisfactory city run by people who don’t know what they’re doing.”

Valley secessionists have raised the prospect of filing a lawsuit if their bid wins in the Valley but fails citywide. They argue that the Valley should be free to decide its own fate.

But the poll found that 62% of Los Angeles voters agree with the state law requiring a citywide vote. As with secession itself, Valley voters were sharply divided over the issue. Nearly half of them, 49%, said they support the current law -- while nearly half, 46%, said they oppose it.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Support Waning

Likely voters citywide oppose San Fernado Valley secession, and the measure trails in the Valley.

All Los Angeles San Fernando Valley

For Secession 27% 42%

Against Secession 56% 47%

Undecided 17% 11%

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Secession Poll

The ballot summaries of Proposition F (San Fernando Valley secession) and Proposition H (Hollywood secession) were read to city residents judged likely to vote on Nov. 5.

Proposition F

If the election were held today, would you vote for or against San Fernando Valley secession?

For Secession Against Undecided

All L.A. 27% 56% 17%

S.F. Valley 42 47 11

East Valley 36 54 10

West Valley 46 42 12

Westside 20 65 15

Central City 20 60 20

South City 13 61 26

What is the main reason you will vote for Valley secession? (asked of those voting for secession)*

All Los S.F. Rest

Angeles Valley of City Smaller, more efficient government 22% 27% 15%

Valley taxpayers should get fair return 20 25 13

Better access to city services 17 23 9

More local control 14 18 8

L.A. is too big 14 10 19

* Up to two replies accepted; most frequent responses shown.

What is the main reason you will vote against Valley secession? (asked of those voting against secession)*

All Los S.F. Rest

Angeles Valley of City

Revenue loss/ taxes will increase 14% 18% 13%

Higher costs all around 11 15 9

City works fine as is 9 11 9

Loss of resources/ weaken Valley 9 7 9

* Up to two replies accepted; most frequent responses shown.

Proposition H

If the election were held today, would you vote for or against Hollywood secession?

For Secession Against Undecided

All Los Angeles 21% 60% 19%

Westside 17 69 14

S.F. Valley 30 48 22

Central City* 20 65 15

South City 12 66 22

* Hollywood likely voters are included in the Central City subgroup; the Hollywood subgroup is too small to break out separately.

Notes: All results are among likely voters. Vote results include those who are “leaning toward” voting for or against secession. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

*

How the Poll Was Conducted:

The Times Poll contacted 2,248 adults in the city of Los Angeles, including 1,546 registered voters, by telephone Oct. 5-14. Among the registered voters, 970 are considered likely to vote. The margin of sampling error for the overall city sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points; for registered and likely voters, it is 3 points.

To increase the sample size of San Fernando Valley, Latino and African American likely voters, the main sample was supplemented to the following totals: 464 likely Valley voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5 percentage points); 215 likely Latino voters (+/- 6 points); 165 likely African American voters (+/- 8 points). The samples were then weighted to their proportionate share in the city.

Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city of Los Angeles. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, registration and area of city.

Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Asian Americans were interviewed as part of the entire sample, but there were not enough of them among likely voters to break out as a separate subgroup.